【新唐人2011年9月15日讯】中共上周公布了国家统计局关于去年GDP的初步核实公告，内容说：2010年国内生产总值现价总量，比初步核算数增加3,219亿元，按不变价格计算的增长速度为10.4%。在欧美经济普遍陷入低靡的情况下，似乎中国的经济一枝独秀，不过有多位专家学者提出质疑，认为单靠GDP和经济发展无法量度一个国家是否已经达到盛世。
《法国国际广播电台》9月12号发表《学者指中国GDP只及1949年 难言盛世》的文章，引用经济学家胡星斗的数据说，在康乾时期，中国的GDP占世界的32%；到鸦片战争时期，中国的GDP至少占世界的20%；到清朝末年，比率降到11%；到1949年时，比率再跌到6%；文革时达到谷底的2%，现时的GDP只恢复占世界的5%、6%，所以即使从GDP看，也并非取得很大成就。
虽然有学者对胡星斗的数据提出不同见解，但他提出，不应该单以GDP和经济来衡量中国是否达到盛世，则受到普遍的赞同。
美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院谢田教授指出，GDP的概念是美国政府商业部设计的，他们在设计当初就警告说，GDP的数字不应该做为一个国家经济健康度量，因为它没有包括很多其他重要因素。
谢田教授：“比方说你国防开支，自然资源，人口数量啊，其实都不是强国的标志。那么它们都有弱点和局限。中共的统治集团用GDP的数字，你说是愚弄民众也好，做戏也好，用来展示它的经济。实际上在中国这个（GDP）作用已经被夸大了。”
《新唐人》特约评论专家杰森表示，中国过去30年的GDP增长，是以其他因素恶化为代价的。
杰森：“中国GDP呢，在过去30年是在持续的发展，但是这个发展的结果呢，是社会严重的贫富两极分化，是整个社会大的生存环境的持续恶化，包括自然环境和社会道德人伦的持续恶化。”
目前美国面临就业危机，欧巴马总统12号刚刚公布4,470亿美元就业方案，试图帮助提振美国经济；而欧元区也深陷债务危机，13号，巴西财政部长曼泰尼亚（Guido Mantegna）表示，金砖国家将讨论援助欧盟国家的可能性。作为金砖四国之一的中国，因此受到部分欧美学者的期待。
杰森分析，中国社会内部，其实并不像欧美国家表面上看到的那样乐观。由于制度问题，中国社会发展的受益者是少数有权阶层，普通大众的生活并没有反映出如GDP速度那样的增长。
杰森：“一个典型的例子就是，最近物价稍微涨了一下，很多老百姓就已经开始吃不上肉了，甚至稍微蔬菜涨一涨，连蔬菜都成问题了。所以就是说呢，单纯从GDP来看，它只是能让国际上一些对中国不了解的人觉得中国兴旺发达。但是你要走入中国社会你会发现，这是一个畸形发展的社会。”
杰森指出，目前中国的GDP仍然呈现增长，主要有两个原因。一是中共控制国家一切；二是依靠镇压，严格保持中国拥有一个赤贫阶层，这样相对在国际上保持廉价劳动力的优势，但这两点既制约了中国经济的发展，又积累了社会的不公，使得中国社会如同坐在火山口一般。
在此之前，英国《金融时报》的文章提出：“看一个国家是否是盛世，只要看那个国家所害怕的敌人或对手的特征。”
谢田教授：“因为一个真正强大的国家呢，它不会害怕很弱小的威胁。《金融时报》这篇文章他说，你看共产党的军队它不打自招，特务在攻击海外法轮功的网站，它害怕一群手无寸铁，打不还手的人群，而这个人群在任何国家，任何社会都不会构成威胁力量。”
而《法广》的报导说，法学家高全喜认为，盛世应该有一个文明的指标，应以社会的道德精神状况作为衡量的关键。而宪政学者张博树指出，按建设一个民主社会的观点，盛世应是指这个国家经济有发展、公民权利有保障、公民生活健康，简单而言，就是国泰民安。
新唐人记者梁欣、尚燕、柏妮采访报导。
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Chinese GDP true or false
The CCP released a preliminary verification announcement
last week on last year’s GDP, it indicates: 2010 GDP has
increased by 321.9 billion Yuan compared to initial counting.
This is based on constant price calculation; the growth rate is
10.4%. The Chinese economy seems to be thriving while the
European and American economies are experiencing a
financial slowdown. However, many experts believe that
GDP and economic growth alone cannot measure whether a
country is achieving prosperity.
Radio France International published an article “Experts
Point out China’s GDP and 1949 cannot be called the
Golden Age" citing economist Hu Xingdou’s data, in Kangxi
period, China’s GDP accounted for 32% of that of the world’s.
During the opium war period, China’s GDP accounted for at
least 20%, approaching the end of the Qing Dynasty, it
dropped to 11%. When the People’s Republic of China was
established in 1949, it dropped to only 6%. It reached the
bottom during the Cultural Revolution to a mere 2%. The
current GDP has only risen to 5~6%, therefore, looking at the
GDP, the CCP has not accomplished much.
Though there are researchers with different opinions to Hu
Xingdou’s data, many agreed with his opinion that the GDP
and economy alone cannot measure whether China is in a
golden age. University of South Carolina Aiken School of
Business Professor Xie Tian pointed out that, GDP is a
concept designed by the US Department of Commerce.
While designing it, they warned that the GDP numbers are
not a healthy measure of a nation’s economy, because it left
out many other important factors.
Professor Xie Tian: for example, your defense spending,
natural resource, population, they do not represent a sign of
power. They all have weakness and limitation. The GDP
numbers used by the ruling party (CCP), you can call it
fooling the public, or putting on a show, using it to show of
its economy. Actually, the effect of China’s GDP is already
exaggerated.
NTDTV special commentator Jason said, China’s GDP growth
in the past 30 years is at the cost of other factors deteriorating.
Jason: China’s GDP, increased for the past 30 years,
however this development caused the increasing gap
between the rich and poor. It caused a worsening of living
conditions, including the environment and people’s moral
standards.
America is facing an employment crisis. On the 12th,
President Obama announced a $447 billion jobs plan, as an
effort to boost the American economy. The Euro zone is also
facing a debt crisis. On the 13th, Brazil Finance Minister
Guido Mantegna said, the BRIC countries will discuss the
possibility of EU aid. As one of the 4 BRIC countries, China
has expectations from some European and American
researchers.
Jason analyzed, inside China, it does not look as optimistic
as it appears to the outside world. Due to policy, the social
development in China only benefits the class of people in
power. Rapid GDP growth doesn’t reflect the same growth in
the public’s quality of life.
Jason: a typical example, the slight increase in inflation
resulted in many people unable to purchase meat. Now,
even vegetables have become too expansive to eat. Thus,
GDP numbers provide an image of a rapid growing China
to people who really don’t know what’s going on in China.
But once you walk into China you will realize it is an
unbalanced society.
Jason points out, there are 2 reasons as to why China’s GDP
is increasing. Firstly the CCP controls everything
that’s going on in the country; secondly it keeps a poverty
class by force, to maintain the competitive advantage of
having cheap labor. However, it not only restricts China’s
economic growth, it also accumulates unfairness in society,
as if sitting on top of a volcano.
The Financial Times writes in an article: to determine
whether a country is prospering, you only need to look at the
characteristics of its enemy that the country is afraid of.
Professor Xie Tian: “a truly powerful country does not need to fear
the threat from the weak group.
The Financial Times said in its article, simply look at the CCP’s army,
they deploy spies to attack the Falun Gong websites abroad.
it means they are even afraid of a group of unarmed peaceful people.
This group of people poses no threat to the powers in any country or society."
The RFI reported, Jurist Gao Quanxi believes, prosperity
accounts for civilization, it should measures society’s moral level and
spiritual conditions. Constitutional scholar
Zhang Boshu pointed out, to built a democratic society,
a flourishing economy should develop security, civil rights and health.
Put it simple is that the peace and prosperity of the country.
NTDTV Liang Xin, Shang Yan and Bo Ni.
