【新唐人2014年08月12日訊】今年以來，大陸銀行二級資本債發行規模已經突破千億元，但幾家銀行又在近期再次發行高風險債務。業內認為，這表明大陸商業銀行，已經拉開新一輪補血大幕來滿足監管要求，以及防範經濟下行壓力資產質量惡化的風險，而其中房地產商資金斷裂、放棄房產拒絕還款是主要原因。
8月8號，中國銀行發行300億元10年期固定利率二級資本債券，這是工商銀行在4天前，發完600億二級資本債計劃中的200億後，又一大型國有銀行動作。
根據「中國貨幣網」信息統計，今年以來包括「興業」、「民生」、「招商」、「華夏」等在內的多家銀行，都已經發行二級資本債，從年初至今，二級資本債發行規模已經突破千億元。
二級資本債風險高於普通債券，一旦發行人陷入困境並需要現金，或是監管機構判定發行人無法存續，債券購買者將損失全部投資。
大陸銀行再次發行高風險債務。業內認為，這表明大陸商業銀行，已經拉開新一輪補血大幕，來滿足監管要求，以及防範經濟下行壓力資產質量惡化的風險。
旅美經濟評論家馬傑森：「中國前一段靠資本擴張催動GDP模式，使得銀行業資金鏈很緊，而且資本運用效率很低，銀行不得不不斷從社會上集資，把銀行的風險用債務的方式轉嫁到社會上，讓社會來承擔一部份。」
業界認為，房地產商資金斷裂、放棄房產拒絕還款，是銀行再次發行高風險債務的主要原因。
今年由於房地產持續下滑，各地房地產老闆跑路現象不斷湧現。大陸《21世紀經濟報導》日前報導，五、六月末，浙江杭州、江蘇無錫、福建寧德、江蘇新 沂等地，都有業主因個人按揭貸款逾期不能償還，而被銀行起訴的案例。這些案件中由於房產的現行總價低於貸款本息，業主大多聲稱「無力還款」。
而投資在中國房地產基金的外資，也因為受到損失而紛紛撤資。據美國《華爾街日報》報導，一批外國投資者，最近從一度估值高達10億美元的一個中國房地產基金撤資，並蒙受了巨額損失。
馬傑森：「這就是房地產在下走的時候，銀行所必須承擔的一個風險，這就是為甚麼銀行系統開始充足自己的資金，以防類似這樣的事情發生引發資金鏈更加緊的這樣一個情況。」
中國金融智庫研究院鞏勝利：「中國以前36年來，把房地產看成了拉動中國經濟的最大產業，佔接近中國GDP的30%左右，使中國經濟嚴重失衡。」
而中共印發了接近GDP兩倍的鈔票後，不僅引發了通貨膨脹，也沒能解決銀行資金不足問題。「工商銀行」除了計劃發行600億二級資本債券外，還將發行總額多達人民幣800億元的優先股。另外，「農業銀行」和「建設銀行」也在計劃發行二級資本債券。
另外，目前中國銀行業不良貸款也在迅速增長。大陸銀監會7月25號公布數據顯示，截至6月末，大陸商業銀行不良貸款餘額接近7000億元。這個數據已經超過2013年全年。
評論指出，大陸銀行業雖然在努力補充資本和加速處置不良貸款。不過，債務和銀行不良貸款率的雙雙攀升，已經對中國經濟構成雙重風險。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/鍾元
Real Estate Market Downslides, Forcing Chinese Banks to Massively Issue High-risk Bonds
This year, Chinese banks have issued over 100 billion
yuan ($16 billion) of Tier 2 bonds.
Recently, several of them have again issued bonds
carrying high risks.
Economists say, the move suggests Chinese commercial
banks are running a new round of “blood transfusion”
to meet regulatory requirements and reduce risks of
deteriorating asset quality due to economic slowdown.
The main cause of the problem is that the breakdown of
capital chain of real estate developers, many of whom had
refused to pay their debts by abandoning the houses
they constructed.
On August 8, Bank of China (BOC) announced that
it would issue 30 billion yuan ($4.87 billion) of 10-year
Tier 2 bonds with fixed interest rate.
This is another move by major state-owned banks following
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC),
which priced 20 billion yuan of Tier 2 bonds on Tuesday,
as part of its 60-billion yuan bond plan.
According to Chinamoney web, Industrial Bank,
China Minsheng Bank, China Merchants Bank, Hua Xia Bank
and many others have issued Tier 2 bonds in 2014.
Since the start of this year, Chinese banks have issued an
overall of over 100 billion yuan of Tier 2 bonds.
Tier 2 bonds carry higher risks than usual bonds.
Once issuers are trapped into cash shortage or regulators
recognize that issuers are not able to survive the duration
period, bond holders will lose all their investment.
Economists say, issuing high-risk bonds suggests
another round of “blood transfusion” moves
by Chinese commercial banks.
The purpose is to meet regulatory requirements and reduce
risks of deteriorating asset quality due to
economic slowdown.
Jason Ma, economic commentator:”The Chinese Communist
Party (CCP) had depended on the expansion of capital
to drive GDP growth.
This has cast great pressure on capital chain of banks,
along with a pretty low efficiency in capital use.
Therefore banks have to collect money from the whole
society by issuing bonds.
This partially transfers risks from banks to
the Chinese society.”
Economists comment that, Chinese banks are again issuing
high-risk bonds mostly because many real estate developers
had refused to pay their debts by abandoning
constructed houses, as the capital chain had broken down.
As China’s real estate market keeps sliding down, there have
been many reports of missing real estate entrepreneurs
after owning huge debts.
The 21st Century Business Herald reported that, in May
and June, there had been lawsuits filed by banks against
borrowers who failed to pay debts on time.
These cases were seen in Hangzhou, Wuxi, Ningde, Xinyi
and some other places.
As even properties’ total current price was lower than the due
amount to pay off, most property owners claimed that
“they were unable to pay loans and interests”.
Meanwhile, foreign capital involved in China’s real estate
market had also suffered loss and are retreating.
According to a Wall Street Journal report, “A group of
foreign investors suffered steep losses when it recently
exited a Chinese property fund once valued at $1 billion.”
Jason Ma:”As the real estate market declines, banks will
unavoidably take such risks on their shoulder.
This is why the CCP’s bank system starts to refill its fund
storage to guard against worse capital chain problems
resulting from similar incidents.”
Gong Shengli, researcher of China Finance Think Tank:”
In the past 36 years, the CCP has regarded the real estate
market as a leading driver of economic growth.
It contributes to about 30 percent of China’s GDP,
causing serious unbalance in China’s economy.”
The CCP had printed money amounting twice of annual GDP,
but still failed to solve the money shortage problem
at the cost of causing serious inflation.
ICBC now plans to issue 80 billion yuan ($12.9 billion)
of preferred shares, in addition to the plan of issuing
Tier 2 bond totaling 60 billion yuan.
The Agriculture Bank of China and China Construction Bank
are also making similar plans in issuing Tier 2 bonds.
China’s banking industry also sees a sharp increase in
the ratio of non-performing loans.
On July 25, China Banking Regulatory Commission
announced that by the end of June, Chinese commercial
banks have a balance of nearly 700 billion yuan
($114 billion) in bad loans.
The figure has exceeded that from the whole year of 2013.
Commentators say, Chinese banks are working hard to refill
capital pool and handle non-performing loans.
Despite that, China’s economy is still taking double risks
as both total debts and ratio of bad loans
are seeing sharp increase in magnitude.
Interview & Edit/LiuHui Post-Production/ZongYuan
