【新唐人2011年11月28日讯】中国房地产业经过惨淡的九月、十月，有“鬼城”之称的鄂尔多斯康巴什新区再度传来坏消息。有大陆媒体报导，“鬼城”的楼市已经全面崩盘，房价下跌近7成。虽然当地政府出面否认，但学者认为，“鬼城”楼市崩盘是迟早的事，这个现状也不是个例，而是房地产和金融风暴的开始。
《中国企业报》报导：据一位长期生活在鄂尔多斯的人士透露：继高利贷危机之后，“鬼城”的楼市大面积降价，已经从去年的均价每平方米10,000元暴跌至现在的3,000多元。
以当地的“金信翰林苑”项目为例，它的二手房价此前都在10,000元左右，而现在市价仅3,750元。
“鬼城”这个称号，是美国《时代》周刊对鄂尔多斯中南部康巴什新区的形容。这座由当地政府耗资170多亿打造、面积达32平方公里的新城，由于人口不多，地产供给过剩，加之配套设施不完备，虽然高楼鳞次栉比却少有人居住，一到晚上漆黑一片，如入无人的“鬼城”。
《财新网》认为，“鬼城”是由人为的房地产泡沫造成的。最新数据显示，鄂尔多斯人均拥有住房3-4套。在住房拥有率几乎100%，而空置率接近66%的情况下，只有常驻人口增长200%，而且不再建新房，才能消化这么多的房子。但以鄂尔多斯的地理位置和人文环境来看根本不可能。
据统计，目前鄂尔多斯房价是6年前的6倍，新建别墅单价超过2万。
房子卖不出去，同时，加上外地房地产商也不断进入鄂尔多斯。滞销之中，房价纷纷下跌，降价成为许多房地产商的选择。
北京师范大学学者段绍译：“在房价那么高的时刻，那么多房子没有人住的时刻，还在花那么多钱盖房子，就是错了。房地产对中国经济造成的损失，不是泡沫破灭造成的损失，而是过去错误的投资造成的损失，只是今天在这个市场回归理性的时刻集中爆发出来。
康巴什新区的管委会对于房价下跌7成的报导却不买账，声称“崩盘”之说是无稽之谈。
《华夏时报》记者对此进行了实地走访，发现当地很多楼盘售楼处空空荡荡，期成交萎靡。鄂尔多斯房产网负责人刘伟透露，当前实际降幅在20%到30%之间，只是一些开发商仍在死扛，因为降价并不一定能带来销量上升。
不过不少业内人士都认为，鄂尔多斯楼市崩盘是迟早的事儿。地产评论员顾海波表示，再不刹车，再继续荒唐地“涨幅趋缓”！再继续违背规律、违背民意，明年的今天就不只是鄂尔多斯，此类现象就会蔓延！后果更严重！
段绍译表示，鄂尔多斯本身根本不需要那么多房子，这不是真正市场的需求，而是各种投机的需要，房价崩盘是必然。
段绍译：“我认为是一种理性回归，就是说这个房地产本来就不值这么多钱。泡沫这么严重，早破早好！它这个非理性的发展，会造成很多的资源浪费。使那些本来需要资金的地方没有资金，本来需要资源的地方没有资源。”
美国南卡罗来纳大学谢田教授也认为，鄂尔多斯房价下跌7成其实很正常。
谢田：“鄂尔多斯这个鬼城，已经空房空在那有一段时间了，所以从鄂尔多斯开始也是很正常的。下一步呢，我们应该更加关注其他的鬼城，比方说郑州和其他地方一些过多建设的住宅区。这实际上不是一个个例，实际上是风暴的开始，就是说更大的风暴可能会即将来临。”
另外，谢田教授还指出，中国房地产不值得投资，因为在目前中共的政策下，民众只能购买使用权，其实支付的是租金，但比美国等发达国家的价格高很多。而在其他国家购房则是真正购买了土地和房屋财产权。
新唐人记者林莉、李明飞、萧宇采访报导。
House Prices Declined 70% in Erdos.
China’s real estate industry just went through
September and October bleak period.
The “ghost town” Kambashi District in Erdos
had more bad news coming in.
Mainland media reported the “ghost town”’ property market
has crashed,
and the house price fell nearly 70%,
though the local government denied this.
Scholars believe “ghost towns” property crash is on its way,
and this will start China’s real estate’ and financial turmoil.
Chinese Enterprises newspaper reported information
by a long time Erdos’ resident, following the crisis of usury.
It stated, the property prices in “ghost town” declined greatly,
from RMB 10,000/sq.m. last year to RMB 3,000 now.
The local “Jinxin Han Lin Yuan” project, for example,
had its second-hand house prices at ca. RMB 10,000/sq.m., but now it is only RMB 3,750/sq.m.
“Ghost Town” is the name given by the US’ Time magazine
to the Kangbashi district in south-central Erdos.
This new city costed the local government RMB 17 billion
to build on an area of 32 square kilometers.
Since there are not many people in the area,
the real estate supply is in surplus there.
Coupled with inadequate facilities, this area has few people
to live in, inspite of the rows upon rows of tall buildings.
In the evening it is all dark,
truly resembling a “ghost town”, hence its given name.
Financial News Network reported that this ghost town
is a result of the real estate bubbles.
Latest data shows housing in Erdos is 3 to 4 sets per capita,
homeownership is almost 100%, vacancy rate is ca. 66%.
Only if the resident population grows by 200%, and no new
houses get built, can the existing new houses be utilized.
However, considering the situation of the population
conditions in Erdos, this seems impossible.
According to data, house prices now in Erdos are six times
those six years ago. A new villa costs over RMB 20,000/sq.m.
Houses could not be sold, however outside real estate agents
have also been getting into Erdos.
Due to the poor sales, house prices had all fell.
Lowring prices became the choice of many real estate agents.
Duan Shaoze (scholar, Beijing Normal University): “When
the price is so high, and so many houses are empty,
if you still spend money to build new houses, that is wrong.
Real estate losses in China’s economy are not due to a bubble
burst, but to wrong past investments, which are exposed now."
Kangbashi District Administrative Committee won’t admit
70% fall in house prices, claiming this to be a nonsense.
China Times reporter visited the site and said many local
real estate sales offices to be empty or with sluggish turnover.
Liu Wei, real estate network director in Erdos said,
the actual decline is currently between 20% and 30%.
Some developers still hold up the prices, despite difficulties,
thinking price lowering wouldn’t necessarily increase sales.
Many industry insiders believe that the property market crash
in Erdos would have come sooner or later.
Real estate commentator Gu Haibo said, if this is not stopped,
and the absurd “growth has slowed down" continues to violate the law,
next year this phenomena will spread outside Erdos!
Consequences will be more serious.
Duan Shaoyi thinks Erdos itself does not need so many houses.
And that this does not come from a real market need,
but from speculations, thus the prices’ collapse is inevitable.
Duan Shaoyi: “I think this is a rational regression,
that is, the value of real estate is not worth so much money.
House bubble is a serious thing,
it is better to burst out earlier!
Its development is irrational, and will cause a lot of wastage,
leaving those areas without funds and resources."
Prof. Xie Tian at the University of South Carolina also sees
the fall of Erdos house prices by 70% as something normal.
Prof. Xie: “Erdos, the ghost town, has been empty for quite
some time. So it is logical that it begans from there.
The next step we should pay more attention to
is the other ghost towns.
For example, some overly-built residential areas
in Zhengzhou and other such places.
This is not an isolated case, but the beginning of a storm.
The bigger storm is quite likely on its way."
In addition, Prof. Xie pointed out that China’s real estate
is not worth the investment.
This is because of the Chinese Communist Party’ policy,
where the public can only purchase the right to use properties.
One is actually paying to only rent it, the price for which
is much higher than in the US and other developed countries.
Unlike other countries, where buyers have ownership rights
over the property, in China one can only have rental rights.
NTD reporters Lin Li, Li Mingfei and Xiao Yu
