【新唐人2014年05月21日訊】那麼就在越南因為領土紛爭爆發排華暴力事件之後，中、美軍隊最高將領在美國會晤，華盛頓指責北京試圖通過武力改變現狀。而專家指出，越南和中國這兩個共產主義國家，在國內矛盾重重的背景之下，將矛頭對準彼此，只希望轉移民眾的視線。
中共官方《新華社》週日報導說，五艘中國船隻將開赴越南幫助撤退。交通部說，有一艘船已經從海南省出發。16名受傷嚴重的中國公民，週日被醫療包機運出越南。
美國「紐約城市大學」政治學教授夏明指出，越南跟中國在傳統上一直有仇視關係，因為越南跟中國原來是附屬國，一直尋求獨立。後來被法國殖民，越南又反法國，再後來美國捲入，越南又反美國。現在中國成為越南最大的貿易夥伴國家，越南無論是政治、經濟和文化生活，受到中國影響非常大。
美國紐約城市大學政治學教授夏明：「所以越南老百姓擔憂跟中國綁的這麼緊，而且兩個都是共產黨國家，可能給越南帶來亡國的危險。所以越南民族主義情緒一直是引發衝突的長久的根源。而這個民族主義情緒，早在72年就有西沙的海戰，在79年又有中越邊境戰爭。這些都使得這兩個國家埋下仇恨的種子。現在中國經濟不斷滲透，中國商人和物品不斷湧向越南，給越南人造成很大的衝擊和壓力。」
此外，最近越南經濟因為貨幣金融危機，越南老百姓失業率高，自身社會問題多，大量的中國投資者、遊客不斷產生摩擦點。現在，涉及到中國的石油勘探設備進入西沙群島地區，引發越南人更大不安。
夏明也指出，越南人的不安，背後恐怕還跟日本和美國對越南的支持，以及越南國內的權力衝突有關。這涉及越南在中國、美國和俄國三角之間，希望尋找一個平衡。
夏明：「他們意識到如果是跟中國靠得太緊，可能會讓他們亡國。但如果跟美國靠得太緊跟日本靠得太緊，它又是共產黨國家，它的意識形態，它的共產黨統治可能受到威脅。在這種情況下，越南試圖想達到一種平衡，既想維持共產主義的政權體系和意識形態，同時又想用民族主義加強它的統治。」
美國有線新聞網《CNN》報導說，儘管領土紛爭點燃了暴力，但是在南海，雙方似乎都沒有顯示任何後退的跡象。越南官方媒體指責中共繼續顯示「侵略性」，派出更多軍艦到鑽井周圍海域。越南要求中共立刻從爭議海域撤回鑽井。
越南官員說，中共船隻衝撞越南船隻，向它們發射水炮。中共方面也指責越南船隻採取類似行動，說它們試圖擾亂鑽井鑽探運作。中共宣佈鑽井周圍三英里範圍是它的專屬區，這個鑽井由國營「中海油公司」運營。
中共軍方總參謀長房峰輝上週訪美，在會見美國聯席參謀長主席馬丁•鄧普西之後聲稱，「在領土問題上」，中共的態度是堅定的，「寸步不讓」。而鄧普西說，當前「我們不得不承認存在領土爭端」，包括「到底甚麼是現狀，以及誰在尋求改變它。」
夏明指出，中共在過去幾年，尤其從2008年奧運會之後，基本上走了一條強國、強軍、對外強硬擴張的態勢。而越南的反華暴力事件，令中共騎虎難下。
夏明：「現在中國老百姓都在看中國政府，如果你連越南都搞不定，那麼你過去吹噓的東西都是虛假的東西。那麼尤其如果你對中國老百姓這麼狠，對內這麼殘忍、這麼強暴，那你為甚麼對外一些利益沒有辦法作出應有的反應？所以在這種情況下，無論中國政府怎麼做，它如果做的太軟，會受到國內民族主義情緒對他的壓力。它如果做的太強硬，它真的要跟越南打一仗的話，這場戰爭可能會引發更大的衝突。」
況且中國能不能贏得這場戰爭，也是一個疑問。夏明指出，中共在79年跟越南交戰過程中死傷慘重。今天中共如果真跟越南打一仗的話，恐怕會給自己帶來國內政治、經濟危機的總爆發。
採訪編輯/秦雪 後製/鍾元
Communists Engage in Domestic Tension Diversion: Vietnam vs. China
After the violent anti-China demonstrations erupted in Vietnam,
in the military staff meeting between China and the United
States in the Pentagon, Washington warned Beijing’s
‘provocative’ use of military assets to resolve disputes.
Experts analyze that both Communist regimes have
engaged in targeting each other in order to divert the focus
away from
intensified domestic conflicts.
Communist China’s mouthpiece Xinhua News Agency
reported five Chinese vessels are scheduled to evacuate
Chinese nationals from Vietnam.
According to Department of Transportation, a ship has been
sent off from Hainan Province.
A chartered medical plane picked up the 16 critically
injured Chinese citizens on Sunday.
City University of New York Political Science Professor Xia
Ming explains that historically, China and Vietnam have
existed in a hostile relationship.
Vietnam had sought independence when an affiliated
state with China, and then as a colony of France, and finally
in the anti-American war.
Now as the largest trading partner of Vietnam, China has had
a great influence on Vietnam in politics, economy and culture.
Xia Ming: “The Vietnamese are very concerned about the close
tie with China, especially being a Communist country, and
the collapse of the country.
The Vietnamese nationalist sentiment has been the root of
conflict for a very long time.
This sentiment had caused the Battle of the Paracel Islands
in 1974 and the Sino-Vietnamese war in 1979.
These have planted the seeds of hatred.
With the flooding in of Chinese goods, Vietnam is under
tremendous stress and impact."
Vietnam is also faced with social problems such as an economic
crisis and high unemployment rate as well as frictions with
massive Chinese investors and tourists.
The stationed oil drilling rig from China in the Paracel area
has further enhanced the unrest in Vietnam.
Xia Ming believes that both Japan and the US have affected
the anxiety of Vietnam. The domestic power struggle has
urged the Vietnamese to seek a balance between China,
the US and Russia.
Xia Ming: “It realized that close ties with China could lead to
the collapse of the nation. Getting too close to the US or Japan,
however, also threatens its Communist rule and ideology.
Vietnam is seeking a balance between maintaining its
Communist Party and its Communism, and strengthening its
rule with nationalism."
CNN reported that out in the South China Sea, neither side
appears to be showing any sign of backing down over the
territorial dispute that sparked the violence.
The Vietnam’s state-run news agency VNA accused China of
continuing to show “its aggressiveness by sending more military
ships" to the area around the oil rig.
Vietnam has demanded that China immediately withdraw
the rig from the disputed waters.
The Vietnam official was quoted as saying that China ships
were provoking the Vietnamese vessels by ramming them and
firing water cannons at them.
China, for its part, has continued to accuse Vietnamese ships
of similar acts, saying they are trying to disrupt the oil rig’s
drilling operation. It has declared a three-mile exclusion zone
around the rig, which is operated by the state-owned oil and
gas company CNOOC, said CNN.
At the meeting in the Pentagon, China’s PLA Chief of the
General Staff General Fang Fenghui claimed that China,
“In matters, issues that relate to sovereignty or territorial
integrity, our attitude has been firm."
While his counter presenter, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman
General Martin E. Dempsey responded, “We have to
acknowledge that there are disputes, territorial disputes that
are in play here", and “what exactly is the status quo and
who has been seeking to change it".
Xia Ming indicates that Communist China has played an
image of power since the 2008 Olympic Games, in foreign
policy, military and territory.
The violent anti-China protests in Vietnam have
embarrassed the regime.
Xia Ming: “If they can’t handle the situation in Vietnam,
it is equivalent to telling the Chinese that the CCP has been
bragging falsely in the past.
They have engaged in cruelty and violence against their own
people for years, but can not handle an overseas incident?
Nationalism is putting the Communist regime under
great pressure if they react weakly.
However, if they react too tough, the war could lead to
greater conflict."
Moreover, it is questionable if China will win the war.
Xia Ming indicates that the 1979 war had resulted in heavy
casualties to the Chinese.
Should the war really erupt with Vietnam, an outbreak of
political and economic crisis is inevitable.
Interview & Edit/Qin Xue Post-Production/Zhong Yuan
