【新唐人2011年12月10日讯】大陆著名经济学家郎咸平，继10月下旬在辽宁沈阳一场演讲中预告中国经济一定破产之后，日前他在一场高端讲座演讲时，再次道出中国房地产的危机，他说如果政府打压楼市成功，房价降下来了，那中国就完了！经济学家认为，政府打压楼市是经济制度失效，甚至是政治制度全面失效的反映。
郎咸平在演讲中指出，中国绝大部分产能严重过剩，而房地产是中国最后一个支柱产业。他说，现在中国的房地产，好比一座火山，政府的打压就是想要把这个火山压住。如果压住了，熔岩不会自动消失，一定会从岩层中更为薄弱的环节漏出来，那么后果就是：恶性通货膨胀、经济再次探底，甚至引发火山爆发，最后一个支柱产业画上句号。
但是，目前，中共内部究竟要刺激经济，还是控制通涨、控制房价﹖有摇摆不定的迹象。而民众关心的是中共打压楼市，有没有胆量让房价跌到百姓买得起的程度﹖
大陆经济学家綦彦臣表示，打压房地产业最直接的利益损失，是富人承担不是穷人。而房地产崩溃以后，最受益的是城市大量买不起房的人，比如说城市特困者、毕业十年的北漂，或者蚁族。他们可能在房价剧跌以后买得起房。綦彦臣还提出，政府可以借此出台一些政策，比如说这些人可以领“首户住房”。
大陆经济学家綦彦臣：“从政策模式，政府应该拿出钱来，中央财政应该直接发这样的专项债券来收集这个钱，买那些有价无市的空房子，然后零首付卖给或者租给北漂、蚁族，还有城市特困户。”
但是，目前房地产交易量越来越少，地方财政收入在萎缩。而保障房政策是地方多出、中央少出，因此，綦彦臣认为，中国的保障房建设也不容易解决问题。
大陆经济学家綦彦臣：“房地产交易也在下行，土地出让金它拿的越来越少，也可以预期到往后是更少。中央和地方因为资金问题，准会互相扯皮，我们这已经看到了，现在就能看到了。”
綦彦臣说，中国古代就有中央收储这样的宏观调控政策，西汉中期以前也有一个“平准制度”，所以他认为，由执政当局拿钱收购房子是可行的。
大陆经济学家綦彦臣：“中国房地产市场弄到今天这个样子，是经济制度进而是政治制度全面失效的反映。如果你说这两个制度还有效，那你就拿钱收房，这是最简单的是吧？”
10月22号，郎咸平在沈阳的一场演讲中，喊出了惊人的“中国经济没救了”的声音，他根据中国制造业将要坍塌和地方债已经达到债务危机程度等因素，得出了“中国政府已经破产”、“中国将会陷入几十年大萧条”、“中国将会成为全世界最穷国家”几个结论。
对此，博客作家张宏良认为，郎咸平的依据还仅仅是中国经济的某个方面，如果考虑到中国经济的各个方面，特别是再考虑到中国政治等方面，情况可能比郎咸平想像的还要更加糟糕。
张宏良还说，眼下正在纷纷逃离中国的富豪、资本和热钱，十分明确的告诉国人：暴风雨就要来了。
新唐人记者赵心知、黄容、孙宁采访报导。
Real Estate Market Suppression
In a speech in Shenyang, Liaoning in late October,
Lang Xianping, a well-known economist in China, addressed China’s looming bankrupcy.
Recently, Lang gave a lecture using a high-end presentation.
He spoke out about the real estate crisis inChina once again.
He said if the government successfully suppressed the property market,
and housing prices decrease, China will end.
Economists believe that the government suppression of
the property market is the failure of the economic system, and even the political system.
Lang pointed out in his speech that most of China’s industries
have exceeded capacity, and real estate is the last pillar.
He said that China’s current real estate is like a volcano,
while the government wants to suppress it.
If it succeeds, the lava will not disappear,
but will leak out in other weak places,
then the consequences will be hyperinflation,
economic collapse and possible volcanic eruptions,
putting an end to the last backbone industry.
Whetherit’s stimulating the economy, or controlling inflation
and prices, The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is showing signs of wavering.
The public concern is the CCP suppression of the property market,
and if it dares to let property fall below the level people can afford.
Qi Yanchen, a mainland economist said the direct interest loss
will be paid by the rich, but not the poor.
After the real estate collapse, urban people who could not afford
a house before will benefit the most, like poor urban people,
workers from northern China who has high school degrees,
or people who live in very tiny spaces.
They may be able to afford housing in a sharp price drop.
Qi also said the government could make some policies,
such as letting these people get ‘first-family homes’.
Qi: “From the policy model, the government should allocate
the money, the central government should directly issue
special bonds to collect the money, and then buy empty houses
which nobody will buy in order to sell or lease them to the poor.
Currently there are fewer and fewer real estate transactions,
and local government revenue is shrinking.
The public housing policy is to collect more money from local
instead of centralgovernment.
So Qi believes that public housing construction is not an easy
solution to the problem.
Qi: “Now, real estate transactions are going down, and
there is less and less land transfer money coming in. It can be expected to be less in the future.
Then because of funding issues, the central and
local governments will wrangle with each other. We can see the problem even now.”
Qi said that in ancient China there was a macro-control policy
such as central purchasing and storage.
In the mid-Western Han Dynasty,
there was a ‘stabilization system’.
So he thinks that purchasing houses by the ruling authorities
is feasible.
Qi: “The state of China’s present real estate market is the
reflection of failure in the political and economic systems.
If you (CCP) say these two systems are still effective,
then you can go ahead to purchase the houses. This is the most simple way, isn’t it?"
On October 22nd, in a speech in Shenyang, Lang shouted,
“China’s economy can not be saved."
Based on China’s manufacturing industry collapse and local
governments’ debt crises, he concluded that
“China’s government is bankrupt," “China will fall into the
Great Depression a few years," “China will become the world’s poorest country."
In this regard, the blog author Zhang Hongliang believes that
Lang is just basing his opinion on some aspects of the Chinese economy,
if you take into account all aspects of the Chinese economy,
especially taking into account the political aspects, the situation may be even worse than Lang expected.
Zhang Hongliang added that currently the rich, capital and hot
money are fleeing out of China, which clearly tells people a storm is coming.
NTD reporters Zhao Xinzhi, Huang Rong and Sun Ning
