【新唐人2013年12月11日訊】中共的銀監會和央行最近分別釋放出消息，要加快推出「銀行破產條例」和「存款保險制度」。專家指出，目前中國經濟和銀行系統出現了巨大問題，北京不得不採取西方的做法，但是在現行的制度下，最後的結果，可能是導致民營銀行倒閉的同時，把老百姓最後一點錢騙進大型國有銀行。
據《中國證券報》12月9號報導，中共銀監會副主席閻慶民，在「北大經濟國富論壇」上表示，中國非信貸業務的綜合化經營水平有待提高，銀監會正醞釀加快推出「銀行破產條例」，如果商業銀行最後資不抵債，就會退出。
另外，由《搜狐網》主辦的年會論壇，12月8號在北京舉行。央行副行長劉士余在論壇上表示，目前具備推出「存款保險制度」的時機，業界呼籲多年的「存款保險制度」有望於明年初推出。
中國金融智庫研究員鞏勝利：「第一個原因，中國經濟的風險正在增大，第二銀行業破產的風險也在增大，第三，中國經濟，特別是老百姓害怕錢拿到銀行後，有去無回。這三種風險決定了，北京方面要作出一定的回應和對策。有些政策出爐是被大型企業、大型銀行綁架。」
大陸房地產大亨任志強在「搜狐年會論壇」上表示，過去十年中，政府用閒不住的手，干擾市場，而造成中國經濟巨大波動和許多領域中的倒退，包括產能結構調整，不但沒有優化反而惡化。
中國經濟學家茅於軾表示，政治上如果沒有大的改變，經濟改革也不可能成功，國家的進步往往被忽略了。
據了解，中國的「存款保險制度」，首先是在央行下屬的「金融穩定局」內，設一個「存款保險基金」，並由基金來管理，性質類似社保基金，等到未來條件成熟時，再設立完全獨立的存款保險公司。
鞏勝利：「按照市場經濟國家的規則，都要有保險，其一可能是為未來，可能會壯大，還有就是，即使現在賠不了老百姓，但是設在那兒，老百姓就看一看，有保險了，我們的錢放在那兒可能安全一些吧。」
中國金融智庫研究員鞏勝認為，對於一直在夾縫中求生存的中國民營中小銀行而言，「存款保險制度」的推行是雪上加霜。
一方面由於中小銀行風險係數比國有大銀行更高，中小銀行可能會繳納相對於國有大銀行更高比例的保費﹔另外，由於破產風險的存在，儲戶可能會將存款從中小銀行搬到國有大行﹔這樣一來，中小銀行為了吸收存款，可能會被迫提高存款利息，進而縮小存貸息差、增加經營成本。
《中國經營網》分析認為，「存款保險制度」的推行，是部分中小銀行破產的前兆。
中央財經領導小組辦公室巡視員方星海，在大陸《財經》網的年會上預計：也許明年某個時候，一、兩家中小型的銀行發生計提、倒閉的可能性很大。
那麼，在現行的體制下，中國的所謂金融改革到底是為了誰呢？
大陸金融投資顧問鄭志遙：「保險制度主要是針對民營銀行，因為銀行一破產，接下來政府要破產，政府在破產之前，先把老百姓搞破產，多印些紙幣，通貨膨脹一些，蒸發貨幣是看得見的，看不到的就是挽救銀行，其實挽救銀行，就是在挽救政府。」
天量的貨幣投放，與銀行業持續錢荒，這種互相背離的現象，已經成為中國金融系統特有的怪異現象。 10月底，中共總理李克強表示，廣義貨幣供應量M2已經是GDP的兩倍，再多發票子就有可能導致通貨膨脹，以致破壞市場，甚至造成人心惶惶。
據中共銀監會最新數據顯示，截至三季度末，中國商業銀行不良貸款餘額達到5,636億元，較年初增加707億元﹔不良貸款率達到0.97％，較二季度末上漲0.01個百分點。不良貸款率已連續七個季度呈上升趨勢。
大陸金融投資顧問鄭志遙指出，銀行的壞賬很大部分被銀行間的隔夜拆借掩蓋了起來。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/鍾元
You May Lose Everything from the Deposit Insurance System
Recently the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC)
and People’s Bank of China (Central Bank) of the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) recently sent a message to accelerate
“Bank Bankruptcy Ordinance" and “Deposit Insurance System".
Experts pointed out that China’s economy and banking system
have emerged with huge problems.
Beijing had to adopt the approach from the west.
However under the current system, the final result may be
the collapse of private banks and collecting the last bit of
people’s money to large state-owned banks.
On December 9 China Securities Journal reported CBRC
Vice Chairman Yan Qingmin’s statement at Beijing University
Economy And Wealth Forum.
“China’s operations of non-credit business needs to improve,
and the CBRC is working on accelerating the launch of “Bank
Bankruptcy Ordinance".
If commercial banks’ assets could not pay back debts,
they will exit.
On December 8 Central Bank vice president Liu Shiyu said
during sohu.net’s annual forum held in Beijing: “Currently it
is a good time to launch the “Deposit Insurance System,"
which was expected for many years.
It will hopefully be launched in 2014.
China’s financial think tank researcher Gong Shengli:
“The first reason is the increasing risk of China’s economy;
Secondly, bankruptcy risk of the banking sector increased;
Thirdly, Chinese people worry that their money put in the
bank wont come back.
These three risks push Beijing to make countermeasures.
Some released policies were determined by
large corporations and banks."
China’s real estate tycoon Ren Zhiqiang expressed during
the “Sohu Annual Forum" that the government’s restless
intervention to the market in the past decade has caused
huge economic fluctuations and retrogression in many fields.
So its production structural adjustment was a step back
rather than making progress.
Chinese economist Mao Yushi said economic reform
cannot succeed without any major political change.
The country’s progress is often ignored.
It is understood that China’s “Deposit Insurance System"
is to first set up a “Deposit Insurance Fund" at the Financial
Stability Bureau reporting to the Central Bank.
It will be managed by the “Deposit Insurance Fund",
similar to the “Social Security Fund".
Independent deposit insurance companies will be set up
once the situation has matured.
Gong Shengli: “Market economy must have insurance.
It is good for the future.
People also feel it is safer to put their money into."
Gong Shengli thinks “Deposit Insurance System" is a blow
for private small and medium (SME) banks in China which
have been struggling to survive.
On one hand SME banks have higher risk factors than state-
owned banks, so they might pay higher insurance premiums
compared to large state-owned banks;
On the other hand, people might take their money away and
put it into large state-owned banks due to bankruptcy risks.
So SMEs are forced to raise interest to attract deposits,
thus reducing profit and increasing operating costs.
“China Business Network" analyzed that implementation
of the “Deposit Insurance System" signals the collapse of
some SME banks.
CCP’s Central Financial Leadership Group Office Inspector
Fang Xinghai forecasted during the annual meeting of China’s
Finance Network:"the possibility of a couple of SME banks
collapsing next year is high."
Then, for whom is China’s so-called financial reform
in the current system?
China’s financial investment advisers Zheng Zhiyao: “The
Insurance system is mainly for private banks, as collapse of
banks would lead to bankruptcy of the government.
Before the government goes bankrupt, it will make people
bankrupt.
It is visible to see printing paper money and inflation.
What is invisible is saving the banks and the government."
High levels of money supply and continuous money shortage
have become China’s unique issue of the financial system.
At the end of October, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said
that Quasi-money supply (M2) is already 200% of GDP.
More paper money will lead to inflation,
market disruption and even panic.
CBRC’s latest data indicate as of end of Q3, the balance of
non-performing loans of China’s commercial banks reached
563.6 billion yuan.
This is 70.7 billion yuan more compared with the start of
2013, with non-performing loan ratio of 0.97 percent,
0.01 percent higher than the end of Q2.
Non-performing loan ratio has increased
for seven consecutive quarters.
China’s Banking And Investment Consultant Zheng Zhiyao
pointed out that much of banks’ bad debts are covered by
overnight lending between banks.
Interview & Edit/LiuHui Post-Production/ZhongYuan
