【新唐人2011年7月19日讯】厦门“远华走私案”的头号疑犯赖昌星，逃亡加拿大10多年，在江泽民传出病危后，他被遣返中国的可能性骤增。香港媒体评论，赖昌星是胡锦涛的绝妙棋子。
《星岛日报》18号说，赖昌星上周已经由预审中心，移送到加拿大卑诗省的菲沙地区惩教中心（Fraser Regional Correction Centre）羁押。21号则是有关执行遣返令的聆讯，如果落实遣返，一般相信最快会在25号执行。
赖昌星的走私和腐败案，不仅涉及中共军方高层人物，还涉及江泽民班底人马。
政治评论家林保华：“因为到了这种高层的话，要不要整的时候都是和上面的派系斗争有关系。当时主要是朱镕基，因为朱镕基管经济的嘛，他认为这个走私对经济（有影响），当时作为一 个大案来处理。朱镕基要整，那麽整的这个对像，贾庆林是江泽民的人，所以江泽民当然要保护啊。”
而《苹果日报》18号发表文章《赖昌星是胡锦涛绝妙棋子》，文中说：“北京盛传胡锦涛在四月得知老江病危后，马上命令外交、司法等部门向加拿大施压，在中方承诺不判死刑的条件下马上遣返赖昌星。”
林保华认为，赖昌星被引渡的可能性比较大。
林保华：“江泽民的政敌像胡锦涛共青团这一派，要成功的把赖昌星引渡回去他要做到两点。一点是会给赖昌星优惠的条件，比如说回来不判你死刑，让你讲更多的话。现在据说赖昌星有一点心动了。第二个就是说，加拿大政府从人权考虑，如果赖昌星讲很多话可能给他优待，加拿大把他放回去也不必背上人权的包袱。”
《苹果日报》分析，赖昌星命运涉及三位政治局常委，就是政协主席贾庆林、中央纪律检查委员会书记贺国强、和国家副主席兼“王储”习近平。江泽民病重已让“上海帮”失去奥援，如果赖昌星被遣送回国，抖出当年的秘密，咬出相关的当事人，团派定然在十八大人事布局中占上风。
不过也有评论说，赖昌星被遣返可能引曾庆红出手，或者政治局常委中的中纪委书记贺国强、中央政法委书记周永康的干预。林保华表示，江系人马的阻挡程度和他的涉案程度有关。
林保华：“如果是江泽民涉案的话，因为江泽民现在已经很老了，快死了，其他人不涉案的话，其他人就不一定会去阻挡这个事情。但如果其他人也涉案的话，如果贺国强和习近平也涉案的话，那当然他们就会有很多动作来阻挡。”
《苹果日报》的文章说，胡锦涛这一招是要招安江系人马，为第六代领导铺路。不过，不管结果如何，中共的权斗风暴势必进一步影响中国 内政外交。
新唐人记者常春、尚燕、郭敬采访报导。
The prime suspect of the Xiamen Yuanhua Smuggling Case,
Lai Changxing, who fled to Canada over a decade ago,
will more likely be repatriated to China after news of
Jiang’s illness.
Hong Kong’s media suggest that
Lai is a special political leverage for Hu Jingtao.
Sing Tao Daily said on July 18 that
Lai Changxing had been transferred from a pre-trial center to
Fraser Regional Correction Centre in Canada last week.
The hearing of deportation case will be held on July 21.
If confirmed, execution will come before 25.
Upon learning that the Governor of Calif. was coming to visit,
Lai’s smuggling and corruption case not only involves
the top military officials in Chinese Communist Party (CCP),
but also Jiang Zemin’s family members and cronies.
Lin Baohua (Political Critic): For officials as high as them,
it’s inevitable that they have connections with top CCP camps.
Since the times of the CCP’s ex-premier Zhu Rongji,
who was mainly in charge of the economic policies,
also thought that smuggling might affect the economy.
Therefore, he treated smuggling cases seriously.
The main target for Zhu Rongji’s move is Jia Qinlin,
one of Jiang’s cronies and was under Jiang’s protection.
Apple Daily published on July 18 an article titled,
“Lai Changxing: A political leverage for Hu Jingtao”, saying
“When informed of Jiang’s illness in April, Foreign Ministry
and Justice departments immediately pressured Canada,
asking for Lai’s repatriation,
on the conditions it was death-penalty-free.
Upon learning that the Governor of Calif. was coming to visit,
Lin Baohua suggests they are more likely to extradite Lai.
Lin Baohua: “For Jiang Zemin’s political rival, such as Hu’s
Communist Youth League, to successfully extradite Lai
they have to be sure of two things: first, a favorable condition,
such as death-penalty-free or freedom of speech;
secondly, to Canada, if Lai benefits from freedom of speech,
it also releases Canada from the burden of human rights.”
Apple Daily suggests that Lai connects with three
CCP Politburo members: the President of CPPCC Jia Qinglin,
Secretary of Central Commission for Discipline Inspection
He Guoqiang, and the CCP Vice President Xi Jinping.
Jiang’s illness weakens his camp’s power;
if Lai is sent back to China and reveals past secrets,
Hu Jintao’s clan will surely prevail
in the coming 18th CCP conference.
Some critiques also suggest that the return of Lai will result
in Zeng Qinhong’s move,
or interference from CCP Politburo secretary He Guoqiang
and CCP Politics and Law Committee secretary Zhou Yongkang.
Lin Baohua assumes that Jiang’s clan relies on
its extent of involvement to interfere.
Lin Baohua: “If Jiang Zemin was not involved in the case,
since he is too old to live any longer, his clans may not interfere,
provided they were not involved at all.
But if they were, along with He Guoqiang and Xi Jinping,
then they’ll employ more moves to interfere with this case.”
Apple Daily suggests that Hu Jintao’s move aims to recruit
in preparation for the 6th generation of CCP leaders.
CCP’s internal power conflicts will affect China’s politics
and diplomacy, regardless of the result of the transition.
NTD reporters Chang Chun,Shang Yan and Guo Jing
