【新唐人2015年2月16日訊】國際諮詢機構麥肯錫全球研究院（McKinsey Global Institute），最近發佈了一份研究報告，指出中國的總債務水平，在2007年的金融危機之後翻了四倍，遠高於發展中國家的平均水平，甚至比很多發達國家還要高，引發投資者擔憂。中國專家指出，中國經濟比1980年代的日本經濟危機時更加糟糕。
諮詢機構麥肯錫全球研究院的調查報告顯示，中國2007年以來負債增加將近4倍，從當年的7.4萬億美元增加到了28.2萬億美元，相當於2014年GDP的282%。
報告指出：中國一半的貸款用於過熱的房地產市場，不受監管的影子銀行佔了近一半的新增貸款，而許多地方政府的債務又不可持續。這三方面都令人擔憂。
報告還指出，短短几年之內中國從負債最少的國家之一，變成負債較多的國家之一，比澳大利亞、美國和德國等發達國家還高出許多。
英國廣播公司《BBC》指出，中國的情況不符合發展中國家負債比發達國家少的常識，令人驚訝。
臺大經濟系教授張清溪：「我覺得還有一些東西，可能沒有算進來，因爲地方政府的債務是不是能夠真的表現出來，我是有點懷疑，因爲中國現在就是非常不透明，很難拿到它正確的資料，中央政府可能也不是很清楚，因爲很多實際在地方政府裡面的。」
中國社科院學部委員餘永定指出，大多數金融危機都是債務危機，一個國家整個債務對GDP之比非常重要，在中國最危險、最值得關注的是地方政府債務，因爲不知道其餘額到底是多少，餘永定對地方政府還債意願及還債能力表示懷疑。
按照麥肯錫的計算，在一半的房地產債務發生債務違約，價值損失80%的情況下，中國的政府債務必須提高到GDP的79%，才能挽救這場危機。
大陸經濟學家楊斌：「79%難度太大了，不光金融危機的問題，現在實體經濟都特別脆弱了，現在各種指標出來都沒有好的。」
大陸經濟學家楊斌指出，目前強調的推遲10年社保與債務有直接關係。
英國廣播公司《BBC》評論指出，這樣的一場金融危機仍然會給中國經濟帶來災難，中國會步上日本後塵，家庭和企業推遲消費，經濟停滯不前也將成爲常態。
張清溪：「日本的問題是因爲泡沫的問題造成銀行的問題，它（中國）的問題比日本要嚴重很多，尤其是地下金融，它的影子銀行實際上不透明的東西，地方債務也一樣是非常不透明，基本上中國經濟要崩潰的啦，我覺得它不只是像日本一樣停滯而已。」
上世紀80年代，在炒作之下，日本的地價迅速上漲，80年代後半期泡沫經濟形成，日本經濟呈現出高增長、「表面美麗」現象，1991年「泡沫經濟」破滅後，日本經濟陷入了長期停滯，並爆發了嚴重的金融危機，因而被稱之爲「失去的十年」。
楊斌：「GDP包括債務都可以跟人家比，人均收入就不能跟日本比，日本可以承受的中國可能承受不了，國內經濟構成非常脆弱，因爲貧富不均非常嚴重，就沒有中產階級用消費來拉動經濟發展，日本沒有崩潰，我們這面臨各種危機，政治構成經濟構成都特別脆弱。」
在大舉借貸導致2007年至08年全球信貸危機，所引發的全球經濟衰退以來，各國政府都誓言要縮減開支，降低債務。
不過，面臨經濟增長放緩的壓力，尤其是房地產增速回落和製造業產能過剩，中共當局並沒有遏制信貸發展。《中國經濟時報》今年1月份的報導稱，從去年11月開始，中國正在實施新一輪小型的刺激計劃。根據中國人民銀行的統計，截至去年年末，金融機構人民幣各項貸款當年新增近10萬億元。
據經濟學家觀察，這些新增的貸款還是進入了房地產。根據《新華社》的資料，中國平均每戶住房擁有率已經超過了100%。餘永定認為這是嚴重的資源錯配，這樣的發展會毀了中國。
採訪編輯/劉惠
McKinsey: China Quadrupled Debt Reveals A Troubling Picture
Influential consultancy, McKinsey Global Institute, recently
published a new study stating that China’s debt has quadrupled
since the financial crisis in 2007. That’s far above the average
for developing countries and higher than some developed
countries, which really makes investors worried.
Economists from China state that China’s economic situation
is a lot worse than that in Japan during its economic crisis.
According to the study , China’s debt has quadrupled since 2007,
rising to $28 trillion by mid-2014, from $7 trillion in 2007.
It’s equivalent to 282 percent of its GDP of 2014.
It stated that three developments are potentially worrisome:
half of all loans are linked, directly or indirectly,
to China’s overheated real-estate market;
unregulated shadow banking accounts for nearly half of new
lending; and the debt of many local governments is probably
unsustainable.
The reports says that China’s debt level is far above the average
for developing countries – higher than some advanced economies
including Australia, the United States, Germany and Canada.
According to the BBC, it is surprising to see China as a
developing country is even more indebted than the developed.
Zhang Qingxi, Economics Professor, National Taiwan University:
“I think China’s total debt hasn’t been completely calculated
because the debts of local governments aren’t published.
Because of the lack of transparency, it’s very challenging
to get accurate numbers. Even the central government
doesn’t clearly know the debt situation of local governments."
Yu Yongding, committee member, China Academy of Social Sciences,
pointed out that much of the financial crisis is essentially debt crisis.
The ratio of a country’s debt to its GPD is very important.
In China, the area that is most perilous and worth more attention
is local government debt. Not only is it hard to know the exact balance,
but its willingness and capability to pay off the debt is open to doubt.
Based on calculation from McKinsey, if half of the real estate
debt defaults, with 80% of non-recoverable loss,
China has to increase its debt level as much as 79% of its GDP
to save the crisis.
Yang Bin, economist from China:"It’s too challenging to be
indebted as much as 79% of GDP.
It’s not only about financial crisis,
but even entity economy is weak as well.
Now none of the economic indices look good."
Economist Yang Bin pointed out that China’s postponing
social security benefit payment time for another 10 years is
directly correlated to its current debt situation.
Zhang Qingxi: “Japan’s bubble problem caused its banking
problem.
Right now, China’s problem is more severe than Japan’s,
especially its underground finance and shadow banking
as well as local government debt. These are all not
transparent at all.
China’s economy is about to collapse
and it will be worse than Japan."
In the 1980s, Japan’s land price rose fast.
In the late 1980s, a bubble economy formed and
Japan’s economy showed fast growth, “superficially beautiful.
In 1991, Japan’s “bubble economy" fell apart and its economy
stagnated for a long time, which also triggered financial crisis.
That has been called “the lost 10 years".
Yang Bin: “Both China’s debt and GDP is comparable to Japan.
Nonetheless, China’s income per head is non-comparable to Japan.
China can’t sustain what Japan can.
Right now China’s economic structure is very weak.
Because of the severe income inequality,
consumption from the middle-class is not enough
to push economic development.
Even though Japan hasn’t collapsed, we are facing all kinds
of crisis.
Both political structure and economic structure are very weak."
Since the bursting of a global credit bubble resulted in
the worst financial crisis in 2007, all countries vowed to cut
spending and lower debt level.
Facing the pressure from economic slowdown,
especially the slowdown of real estate industry and manufacture,
China’s government hasn’t constrained its debt level.
Based on the observation of economists,
newly issued debts have flown into real estate industry.
Based on the statistics from “Xinhuan Agency",
each household owns more than one property already.
Yu Yongjia states that this phenomenon means a mis-allocation
of resources, which will ruin China’s economy.
Interview & Edit/Liu Hui
