【新唐人2011年7月6日讯】大陆央行7月4号发布第2季度调查报告，68.2%的居民认为物价“高，难以接受”，比上一季度增加1.3个百分点。尤其是猪肉价格急速上涨，引发民众强烈不满。央行官员指出，政府财政赤字是通货膨胀的深层次原因。而海内外经济学家则担忧中国经济崩盘。
央行的这份报告，是对全中国50个城市2万储户进行的问卷调查，对当前房价水平，74.3%的居民认为“过高，难以接受”。
而国家统计局4号公布的“50个城市主要食品平均价格变动情况”，6月下旬，猪肉价格与5月下旬相比，涨幅达到15%；猪肉后腿价格达到每公斤30.58元，五花肉每公斤29.72元。除土豆外，所有蔬菜价格都上涨，大白菜比6月中旬上涨17%。
不过，中国国际经济交流中心研究员王军指出，实际数字比政府公布的要高得多。
王军（中国国际经济交流中心研究员）：“我对他所有的数字我就不信，他们公布的数字确实跟我理解的差得太远了，我是生活在这，跟他公布的我有时候自己就觉得不对头。而且什么今年下半年物价就可以下来。”
7月5号，《新浪》微博发起“肉价上涨的影响”投票活动，53%的网友表示会少吃猪肉，减少开销；19%的人表示会变成“食草动物”。
而中共却花费巨资大搞党庆，人民网《强国论坛》的网友讽刺说：“共产主义会免费分房子么？能吃得上猪肉么？”、“唱红歌就不用吃猪肉了！”、“猪肉涨价撕碎国人梦想。”等
4号，《理财周刊》发表经济学家郎咸平的文章指出，资料显示，今年（2011年）第一季度出栏的生猪是2.3亿头，比去年增长2.5%，不存在供应不足的情况，成本饲料上涨也很有限。
郎咸平指出，猪肉价格上涨的真正原因，是增发货币所导致的通货膨胀造成的，这个时候真正应该担忧的是地方政府的债务危机。
专家普遍预计，6月消费物价指数CPI涨幅将超过6%。《新华社》下属的《经济参考报》指出，央行4号的例会声明，可能即将会有加息的动作。
近日，中国《财经》杂志发表“瑞信证券”中国研究主管陈昌华的研究文章说，截至今年（2011年）3月底，中国债务占GDP的比例，实际已经高达166%，这对中国实体经济和银行构成威胁。
审计署估算，地方政府债务已经达到10.7万亿人民币。而国际评级机构“穆迪”5号表示，大陆审计署低估了3.5万亿人民币，令银行业可能遭遇更大损失，进而威胁到信用评级。
4号，全国政协常委兼经济委员会副主任吴敬琏发表文章指出，政府（中共政权）是经济增长方式难以转变的原因。政府（中共政权）仍然保持着计划经济条件下，那样过大的配置资源的权力，而且，政绩考核标准仍然以GDP的增长速度为主。政府（中共政权）干预微观经济活动，这是中国现在遇到的最大的危险。
北京天则经济研究所理事长茅于轼：“本来市场能够纠正自己的结构扭曲，但是中国的市场比较弱，而是国家在支配，现在就是国进民退，政府配置资源越来越多，就是市场在缩小，政府在扩大。”
财新《新世纪》杂志4号发表经济学家谢国忠的文章指出，通货膨胀是中国增长模式的结果。如果通胀得不到控制，将会导致社会动乱。
而《经济观察报》4号则报导，麻省理工学院商学院教授黄亚生表示，中国总体家庭消费只占GDP35%，而奢侈消费却成为世界第一、第二，他认为这是中国经济崩盘的预兆。
他指出，“转型”已经变成政府一句空洞的口号，但实际上很多是“反改革”的、是逆转。中国迫切需要一场“政治体制改革”，因为来之不易的经济成果正在受畸形制度和特权阶层的侵蚀。
新唐人记者周玉林、李元翰、肖颜采访报导。
68% Find Prices Too High
On July 4, People’s Bank of China (PBC) released
its Q2 survey report, indicating 68.2% of the people
think prices are higher than acceptable,
with 1.3% increase from the figure of Q1.
For example, pork price has increased sharply,
causing strong dissatisfaction among people.
PBC officials point out that the government deficit
is the root cause of the inflation.
Chinese and overseas economists are concerned
about the danger of Chinese economy collapse.
PBC’s report is based on a survey conducted
amongst its 20,000 customers in 50 Chinese cities.
Regarding housing prices, 74.3% of people think
the prices are too high to accept.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics released
on July 4 its “Average Price Changes
of Key Food Products in 50 Cities.”
In the 2nd half of June, pork price increased 15%
compared to that a month ago.
Price of pork ham is RMB30.58 per kilo.
Almost all of vegetable prices have increased too.
Cabbage increased 17% compared with mid-June.
China International Economic and Exchange Center
(CIEEC) researcher Wang Jun points out, however,
that the actual number is much higher.
Wang Jun (researcher, CIEEC): “I do not believe
in the data released by the government,
which is far from what I understand.
I live here and I feel what they published is wrong.
I don’t accept their say of price decrease in Q2.”
On July 5, a poll was set up on a sina.net blog,
asking about the impact of meat price hike.
53% of netizens said that they would eat less pork,
19% indicated they would become “vegetarians.”
Meanwhile, the Chinese Communist Party ( CCP )
spent lots of money to celebrate its anniversary.
Netizens asked on the people.com forum:
“Does communism allocate a free house?
Can it help one to afford pork?
Will revolutionary songs stop the need to eat pork!
The pork price hike tears up people’s dreams.”
On July 4, mag.e-moneyweekly.com published
the economist Lang Xianping’s article, indicating
that as per Q1 statistics, pigs count was 230,000,
or 2.5% increase over the last year. Thus price hike
is not because of oversupply, nor cost increase.
Lang Xianping thinks the real reason for price hike
of pork is the inflation caused by money printing.
The real concern is local governments’ debt crises.
Experts expect June’s price index to surpass 6%.
Economic Information Daily of the Xinhuan.net
pointed out that PBC’s announcement on July 4
might lead to interest rate increase.
Recently, China’s Caijin magazine published
an article by Chen Changhua, the Chief
of China Study of Credit Suisse Securities.
Chen points out that up to March 2011,
China’s debt to GDP ratio was as high as 166%,
a threat to China’s economy and banking system.
National Bureau of Audit estimated that
local governments’ debt is RMB10.7 trillion.
However, credit rating agency Moody’s indicated
on July 5 that there is another RMB3.5 trillion debt,,
which might cause more serious bank losses
and damage the Chinese banks’ credit ratings.
On July 4, National Committee of CPPCC’s
Standing Committee member and Deputy Director
of Economy Commission, Wu Jinglian published
an article, indicating that the CCP government
is the challenge of China’s economic transformation.
The government is still running planned economy,
and has too much control over resources.
Officials’ performance indicator is still GDP increase.
The government’s intervention to micro-economy
is one of the biggest challenges in China.
Mao Yushi (president of Tianze Economic Institute):
“The market should be self-correcting.
But the market in China is relatively weak,
and it is controlled by the government.
So the government is moving forward
by controlling more and more resources.
Therefore, the private sector is shrinking,
while the state-owned firms are expanding.”
On July 4, magazin.caing.com published an article
by economist Xie Guozhong. Xie states,
inflation is the result of China’s development model.
If not controlled, it will lead to social turmoil.
Economic Observer published on July 4 an article
by MIT Business School Prof. Huang Yasheng.
Huang shows that China’s family expense accounts
for only 35% of GDP, but China’s expense
on luxury products is the highest in the world.
He thinks this is a sign of economic collapse.
He pointed out that transformation is merely
an empty slogan. Many officials are against reform.
China needs a political reform, otherwise,
its economic achievements will continue to be damaged
by the deformed political system and the privileged.
NTD reporters Zhou Yulin, Li Yuanhan and Xiao Yan
