【新唐人2013年09月07日訊】最近一個月的時間內，香港首富李嘉誠旗下的長江實業、和記黃埔相繼宣告，或將拋售百佳超市、上海陸家嘴東方匯經中心OFC寫字樓，以及廣州西城都薈廣場和停車場，涉及金額約為410億港元。經濟學者指出，中國經濟面臨崩潰邊緣，而美國製造業再次興起，良禽擇木而棲是明智之舉。
繼出售百佳超市後，10天前，有消息指稱，李嘉誠旗下公司長江實業集團打算出售其在上海陸家嘴開發的首個寫字樓項目——「東方匯經OFC」，售價60億元人民幣以上。作為長江實業在上海的第一棟甲級辦公樓，李嘉誠在持有6年後出售讓人頗感意外。長江實業承認正在商談出售該物業意向。
另外，李嘉誠也在迅速出售廣州物業。近日，和記黃埔發公告顯示，出售雅和50%的股權，而雅和持有廣州西城都薈廣場，以及位於其地庫一層與二層的所有停車場、老年活動中心，公司一共套現約26億元人民幣。
北京天則經濟研究所副所長馮興元分析，李嘉誠從大陸撤資跟大環境有關。
北京天則經濟研究所副所長馮興元：「現在歐洲的房地產價格偏低，美國的製造業前景非常好。美國經濟可能要重新帶動整個世界往前走。中國的地位相對而言應該靠後。而且中國自己可能會遇到一些比較嚴重的經濟（危機），財政，金融方面的一些麻煩。比如地方財政的負債率已經非常高。」
馮興元表示，中國地方債務現在已經出了很多問題。很多的不良資產是以銀行的以新還舊來掩蓋的。地方政府甚至沒錢支付給施工隊。他認為，中國經濟如果有大的波動，可能會造成樓市崩盤。溫州的房價現在比原來降了40%，鄂爾多斯房價降到原來的25%的水平，都是跟經濟出了大問題有關。
最近，北京一高價新地王誕生，北京農業展覽館一塊地皮落槌價每平米高達7.3萬元人民幣。火熱的拍地現場卻難見長江實業的身影。長江實業連續缺席北京農展館地塊、上海徐家匯中心項目、杭州華家池等地塊拍賣現場。長實董事郭子威以上海徐家匯中心項目為例回應說，這塊地僅地價就要投入200多億，等到上市需要投入400多億，還要保證在一定時間內有投資回報率，時間長，風險大。
9月4號，中國知名企業家、萬科集團董事長王石發出博文：「精明的李嘉誠先生在賣北京、上海的物業，這是一個信號，小心了！」
大陸投資顧問鄭志遙表示，李嘉誠撤離大陸證明他目前對中國的經濟模式和經濟前景是不看好的。
大陸投資顧問鄭志遙：「他的資產變向就是他看到了危險來臨，危險來臨那就規避風險，提前跑路。我們假設一下，再堅硬的泡沫它也會破滅。可以說我們處於金融危機的邊緣。我們就站在火山的旁邊，或者是懸崖的旁邊，龐大的過剩產能，還有債務問題傳播廣泛。」
李嘉誠作為頂端商人，一貫政治經濟嗅覺靈敏。1989年「六四事件」後，當時很多外資企業大舉撤資中國時，李嘉誠逆流而上，大舉進軍中國大陸市場，成為香港在中國大陸的最大投資者。
中國財經網站《金融界》9月3號以「首富李嘉誠為何變心了」發起討論，分析從李嘉誠的投資節奏可以看出，香港乃至大陸的投資環境已然發生變化，對資金的吸引力不斷下降。
香港《環球經濟電訊社》指稱，李嘉誠與梁振英不和的傳聞繼續發酵。此外，李嘉誠與中共政界高官的關係正出現微妙的變化。
文章還引述報導說，李嘉誠與江澤民家族通過現任中共副總理張高麗的擔保建立了「特殊聯繫」，然而，2007年，大陸多家媒體卻高調批評和記黃埔在北京開發的大型樓盤「逸翠園」爛尾樓項目，令李嘉誠聲譽嚴重受損。另有消息說，江下臺後，李嘉誠與中共關係逐漸疏離。
採訪編輯/秦雪 後製/李智遠
Pulling out Capital from China, Li Ka-Shing’s Signal
Over the last month, Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing’s
property companies have declared to
sell properties in mainland China.
The list includes the PARKnSHOP supermarket chain,
Shanghai’s Oriental Financial Center building,
and Guangzhou’s Metropolitan Plaza with its parking lot.
The assets are worth about 41 Billion Hong Kong dollars.
Economists comment that China is on
the brink of economic collapse.
Meanwhile, the U.S. manufacturing sector is reviving.
That is, Li Ka-shing is making a wise move for himself.
After the sale of the PARKnSHOP chain, Li Ka-shing’s
Cheung Kong (Holdings) made another sale offer.
It was the 35-story Oriental Financial Center building,
located in Shanghai, priced at 6 Billion yuan.
Cheung Kong has held a 6-year ownership of the building,
and said that they have been ready to do business.
Hutchison Whampoa has announced intended sale of
Guangzhou properties at about 2.6 Billion yuan.
The sales include a 50% stake,
Metropolitan Plaza Square, its parking lots, and
a seniors activity center.
Feng Xingyuan is deputy director at Unirule Institute
of Economics in Beijing.
He thinks that Li Ka-shing’s exiting is associated with
the current overall situation.
Feng Xingyuan:Now European housing prices are relatively low.
Whilst the manufacturing outlook in the USA is very good.
The U.S. may once again take the lead in
global economic growth.
China’s role is comparatively weak in this aspect.
Also, China may face some serious economic issues,
as well as some financial troubles.
An example is its high level of local government debt.
Feng Xingyuan adds that a great number of local
non-performing assets have been concealed
by paying old bank loans with new loans.
In some regions, local authorities have no money
to pay construction teams.
Feng believes that any big fluctuation of China’s economy
will trigger a housing market collapse.
Now, Wenzhou’s housing prices have tumbled 60%,
and in Erdos, the prices have dropped 75%.
All these are a result of economic deterioration, he says.
Recently, a land plot in Beijing was sold
for 73,000 yuan per square meters.
Cheung Kong (Holdings) did not show up for the auction.
Prior to this, Cheung Kong had not attended
two auctions in Shanghai and Hangzhou.
William Kwok Tsz-wai, director of Cheung Kong,
once responded to a real estate project in Shanghai.
He said that it is a project with long-term return
and high risk.
The project’s going public needs capital injection
of over 40 Billion yuan.
On September 4, China’s property tycoon, Wang Shi,
posted on his micro-blog.
Wang states: Shrewd Mr. Li Ka-shing is selling
his properties in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai.
This is a signal, and pay heed.
Zheng Zhiyao, China’s investment consultant, comments.
Li Ka-shing’s pulling out capital from the mainland
indicates his looking down on China’s economic
model and outlook.
Zheng Zhiyao: His liquidity moves suggests that
he has foreseen the upcoming risk.
The most solid bubble will inevitably burst.
I’d say we’re on the verge of a financial crisis,
just like standing beside a volcano or a cliff.
There exists huge excess capacity,
and massive local government debt .
As a leading businessman, Li Ka-shing has a sharp
nose for politics and economy.
After the CCP’s 1989 Massacre, many foreign businesses
retreated from China.
Whilst Li Ka-shing, with heavy investment, became
the largest Hong Kong investor in mainland China.
On September 3, Jrj.com.cn website released
its feature report.
It was titled “why does richest man Li Ka-shing
change his mind?”
The articles say that Li’s investment paces indicate
that investment attraction in Hong Kong and
in mainland China have declined.
Hong Kong Global Economy Dispatch Agency reports
that rumors have continued, which is about enmity
between Li Ka-shing and Leung Chun Ying.
Besides, Li Ka-shing’s relationship with the Chinese
Communist Party(CCP)’s top level has subtly changed.
The report quotes sources, saying that under
the guarantees of Zhang Gaoli, the CCP Vice Premier,
Li Ka-shing has set up a “special connection" with
the Jiang Zemin family.
In 2007, China’s media launched a wave of attacks
against an unfinished building project in Beijing,
developed by Li Ka-shing’s Hutchison Whampoa.
Li Ka-shing’s reputation was thus severely damaged.
Media reported that after Jiang Zemin’s retirement,
Li Ka-shing was gradually alienated from the CCP.
