【新唐人2013年10月22日訊】自今年6月以來，大陸銀行的房貸業務就進入了「冬眠期」。近期，多個城市的銀行更是出現了「房貸荒」，紛紛曝出了「暫停房貸」的消息，使得「剛需一族」的貸款購房夢成了泡影。專家分析，這次銀行的房貸荒既是「錢荒」的延續，也是樓市風險加劇的體現。
最近一段時間，大陸北京、天津、山東、江蘇、廣州、武漢等地的多家銀行，都出現了不同程度的「房貸荒」，雖然各家銀行沒有統一口徑公告停止房貸，但是大部份銀行都以額度用盡為由，暫停了房貸業務。
中信銀行江蘇蘇州常熟方塔支行工作人員：「我們社裡不再做、信用社不再做、不是說取消，是暫時沒有額度了，所以就也不再做。」
自從大陸媒體曝出了銀行停辦房貸的消息引發爭議後，一些在記者採訪中明確表示停止辦理房貸業務的銀行，如華夏銀行天津紅橋支行、平安銀行廣州萬達廣場支行等，多家銀行的諮詢電話，已經無法撥通，其它銀行也紛紛收緊口風，不再直說「停貸」，而是用無法確定放貸時間之類的「拖」字訣來推諉。
興業北京海淀區分行知春路支行工作人員：「現在我們銀行放不出來貸款。關鍵是我們不能保證甚麼時候能給您放出來。現在各個銀行都沒有額度，所有銀行都這樣，現在。」
一些銀行雖然沒有停止房貸業務，但也紛紛取消了原有的首套房利率優惠，普遍實行基準利率，甚至很多銀行將利率上浮10%到40%，變相拒絕房貸申請者。
華夏銀行北京宣武區和平門支行工作人員：「一套都上浮……最少要上浮百分幾都有可能，反正肯定要上浮。現在目前就是上浮，沒有甚麼原因，目前它貸款需求就這樣的。」
據《搜房網》調查發現，雖然工、農、中、建四大國有銀行目前還沒有「停貸」，但房貸額度緊張的現狀已經極為嚴峻。一家國有銀行的工作人員在接受大陸媒體記者採訪時坦言：「今天還能辦，將來怎麼樣不好說，現在關於個人房貸的政策『一天一個樣』。」
目前，坊間對於銀行「房貸荒」的解讀多種多樣，總體上可以歸納為三大原因：一是銀行資金緊張，沒錢貸﹔二是房貸風險加劇導致銀行不敢放貸﹔三是理財產品利率升高造成了房貸利潤急劇下降。
中國金融分析師任中道：「它真實的各銀行的現金是非常緊張的，因為它存款不夠，就不能再往外放貸款。一個是它的『錢荒』，沒錢。另一個是因為它風險大，它也不願意放。」
中國金融分析師任中道指出，溫州的「棄房斷供」以及房屋過剩造成的遍地「鬼城」，雖然還沒有波及到一、二線城市，但是在為數眾多的三、四線城市已經苗頭初現。使得對風險極為敏感的銀行更加謹慎，各金融機構名單上的「高危之地」越來越多。
任中道：「被暴露出來只是溫州，其他一些地方也有這樣的情況，或者是沒報導。據我所知，像鄂爾多斯、陝西神木啊，這些民間借貸比較多的地方，都有這種情況，它是一個苗頭，然後銀行都有風控部嘛——風險控制部，它從總行下達這樣的命令，就是說要收緊（房貸），要注意這個事情。」
業內專家預測，銀行的「房貸荒」在11月以後會繼續加劇，而停貸現象對房地產市場成交量和房價的影響，可能將導致房地產市場出現「有價無市」的局面。
採訪編輯/張天宇 後製/鍾元
Chinese Banks Stop Mortgage Lending To Avoid Increased Risks
Since this June, mainland Chinese banks have gone into
“hibernation” mode in home mortgage lending.
Recently, the situation has become worse as banks
in many Chinese cities have even halted giving home loans.
This is a huge blow to those who’ve
had wishes of buying a house.
Some expert say the “home loan shortage” of China ‘s banks
is a succession of its “money shortage”, and also a reflection
of an increased risk in the real estate market.
Recently, a number of Chinese banks have been facing
different degrees of “home loan shortages” in Beijing, Tianjin,
Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangzhou and Wuhan.
Although most of them have not officially announced
stopping home loan service, they have indeed suspended
the service on the grounds of an “exhausted credit line”.
Employee of China CITIC Bank’s Suzhou Fangta Branch:
“Currently our branch no longer offers home loans.
The service is not canceled, just suspended,
because we’ve depleted our credit line.”
Public disputes have arisen since the news of “home loan
suspensions” was reported by the media.
Some reporters had tried to call the service hotlines of
branches that had halted the home loan service.
However, many branches, such as Tianjin Hongqiao Branch
of Hua Xia Bank and Guangzhou Wanda Square Branch of
Ping An Bank, did not pick up the calls.
After that, many other banks have become more careful
in choosing their words in response to queries on the issue,
saying things like “the timeline for resuming the service
is unknown” instead of saying “no more home loans”.
Employee of Beijing Zhichun Road Branch, Industrial Bank
Co.: “At present we are not able to offer loans.
More importantly, we have no guarantee on when we
can do that.
No branch has an available credit line.
At present, they’re all like this.”
For those banks that still are offering home loans, they have
also called off first-house mortgage lending discounts
and instead implemented standard lending rates.
Many of them have even increased rates by 10% to 40%,
which is simply another way of “refusing” mortgage applicants.
Employee of Beijing Hepingmen Branch, Hua Xia Bank:”
Even for the first house the lending rate will go up.
It will definitely go up, at least by several percents.
The rate is increasing with no particular reason,
since the loan demand is just like that right now.”
According to a survey conducted by SouFun, a major
Chinese real estate website, although China ‘s “Big Four”
state-owned banks have not suspended home loan service,
the problem of tight credit lines has become extreme serious.
When interviewed by mainland media, an employee of one
of those state-owned banks made the confession that:
“We are still good today, but it is hard to say about tomorrow.
Now the policy on personal home loans changes daily.”
Currently there are many different interpretations of
the “home loan shortage”.
In general, they can be summarized as three major reasons:
First, banks are short of money to offer loans;
second, banks are reluctant to offer loans as the risk
becomes much higher; third, banks are making more benefits
from financing services and much less from home loans.
Ren Zhongdao, Chinese financial analyst:”The truth is that
all banks are very short of cash.
The deposits are not enough; therefore it cannot
lend more money.
So this is the first reason, ‘money shortage’.
There is no money.
Another reason is, the risk of loan service has become
higher and banks don ‘t want to do that any more.”
Chinese financial Ren Zhongdao says that
the large-scale foreclosure in Wenzhou and widespread
“ghost cities” due to over-construction begin to show
their effects on numerous third- or fourth-tier cities,
although the impact has yet to be seen in larger cities.
In such a situation, the very risk-sensitive banking industry
has to be even more careful, and the list of “high-risk cities”
is becoming longer and longer for all financial agencies.
Ren Zhongdao:”Only the story of Wenzhou was revealed
to the public, but there are similar cases elsewhere
that have not been reported.
To my knowledge, similar things also happened in places
with more private lending, such as Ordos City or
Shenmu County of Shaanxi Province.
This is a trend observed by the banks because they all have
risk management departments.
Then the headquarters commands all branches, telling them
to pay more attention and tighten control over home loans.”
Experts predict that the “home loan shortage” will
become worse after November.
Talking about its impacts, “reining in mortgage lending”
may finally result in a situation of “Zero Purchasing Power”
in China ‘s real estate market.
