【新唐人2011年11月9日讯】在楼市调控政策影响下，北京和深圳相继出现了地产中介关店潮，并从中小型中介蔓延到大型中介公司，显示大陆楼市的寒冬正在到来。分析人士认为，目前出现的降价潮、关店潮意味着大陆楼市泡沫破灭已在眼前，而这些问题的根源，还是在于中国畸形的房地产政策。
楼市冷暖，中介先知。自从今年2月份“限购令”实施细则出台之后，中介公司就受到巨大冲击。
目前，深圳二手房的月成交量仅有2000套，与去年同期相比下降了8成。作为行业龙头的中原地产，在深圳楼市业务大幅缩水的情况下，不得不做出关店的决定。
11月7号，中原地产华南区总经理李耀智接受《东方早报》采访时透露，深圳中原地产今年将有60个门店暂停营业，这60间店每个月的亏损都达10几万元。
在中原地产之前，深圳当地就有多家大的地产中介纷纷关闭店面。
《财新网》报导，10月份，深圳世华地产关闭深圳宝安、龙岗、布吉、龙华等片区近100家店铺﹔中联地产也将关闭 30到60家门店。9月份，港置地产也关闭了部分门店。
深圳的大规模关店潮，在2008年国际金融危机重创深圳房地产业时也出现过。这一次，不少地产中介从内心感到恐惧，预感这次的“关店潮”将比2008年还要严重。
北京的地产中介同样也出现关店潮。北京某大型中介公司的负责人对《新京报》表示，今年前三季度，全行业基本处于亏损状态。一开始有50家中小中介关店，紧接着，大中介也支撑不下去了。据他的保守估计，全行业今年将有3000家门店关闭，大约5万名经纪人失业。
大陆自由撰稿人朱欣欣认为，由于中共政府在房地产业无度的资金投入，中介公司才随之大量涌现，现在打压楼市，出现关店潮也就不奇怪了。
大陆自由撰稿人朱欣欣：“从一开始中介公司也是依附在房地产商的基础上的，这些年来说整个就不是很正常的。房地产业的发展，成为一个所谓的经济支柱产业这个很不正常，房地产不是作为一种老百姓的居住需求，而成为一种投机的行业，它是一种畸形的泡沫式发展。所以说中介的倒闭从根本上来讲，也是前几年畸形发展的结果。”
中国出现的楼市降价潮、销售量低迷、中介关门潮的现象，是否意味着中国楼市的拐点和崩盘已经到来了呢？
《中国事务》主编伍凡观察，今年9月份，中国70个主要城市当中，有46个城市的房价停止上涨，有的开始下滑。而在1月份，出现这种状况的城市只有10个，也就是说在8个月间增加了4倍。
《中国事务》主编伍凡：“中国房地产泡沫终于开始破裂，总算到了这一点，它的过程中间正在发生各种各样的事情，尤其发生社会冲突，这个事情不会完，因为这个泡沫破裂，那么庞大，有个过程，这过程会造成人们巨大的痛苦，引起社会和经济剧烈的改变，这种改变让人们接受不了的时候就会跟共产党对抗。”
近日，美国约翰霍普金斯大学金融学与房地产学兼职教授陈剑接受了第一财经日报《财商》的专访。他认为，中国房市的拐点已经到来，房地产泡沫开始破灭。
陈剑还指出，最可怕的是，当局对此毫无准备，应对无方，使得局部的危机将变成全局的危机。
新唐人记者陈汉、李静、萧宇采访报导。
The Waning of China’s Real Estate Industry
Due to changes in legislation, the real estate market in Beijing
and Shenzhen has recently experienced a tidal wave of agency closures.
The trend began with small to mid-size agencies
then spread to larger realties, indicating that the ‘winter’ of China’s real estate market is approaching.
Analysts say that the recent wave of price cuts and agency closures
implies that a real estate market bubble is about to burst.
Analysts say the root cause of these problems lies in China’s
warped real estate policies.
Those in the know were able to predict
the boom and bust cycle of China’s real estate market.
With the recent passage of legislation, limits are expected to
be placed on home purchases in past February,
As a result, China’s larger realties will experience a big hit.
In Shenzhen, the monthly turnover of existing homes
came in at only 2,000, down 80% on a year-on-year basis.
Centaline Group, a leading property agency, had to
shut down many of its branch offices due to the dramatic drop in business.
On November 7, Li Yaozhi, general manager of
the Centaline Group in the southeast district of China,
revealed to Shanghai-based Oriental Morning Post,
that 60 agencies will be temporarily closed this year,
with each realty losing over RMB 100,000 [US$15,755],
per month, in revenue.
Prior to the Centaline Group announcement, several local
large realties in Shenzhen had closed their doors.
According to Caixin.cn reports, in October,
Shenzhen Shihua Investment Consultant shut down nearly 100 local agencies.
Zhonglian Real Estate shut down 30-60 agencies.
HKP Property Agency also closed some agencies in September.
In 2008, the agency-closing tidal wave had already begun
in Shenzhen, when the global financial crisis first began.
Many real estate agencies are afraid that
the current agency-closing tidal wave will be worse than the previous one.
Beijing’s real estate agencies are facing the same fate.
A large real estate agency director told Beijing News that
in the first three quarters of this year, the entire industry has recorded a loss.
At first, 50 small agencies began shutting their doors,
followed by larger real estate companies.
He believes, conservatively speaking, that 3,000 agencies
in the industry are expected to close their doors this year, with some 50,000 brokers being laid off.
Free-lancer writer, Zhu Xinxin, explained that since
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
pumped in excessive capital into the real estate industry,
many large realties sprang up.
Now, with officials suppressing the real estate market,
it is not surprising that we’re seeing a lot of agency closures.
Zhu Xinxin, a free-lance writer: “At the beginning,
these contractors developed their business relay on those real estate companies.
Thus, over the years,
the entire industry has become warped.
Real estate development has become a pillar industry,
but an ‘economy’ like this is abnormal.
Instead of trying to meet the public’s need for housing,
real estate has became a very speculative industry, warping into the next real estate bubble.
So in essence, the fact that intermediaries are closing down
is the result of abnormal developments during the previous years."
At present, China’s real estate market is experiencing
a tidal wave of price cuts, sales slumps, and intermediaries closures.
Does it mean that China’s real estate industry
has reached a turning point and is about to collapse?
According to Wu Fan, editor-in-chief of China Affairs,
this September, in 70 major cities across China,
46 cities real estate prices stopped rising
and in some cities, prices have already begun to fall.
In contrast, this January,
ten cities quadrupled the price of housing within eight months.
Wu Fan, editor-in-chief of China Affairs:
“China’s real estate bubble began to burst at last.
Arriving at this point, various things have begun to happen
and will continue to happen, especially social unrest.
Because when a bubble bursts, it is part of a larger process.
And this process will inevitably cause people great pain
along with severe social and economic changes.
When Chinese people can no longer accept such changes,
they will stand up and fight against the CCP.”
Recently, Chen Jian, an adjunct professor in finance and
real estate at Johns Hopkins University,
said to China’s First Financial Daily that
he believed the turning point of China’s housing market has arrived,
and the real estate bubble has begun to burst.
Chen Jian pointed out that the scariest thing is
that the CCP authorities are not prepared at all,
thus turning a small crisis into a huge crisis.
NTD reporters Chen Han, Li Jing and Xiao Yu
