【新唐人2013年11月02日訊】截至10月27號，四大銀行存款下降1.29萬億，股市資金也流出上千億元，央行重新啟動暫停了兩週的逆回購操作，不過，130億的地量逆回購，也沒有解決資金流動性困境，銀行間隔夜同業拆放利率突破5％關口至5.23％，7天同業隔夜拆借利率逼近5.6％。國債需求平淡，錢荒之聲再起。錢到哪裏去了？我們看看專家怎麼說。
據《上海證券報》10月31號報導，消息人士透露，工商銀行、建設銀行、中國銀行、農業銀行存款持續流出的趨勢仍未得到改善，截至10月27號，27天內四大銀行存款流失1.29萬億元，較上一週持續流失2800億元。
大陸金融投資顧問鄭先生：「銀行的風險不就是把錢派給了國企、央企和地方政府的各類融資金牌嗎，金監會、銀監會一看，到國務院一看，然後甚麼都不說了，銀行自己成立一個資產處理公司，把這些呆賬壞賬進行打包，再拍賣給國家，造成的損失當然全民買單，通貨膨脹。」
存款下降，貸款卻沒有相應增加。截至10月27號，四大銀行新增貸款僅為930億元。
那麼，存款去哪裏了呢？
大陸金融分析師任中道：「經過分析，它沒有流入到實體經濟，比如它的貸款只有930億元，那跟1.2萬億是非常大的一個差別，我的看法，它資金外逃出來了，不可能這錢的存款出來了，都在手裡揣著吧。」
同時，資金面緊張導致新發國債招標遇冷。10月30號，中共財政部發行1年期固定利率國債，中標利率為4.01％，高出此前預測中標利率區間的3.74％—3.90％，但需求還是平淡。
由於擔憂錢荒，黃金市場也出現恐慌現象。10月30號，中國黃金收盤價，今年來首次低於全球金價。
另外，股市資金也在持續流出，據上海萬得公司（Wind資訊）數據，在9月2號至10月16號的26個交易日中，全部A股資金淨流出總額為1597.42億元，日均資金淨流出額為61.44億元。
任中道：「主要現在各種資金都在加速逃離中國，外匯也好，甚至通過各種貿易，地下錢莊，一些投資者也認為，現在中國經濟不是很好，危機可能也要到來，他們從股市、從黃金都是在拋售，把現金收回來。」
「建行」最新公布的三季度報告顯示，「建行」3季度末，「向中共央行借款」由年初62.8億元飆升到2224.3億元，增幅高達3441%。這一點在其他三家大行身上也有所體現。
這代表中共央行以低於同期限的「上海銀行間同業拆放利率（The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate， Shibor）」幾十個點的價格，將資金出借給大型商業銀行，大型銀行作為市場穩定器，再轉拆借給其他商業銀行，從中賺取差價。
任中道：「以房地產做例子，房地產弄不到錢怎麼辦，它就找信託公司，說我給你15%的利息，你幫我找貸款，信託公司找銀行，說我給你10%的利息，你幫我做理財產品，銀行做了個包裝，取個名頭，然後給老百姓說，我給你5%的利息，線路圖是很明顯的，最後全落在了老百姓身上。」
據上海《第一財經日報》11月1號報導，日前寧波理財產品6億募資失蹤，其中有寧波銀行閔行支行客戶經理介入，以「上海市閔行區動遷安置房項目二期D款」的產品，向客戶募資。一對老年夫婦100萬血汗錢不能兌現，老年夫婦如坐針氈。
鄭先生：「銀行業早就開始在逐步的轉嫁風險，理財產品的增加，其實就是銀行轉嫁風險的一種方式，其實還是從銀行把錢搞走了。」
10月29號，國務院發展研究中心主任李偉在「世界工商協會論壇」上表示，三、四線城市出現泡沫破裂現象。
大陸金融投資顧問鄭先生指出，銀行業把百姓的辛辛苦苦賺來的一點存款，貸給有錢人賺錢，房地產一旦泡沫破裂，中共央行再大量印製鈔票，來維持穩定，最後通貨膨脹的風險還是轉嫁在老百姓身上。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/孫寧
Where Did 1.3 Trillion Go?
Sources say that China´s big four banks have seen
a 1.29 trillion yuan negative deposit as of Oct. 27.
Several hundreds of billions of stocks flowed out.
China´s Central Bank restarted the reverse purchase
operation (repo) after having ceased it for two weeks.
However, 13 billion yuan injected into the system still
couldn´t resolve the cash shortage crisis.
The repo rate increased from 5% to 5.23%.
Within seven days the repo rate approached 5.6%.
National bonds were in less demand,
resulting in a cash shortage reoccurrance.
Some people questioned, “where does the money go?”
Let´s take a look.
On October 31, “Shanghai Securities News”
reported information from a reliable source.
Industrial and Commercial Bank, Construction Bank,
Bank of China and Agricultural Bank deposits had
continuing outflow, and the trend hasn´t improved.
As of October 27, these four big banks saw a 1.29 trillion
yuan in outflow of deposits during October alone.
280 billion yuan has flowed out compared to last week.
Mr. Zheng, Chinese financial investment consultant:
“The cause of the credit crunch is that the banks lent money
to the state-owned enterprises and the local governments.
Once the Financial Supervisory Commission went to the State
Council (chasing payment), they dared not to speak anymore.
Thus the banks have to set up their own asset management
company to put these companies who owe them money
in an auction, selling them to the state.
Finally, the loss certainly will be paid by civilians,
which can also cause inflation.”
The deposits dragged down, but loads didn´t increase.
Sources say the big four banks extended only 93 billion yuan
in new loans as of Oct. 27.
Nevertheless, where is the money?
Ren Zhongdao, Chinese financial analyst: “The analysis
shows the money didn´t flow into the economy.
For example, there are only 93 billion yuan in loans.
Compared with 1.2 trillion, that is a big difference.
I believe that the money has flowed out,
it is impossible to withdraw the cash
and hold it in their hands.”
Meanwhile, the cash shortage caused less demands for newly
issued national bonds.
On Oct. 30, the Financial Ministry issued national bonds
with a one-year fixed rate of 4.01%, which
is higher than the estimated of 3.74% – 3.9%.
But not many people are buying it.
As the money shortage is worrying many,
the gold market appears to be in a panic.
On Oct. 30, the Chinese gold closing price was below
the global price for the first time this year.
In addition, stocks are constantly flowing out.
Shanghai Wind Information statistics shows that
from September 2 to October 16,
160 billion A-shares have flowed out.
The daily outflow is 6.2 billion yuan.
Ren Zhongdao: “Various funds accelerate flowing out China,
including foreign currency, fleeing through a variety
of trade channels and underground banks.
Even some investors say that the current Chinese economy
is not very good, the crisis is on its way.
Thus people are cashing out their shares and gold.”
China Construction Bank´s Quarter 3 report shows,
at end of Q3, the Construction bank borrowed loans
from Central Bank, and it increased from 6.28 at early
this year to 222.43 billion yuan by now.
It has increased 3441%.
This phenomenon also occurred at the three other big banks.
China´s Central Bank lent money to big commercial banks
at a lower rate than the Shanghai Interbank offered rate.
The commercial banks re-lent the loans to the other
commercial banks to make a profit.
Ren Zhongdao: “We´ll take real estate as example.
If the real estate companies can´t get a loan from the banks,
they approach the trust companies, telling the trust companies
that they can pay a 10% interest rate and let the trust company
handle their funds.
Then the trust companies create a package telling the public
that they can offer 5% interests rate.
In the end, the people pay the bill.”
On November 1, Shanghai´s China Business News newspaper
reported that 600 million yuan is missing
at a fundraising company in Ningbo.
A manager at a branch of Ningbo Bank was involved
in the event.
He fundraised the money from clients for a project.
An elderly couple injected one million yuan of hard-earned
money but in the end they can´t cash it in.
They are so worried.
Mr. Zheng: “The bank sectors are gradually transferring risk.
The increasing fundraiser products are the way
the banks transfer the risk.
Actually, the money was transferred
to somewhere else from the banks.”
On Oct. 29, Li Wei, director of the State Council
Development Research Center, spoke in a forum.
Li said that the bubble burst phenomenon
appeared in third and fourth-tier cities.
Financial investment consultant Mr. Zheng says that the banks
lend people´s hard-earned savings to the rich to make money.
Once the housing bubble burst, the Central Bank
will issue more bank notes to maintain the stability.
Finally, the inflation risk will be loaded on civilians´ shoulders.
