【新唐人2013年10月24日訊】目前，中國經濟增長放緩，成為海內外關注的焦點話題。美國《稀缺中國》一書的作者——馬暘和葉文斌說，制約中國未來發展的最大問題是「稀缺」，這種「稀缺」不侷限在資源和商品方面，還延伸到社會和政治問題層面。中國問題專家推薦這本書給國際人士，他說，讀這本書可以讓他們了解，中共國家主席習近平是為了甚麼寢食難安﹖
「如果你想知道是甚麼讓中共國家主席習近平晚上睡不著覺？那就讀讀這本書吧。」
《美國之音》報導，美國「加州大學」中國問題專家大力推薦的，就是《稀缺中國》(In Line Behind A Billion People: How Scarcity Will Define China’s Ascent in the Next Decade)這本書。
《稀缺中國》的作者，一位是美國「保爾森學院(Paulson Institute)」的研究員馬暘，一位是「PNC金融服務集團」的資深國際經濟學家葉文斌，他們在書中探討了制約中國未來十年發展的最大因素。
馬暘在回答美國《華爾街日報》記者提問時表示，從一開始，中國的自然資源條件就有限，在過去10年到15年那種極度的資源和能源密集型增長模式，已經對本就稀缺的自然條件造成了巨大的壓力，而在未來的10年當中，這種增長對未來發展的漣漪效應將變得越來越明顯。
這本書的前三分之一篇幅，針對中國的資源稀缺進行了分析，包括能源和其他的大宗商品、食品和勞動力。不過，馬暘和葉文斌並沒有把分析侷限在這裡，他們還把「稀缺」的概念延伸到了社會和政治問題方面。
《稀缺中國》作者馬暘：「中國基本上還在用20世紀的政治體系來解決21世紀的社會問題，譬如說信息環境。整個新一代中國人出生和成長在一個完全不同的政治社會環境中。換句話說，過去30年裡，一個可以統治社會的政治系統可能不需要那麼先進，但如果要管理好現在的社會，需要一個先進得多的政治系統。」
時事評論員李善鑒：「其實我覺得，它的體制從來都是問題，它以前造成以前的問題，比如說以前的三年飢荒， 整個的國民經濟差不多處於破產的邊緣，現在（的體制），造成現在的問題。」
中共當局近期開展的反腐活動，以及抓捕在微博所謂「造謠、傳謠」人士。馬暘認為，這些活動背後另有目地。
《稀缺中國》作者馬暘：「說是要抓老虎和蒼蠅，現在看到他們兩個都在抓，但是，我們覺得這不光是政治原因，也是用政治的手段來開始一些經濟方面的改革。」
他們說，中國水資源緊缺、環境惡化、食品供給不足，地理資源和自然能源有限本身，就是很難解決的問題，再加上中共當局過去幾年進行的很多基建投資、生產投資、和房地產投資，帶來很多債務和泡沫增長，而陳舊落後的政治體系，都是制約中國未來十年發展的因素之一。
自去年中共「十八大」後，新一屆中共黨魁習近平相繼出臺了一系列舉措，包括﹕燃起了「反貪腐、轉作風、應民意」等三把大火﹔「堅持『老虎』『蒼蠅』一起打！」、「打鐵還要自身硬！」﹔習近平還公開承認「腐敗問題愈演愈烈，最終必然會亡黨亡國！」等。
英國《金融時報》發表評論文章說，不幸的是，在今天的中國，打擊腐敗基本上依賴於起訴腐敗官員，而不是改革政治、經濟和社會制度，它們給腐敗提供了肥沃的土壤。
前中央政治改革研究室研究員 吳偉：「現在社會存在的各種各樣的矛盾，和經濟發展過程中，各種各樣的難題很多，要解決這些問題，他必須抓住這個社會上這些問題一些主要的或者深層次的原因，如果從經濟發展和自然生態破壞來看，中國目前需要的是真正的體制改革。」
《稀缺中國》還提到，隨著中國人口老化、獨生子女政策導致的就業人員短缺，高校畢業生就業難，普通民眾難以負擔高漲的房價等，都是中共當局應當解決的隱患。
採訪編輯/常春 後製/施怡君
New Book: “In Line Behind a Billion People" Makes Xi Jinping Anxious
At present, the growth of China’s economy is slowing down,
giving rise to attention inside and outside China.
Damien Ma and William Adams, authors of an American book,
In Line Behind a Billion People: How Scarcity Will Define
China’s Ascent in the Next Decade, said:
that the biggest issue for China’s growth is “scarcity". This “scarcity"
isn’t limited in resources and the availability of primary goods,
but also covers social and political issues.
China issues’ expert recommends this book to the international
community and says that this book will help people to understand
why Xi Jinping, the current Chinese president is so anxious.
If you want to know what makes Chinese President
Xi Jinping sleepiness at night, read this book now!
According to the report of “Voice of America", the U.S. China
issues’ expert from University of California strongly recommends
the book “In Line Behind A Billion People: How Scarcity Will Define
China’s Ascent in the Next Decade".
The writers of the book are Damien Ma, a researcher at
the Paulson Institute and William Adams, senior
international economist at the PNC Financial Services Group.
They discuss the biggest factor which will limit
the development of China in the next decade.
Damien Ma answered when questioned by a Reporter from
U.S. Wall Street Journal, “China was endowed with limited
natural resources from the get-go,
but the incredible resource and energy-intensive growth model
of the last 10-15 years has exerted enormous pressures on these
already scarce endowments
—and the ripple effects of this kind of growth on future development
are going to become more evident over the next decade."
The first one-third of the book analyzes the scarcity of
resources in China which include energy, commodities, food
and labor.
However, Ma and Adams do not limit the subject matter,
but extend the concept of scarcity to the social and political
arena.
Damien Ma: “China still has a sort of 20th century political
system that is trying to deal with 21st century problems and
society.
You can talk about the information environment.
You have an entire generation of people growing in
a society and an environment that is very different from
the political system that were used to.
So in other words, for the last three decades, the system didn’t need
to be too sophisticated in managing society, but now I think
it needs to be a lot more sophisticated."
Li Shanjian, a political commentator, “In fact, I think that
the system is always the problem.
It caused the previous problems like the three years of famine
when the entire national economy was on the verge of bankruptcy.
The system also caused the current issues."
The Chinese Government launched anti-corruption activities
and arrested so-called “micro-blog rumor mongers".
Damien Ma thinks these activities have their unsaid reasons.
Damien Ma: “It said will beat fly and tiger. It looks that it beats
fly and tiger. But we think this is not only for political reasons,
but using a political means to start some economic reforms."
They claim in their book that China is short of water,
the environment is deteriorating, food supply is not sufficient.
The geography and natural energy resources are very limited.
All of these issues are hard to solve. Furthermore, the Communist
government made lots of investments in infrastructure,
production and real estate which has created a lot of debts and
dangerous bubbles.
With the unenlightened political system, they are factors
that will limit the development of China in the next decade.
Since the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) 18th congress
which took place last year, Xi Jinping the new party leader
launched a series of initiatives.
These initiatives include, “an anti-corruption campaign, changing
work practices, and listening to public opinion",
“Consistent with beating fly and tiger together",
“blacksmith should have muscles", etc..
Recently, Xi Jinping said publicly that “corruption is
getting worse and worse, which will destroy the party,
destroy the country", etc..
The British “Financial Times" published a review article
which said that unfortunately beating corruption in today’s
China is basically relying on suing the corrupted officials.
It’s not based on reforms of the political, economic,
social systems, which affords a fertile ground for corruption.
Wu Wei, former researcher of Central Political Reform
Institute, “Now, there are a variety of social contradictions.
With economic progress there’re all kinds of difficulties.
To solve these issues, he (Xi Jinping) must grasp at the root
of the deep social problems.
Standing on point of the economic development and the
damage of the natural ecology, what’s China need now is
a real system reform."
In Line Behind a Billion People also mentions that:
along with the aging Chinese population, the one-child policy
has led to the shortage of employees, college graduates find
it hard to find a job, ordinary people don’t have money to pay
for the expensive house, etc..
All of these are risks that the authorities should solve now.
