【新唐人2011年8月22日讯】“厦门远华走私大案”主犯赖昌星上个月由加拿大被引渡回国，案情涉及众多中共高层政要，案件将被秘密审理，当局已为赖指定辩护律师，并下令国内媒体不得擅自追踪报导。海外专家分析，胡锦涛是否会引爆赖昌星案，要看十八大权位斗争团派能否压倒江系人马。
8月21号，香港《苹果日报》援引来自北京的消息报导，赖昌星将被以“走私普通货物罪”起诉，很快异地开审，而当局实质上视此案为敏感的政治案件。据了解，赖目前关在北京郊区秦城监狱。
原香港《文汇报》驻东北办事处主任姜维平相信，赖昌星肯定不会被判死刑，最多是终身监禁，两年后改为有期，再不断减刑，预料最终囚禁8到10年。既便判他终身监禁，也会在狱中获得特别优待，因为此案知名度太高，中共要拿它作样板。
盛雪《远华案黑幕》作者：“中国的整个司法领域应该说完全是一个黑洞，那么这个案件的具体审理过程当中，有一些直接经手的官员如果继续借用这个案子，在政治上打击异己的话，这种情况就比较难以预测。”
《远华案黑幕》一书作者盛雪认为，中共今天集体面对严峻的执政困境，她不太相信赖昌星案会带动新一轮的政局动荡。
也有许多分析认为，中共权力斗争历来腥风血雨，胡锦涛在任期结束前急于引渡赖昌星必有用意。
文昭时事评论员：“要把他引渡回国，实际上中共是作了一些原则性的让步的，包括加拿大政府是可以探监、可以旁听整个审理的过程。如果说胡锦涛把赖昌星引渡回去，没有一些特殊的用途的话，显然这些让步似乎是成本太高了。因为他所作的这些让步，按照以往的说法，恰恰是所谓‘干涉中国内政’、‘干涉中国的司法主权’的问题。”
赖昌星是在江泽民死讯传出后被遣返回国。外界指出，如果江泽民的影响力还在，赖昌星不可能被成功遣返。
江泽民在“六四事件”中被邓小平等大老看中，当上总书记。1992年初，邓小平南巡，几乎公开指责江泽民反对改革，并想撤换他。
最新一期香港《动向》杂志披露，江泽民这时听到消息，惊恐之余立刻命贾庆林委托妻子林幼芳，向她马来西亚娘家借3亿元，打造镶满钻石的金马，送给左派大老陈云祝寿。后来，陈云明确反对邓小平撤换江泽民。
北京当时流传“民儿哥花三亿买了个总书记”之说。而在香港出面订购钻石金马的正是赖昌星，3亿元欠款由赖昌星在福建大规模走私抵还，走私货源一大部分来自林幼芳的林氏家族公司。
2000年1月，“远华案”清查还没有阶段性结果，当时的福建省长习近平就发布消息说：境外有媒体报导原福建省委书记贾庆林的夫人林幼芳涉案，“纯属无中生有！”
《动向》杂志指出，江泽民认为习近平手腕圆滑，可以保护党内不同派系，因而暗中用力使习近平在02年以后迅速上升，以致于在胡温对陈良宇下手时，江泽民提的唯一条件是“让习近平去上海”。
金钟香港《开放》杂志主编：“对于江泽民、贾庆林、罗干这些有关的人、跟赖昌星有关系的，牵连这么广泛，都有利害关系，都有金钱来往的，我相信他也会交代，至少可以交代现在很多人们都不知道的问题，都会在中共的档案里面保存下来，当然必要的时候他可以利用这个档案，来进行他们内部的斗争。”
美国哥伦比亚大学政治学博士李天笑表示，胡锦涛王牌在手，但引而不发，用以招安纳降，发出安抚、稳住和分化江系的信号。这一招对于涉案的三个现任常委贾庆林、习近平、贺国强和原江的大秘书贾廷安，具有强大震慑作用。
旅居加拿大的姜维平指出，中共明年召开十八大，中南海高层派系斗争如火如荼，哪一派都不想因赖昌星案牵扯自身。他预料“赖昌星案”的处理必经中共最高层，结果也要依党内权位角力而定。
新唐人记者梁欣、李元翰、萧宇采访报导。
Awaiting Lai’s Revelations
In July 2011, Lai Changxing, the prime culprit
in the “Yuan Hua Smuggling Case,”
was extradited to China by the Canadian authorities.
As this case involves many senior politicians
of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP),
it will be a secret trial.
Chinese authorities have already assigned a defense lawyer
for him and ordered media not to report without permission.
Overseas experts believe that whether Hu Jingtao sets off
Lai’s case or not, depends entirely on whether Hu’s faction
could overwhelm Jiang Zemin’s in the 18th National
Congress of the Communist Party of China (NCCPC).
On August 21, Hong Kong’s Apple Daily cited news from
Beijing that Lai would be charged with “smuggling goods,”
and will appear in court soon.
The authorities now treat it as a sensitive political case.
It is said that Lai is currently in Qing Chen Prison
in the suburb of Beijing.
Jiang Weiping, ex-chairman of Wen Wei Po in Northeastern
China, believes that Lai should not be sentenced to death.
He expects the verdict to be a life sentence, and maybe two
years later it will be changed to fixed-term imprisonment.
The term might be reduced continuously.
The final term is expected to be eight to ten years.
Even if Lai gets a life sentence, he will be treated well
in prison. This is a famous case, and CCP will use it as a model.
Sheng Xue (author of Unveiling the Yuan Hua Case):
“The whole Chinese judicial realm is totally a black hole.
It’s hard to predict whether an official handling the case
will use it to crack down on political dissidents.”
Sheng Xue said that the whole CCP today
is facing a severe governance dilemma,
so she did not believe that Lai’s case would spur
a new round of political instability.
Many people believe that the power struggle
within the CCP is always bloody.
Lai’s extradition back to China must have some special
meaning, as it was conducted before the end of Hu’s term.
Wen Zhao (Current affairs commentator): “In order to have
him extradited, CCP must give in on some principle parts.
Such as allowing the Canadian government to visit him
and sit in during the whole trial.
The cost of extraditing him is too high for the CCP
to be no special meaning or message behind it.
These concessions should be called
“Interfering in China’s internal affairs”
and “Interfering in China’s judicial sovereignty,”
according to the CCP’s old statements.”
Lai was extradited after Jiang’s death. If Jiang still has
influence, Lai wouldn’t have been sent back successfully.
Deng Xiaoping liked Jiang’s actions in the Tiananmen Square
Massacre, and made him the CCP’s Secretary General.
At the beginning of 1992, when Deng visited southern China,
he almost accused Jiang in public of being against revolution
and wanted to replace Jiang.
Hong Kong’s Trend Magazine revealed that when Jiang
heard of this news, he was so scared
that he ordered Jia Qinglin to borrow RMB300 million
from Jia’s wife – Lin Youfang’s family in Malaysia.
He made a diamond-studded golden horse and gave it to
Chen Yun – a big influence among leftists, as a birthday gift.
Later on, and as a result, Chen did not agree to replace Jiang.
At that time, the saying that “Jiang bought the title
of Secretary General for 300 million yuan” spread in Beijing.
The one who ordered the golden horse in Hong Kong was Lai.
The RMB300 million loans were paid by Lai
from his vast smuggling business in Fujian province.
Most of the smuggled goods were from Jia’s wife’s
family enterprise.
In January 2000, before the Yuan Hua Case had any periodic
achievement, Xi Jingping, governor of Fujian province,
spread the message that it was purely fictitious
that Jia’s wife was involved in this case.
Trend Magazine pointed out that Jiang thought Xi
is tactful and can protect different factions inside the party.
Thus he helped promote Xi secretly in 2002.
When Hu was about to get rid of Chen Liangyu,
Jiang’s only requirement was to “move Xi to Shanghai.”
Jin Zhong (Chief editor, Open magazine): “Jiang Zemin, Jia
Qinglin, Luo Gan, etc, all those concerned, are related to Lai.
This case involves so many people.
They all have interest relationships, they all have money deals.
I believe Lai will confess, at least something that people
don’t know now. All will be recorded by CCP internally.
Of course, when it is necessary, it can be used
for their internal power struggle.”
Li Tianxiao, Ph.D. in Political Science at Columbia University
said Hu is keeping the trump card to make rivals surrender.
Hu can give an ‘OK’ to appease, stabilize or
split Jiang’s faction.
A frightening method, especially to three current committees
Jia Qinglin, Xi Jingping, He Guoqiang,
and also to Jiang Zemin’s ex-secretary, Jia Ting’an.
Jiang Weiping pointed out that there would be 18th NCCPC
next year. Different factions in Zhongnanhai are now fighting.
No one wants to get involved in Lai’s case. Jiang Weiping
predicts that Lai’s case will be handled by CCP’s top people,
and the outcome will also be decided by the result
of CCP’s internal power struggle.
NTD reporters Liang Xin, Li Yuanhan and Xiao Yu
