【新唐人2013年09月24日訊】今年以來，中共內部權力鬥爭不斷，為了消除大陸民眾對當局的不滿聲音，中共近期還展開了一場被民間稱為「網路文字獄」的淨網運動，而中共的執政合法性，也因此受到了全民各階層以及國際社會的質疑，甚至號稱「中共高幹搖籃」的中共「中央黨校」內部，也開始公開討論中共政權滅亡的問題。
英國《金融時報》駐京記者吉密歐，最近採訪了位於北京西部的中共「中央黨校」，他發現，這裏的共產黨員們開始討論一個過去沒有人敢公開提出的話題——中共政權的崩潰時間。
各大媒體轉載了《金融時報》9月20號發表的這篇長篇評論文章。文章說，對於「中共專政還能在中國維持多久？」一位不願透露姓名的「中央黨校」教授表示：「這是每個中國人的疑問。」事實上，這個問題自從1989年「天安門廣場大屠殺」和「蘇聯解體」之後，成為一個常年的問題。
對此，有評論分析，中共真的已經到了民心盡失的地步，以至於整個社會從上到下、各個階層，都在盼望著中共政權崩潰的這一天到來，甚至連號稱「紅色搖籃」和「黨性鍛練熔爐」的「中央黨校」，也已經不再否認中共滅亡的必然性，轉而計劃當中共滅亡那一天到來時，共產黨員該怎麼辦。
旅德極權主義研究學者仲維光：「共產黨把握著權利，倒行逆施，使得民眾在受剝削、壓迫，受到欺侮的時候無處維權，這樣一個現象已經在中國社會的每一個角落都滲透了。在這樣一種情況下，在這樣一種民眾沒有人再相信共產黨、再被共產黨迷惑的情況下，這樣一個黨，它怎麼可能不倒臺呢？所以它的末日屈指可數。」
《金融時報》文章總結了大量中國知識份子和西方傑出漢學家的觀點說，中共具備了所有滅亡的因素，並引述了美國「喬治華盛頓大學」中國政策研究系主任瀋大偉的看法，認為，今天的中國與中國歷史上任何末代王朝無異。
仲維光：「我在德國經歷過1989年，現在中共面臨的情況很像東歐當時1989的情況，有大量東德的人，經過其他的國家，跑向西德。就是因為在1989年的時候，東歐國家的民眾徹底拋棄了共產黨，在對共產黨離心離德的這種程度上，已經到達了相當的地步，因此就造成了11月9號柏林牆倒塌，整個共產黨的滅亡。」
中國互聯網上，一篇名為「歷代王朝滅亡前十大徵兆」的博文在網路熱傳，文章暗諷中共亡黨的十大徵兆：
一、官民對立，社會動盪。二、思想混亂，人心浮動。三、加強社會各方控制。四、亂加稅收，橫徵暴斂。五、亂髮紙幣，貨幣貶值。六、上層醉生夢死，下層苦不堪言。七、體質殭化，不思進變。八、中下層失去上升空間。九、軍隊腐敗，士氣低迷。十、粉飾太平，歌功頌德。
仲維光指出，隨著資訊的發達和人們密切的溝通聯繫，越來越多的大陸民眾，在了解中共的真實面目和本質後，對中共的統治徹底喪失了信心，這將成為中共政權崩潰的一個重要因素，也是最令中共驚恐擔憂的。
仲維光：「最近10年以來，共產黨早就風聲鶴唳、草木皆兵，尤其是從2004年以後，在海內外進行的『退黨』，這個活動實際上從最根本的地方瓦解共產黨，這就是10年以後，大家看到的，今天的人心都散了這個現象的一個很重要的原因。」
中共政權最終崩潰的導火索，會是哪個﹖目前輿論的說法不一，有人認為可能是經濟危機的爆發，也有人認為可能是社會矛盾引發的「阿拉伯之春」式的革命浪潮，也有人認為會和平演變。但有一點不能否認，那就是，連中共高層也已經做好了中共滅亡後逃亡的準備，他們已經知道，這一天終將到來。
採訪編輯/ 張天宇 後製/鍾元
How Much Longer Can the CCP Regime Last in China?
Powers struggles within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
have continued to worsen since the beginning of this year.
In order to stifle people voicing their dissatisfaction, the CCP
authorities recently intensified suppression of internet speech.
Thus, more people from all levels of society are being led
to question the CCP’s ruling legitimacy.
Even at the CCP Party School, the “breeding ground for senior
CCP cadres," people are discussing the CCP’s collapse.
Jamil Anderlini, Beijing reporter for UK based Financial Times,
recently did interviews at the CCP Central Party School.
He found out CCP members there have begun to discuss a topic
that no one dared openly raise in the past–
the time of the CCP’s collapse.
Major media republished the long editorial report
that was published on September 20 by Financial Times.
On the issue of “how long will the CCP regime last?",
the article quotes a CCP Party School professor,
who withheld his name, as saying that
“this is the question of every Chinese person."
In fact, this has been a question since 1989, following the
June 4th Tiananmen Massacre and
the dissolution of the former Soviet Union.
Commentators say that the CCP has lost the people’s trust.
The entire society, at all social levels from the top down,
all are looking forward the day of its collapse.
Even its “Red Cradle", the CCP Party School, doesn’t deny it,
they are planning on what to do when the CCP actually falls.
Zhong Weiguang, Germany based researcher of totalitarianism:
“The CCP grasps power, exploits and oppresses people.
People have no place to defend their rights.
This is the case in every part of China’s society.
No one believes in the CCP,
nor will they be cheated by it any more.
How could such a regime not fall? It’s days are numbered."
The Financial Times article summarizes the viewpoints of
a large number of Chinese intellectuals and
prominent Western sinologists,
that all factors are in place for the CCP to perish.
It cited David Shambaugh, China Policy Research Department
director at U.S. George Washington University,
who says that today’s China is no different
from the ending era of any dynasty in China’s history.
Zhong Weiguang:"In 1989 I was in Germany.
Today’s China is very similar to Eastern Europe in 1989.
Many people from East Germany fled to West Germany.
In 1989, the Eastern European people completely abandoned
the communist party, causing the collapse of the Berlin Wall
and the perish of the communist party."
An article titled:"Ten Key Signs of the End of All Dynasties,"
has been spreading widely online in China.
It characterizes the end of the CCP in ten points:
1. Social unrest and hostility between officials and the people
2. Ideological confusion and insecurity
3. Tightening social control
4. Chaotic taxes and exactions
5. Recklessly printing banknotes and devaluation
6. Decadent upper class and a miserable lower class
7. Rigid system without progress
8. No room to upgrade for the middle and low classes
9. Military corruption and low morale
10. Praising propaganda
Zhong Weiguang says that with technological advances
and people’s close communication and contact,
more and more people in China have completely lost faith
in the CCP after knowing of its true nature.
This will be an important factor in the CCP’s collapse,
as well as what the CCP fears most.
Zhong Weiguang: “The CCP has been very nervous
in the last 10 years, especially since 2004.
The international movement to quit the CCP is disintegrating
the CCP most fundamentally.
It is the essential reason why now, 10 years later,
today’s people no longer believe in the CCP."
What will finally trigger the CCP’s collapse?
There are different speculations.
Some say it will be economic crisis, some say it might be
social conflicts leading to movements similar to the “Arab Spring."
Some believe there will be a peaceful transformation.
One thing cannot be denied is that
CCP senior officials have prepared for escaping after its end.
They know that the day is coming.
NTD Reporter Zhang Tianyu
