【新唐人2013年08月23日訊】中國大陸山東省財政廳最近宣稱，將於23號招標發行總額112億元人民幣地方債券。目前，大陸僅4地公布的自行發債規模就將近500億元，發債形式和發債規模均有所突破。不過，隨著政府性巨額債務的明朗化，誰來承擔債務風險成了民眾關心的問題。請看報導。
這次山東地方債分為5年期和7年期兩個固定息品種，計劃發行金額均為56億元﹔8月23號招標，26號開始發行並計息。
另外根據相關公告，新試點自行發債的江蘇省今年發債規模也達到153億元。廣東省今年地方政府債券發行額度為121億元(不含深圳)，相對於去年的86億元同比大幅上升40.7%。此外，上海市今年的發行規模為112億元。
《每日經濟新聞》記者表示，僅查詢到上述4個地區公布的自行發債的規模就已經達到了498億元，遠高於去年298億元。
不過，近年來中共地方政府性債務的快速增長引發了社會各界的廣泛關注。
中共國家審計署此前對36個地方政府，自2011年以來的政府性債務審計結果顯示，截至2012年底，36個地方政府的政府性債務餘額為38475.81億元。今年5月，中共審計署副審計長董大勝估計，地方政府總債務規模在15到18萬億元；而中共前財政部部長項懷誠提出，地方負債估計超過20萬億元；國外有專家給出了超過40萬億的驚人數字。如果按照巴克萊資本的測算，最多可能達到50萬億元。
據《理財週報》記者統計，大陸「百強縣」中至今已有71個縣市通過融資平臺發行債券，共發行138只債券，融資總計1483.8億元，再加上信託融資總債務1708.85億元。
北京天則經濟研究所副所長馮興元：「總體上全國各地一樣，尤其是借新還舊比較嚴重。像2010年江蘇省的負債總額，已經佔了地方政府財政收入的12倍，很高的。」
據公開資料顯示，現在很多地方政府債務已進入集中兌付期，而一些地方政府的融資平臺的債務。遠遠超過了它們的財政土地收入的擔保能力，如果繼續舉債，風險將變得越來越大。
但是，地方政府的投資計劃卻非常驚人。
去年7月，湖南省長沙市對外宣佈，將投資8292億元用來搞建設和產業專案；同年8月，貴州省推出3萬億的刺激計劃。但是，貴州省2011年財政總收入才是1330億元，而長沙市2011年的地方財政收入也只有668.11億元。
經濟專欄作家段紹譯指出，這是地方政府花錢不受老百姓監督和沒有相關法律約束的結果。
經濟學者北京師範大學MBA導師段紹譯：「每一個政府官員他都希望花更多的錢，主要是這個原因，並且每一屆政府欠了債不需要自己還，可以把債務留給下一屆政府。」
北京天則經濟研究所副所長馮興元表示，地方政府週期性的更替，使他們有機會對一些投資企業、施工隊的債務賴帳不還。但目前地方政府還可以靠銀行的理財信託資金來融資，其他管道就都很困難了。
不過，段興元透露，基於目前的經濟狀況，中共當局準備啟動新一輪的4萬億投資計劃來刺激經濟發展。
著名經濟學家郎咸平近日撰文指出，2008年「四萬億投資」計劃的後果是讓鄂爾多斯等「鬼城」拔地而起，地方政府負債大增。到去年年底，4萬億到期的債務只還了1萬億，各商業銀行不得不同意地方政府對剩下的3萬億推遲還款。
段紹譯：「在中國，只要共產黨領導，地方政府破產是很難的，因為國家可以發行鈔票，稀釋老百姓手中的貨幣值，割本利來還貸。」
段紹譯進一步指出，蒸發老百姓手中貨幣的本質就是搶錢，這是強盜行為。這不僅會造成老百姓對政府的不信任，也會產生經濟泡沫。
採訪/陳漢 編輯宋風 後製/鍾元
Who Is At Risk? Four Local Chinese Governments Release 50 Billion Bonds
The Department of Finance in Shandong Province stated
11.2 billion Yuan of local bonds will be issued on August 23.
Currently, the published total of self-issued bonds
from only four provinces have reached 50 billion Yuan.
The form and scale of these bonds is record breaking.
However, along with huge government debts, the public
are concerned about who will bear the risk for the bonds.
Local bonds in Shandong Province are divided
into 5-year and 7-year fixed-rate varieties,
with a planed amount of 5.6 billion Yuan.
August 23 will see tenders released, and on the
26, it will start issuing interest bearing bonds.
In addition, according to the information, a
new pilot this year for self-issued bonds in
Jiangsu Province has issued 15.3 billion Yuan.
The amount of Guangdong Province local government
bonds this year is 12.1 billion Yuan (excluding Shenzhen).
This increased significantly by
40.7% compared with last year.
The amount for Shanghai is 11.2 billion Yuan.
reports that, only these four
provinces have self-issued bonds of 49.8 billion Yuan.
This is much higher than 29.8 billion Yuan last year.
However, the recent rapid growth in the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP) local government bonds’ has gathered attention.
The CCP National Audit Office (NAO)’s audit gives
details of 36 local governments’ debt since 2011.
It indicates that up until the end of 2012, the debt for these
36 local governments amounted to 3.85 trillion Yuan.
In May this year, the CCP NAO Vice General Auditor
Dong Dasheng estimated that, local governments’
total debt will be around 15 to 18 trillion Yuan.
The former CCP Finance Minister Xiang Huaicheng said
local debt is estimated to be more than 20 trillion Yuan.
Foreign experts have given a number of over 40 trillion Yuan.
If according to Barclays Capital estimates,
it may have reached up to 50 trillion Yuan.
reports that among China’s “Hundred
Counties", 71 issue bonds through a financing platform.
In total, there were 138 bonds financing 148.38 billion Yuan.
In addition, there was a total of 170.88 billion trust financing.
Feng Xiangyuan, Deputy Director of Beijing Tianze Institute
of Economics: “In general throughout the country,
borrowing for repaying is very severe.
For example, in 2010, Jiangsu Province’s total debt was
12 times the local government revenue, which is very high."
According to public information, many local
governments have entered a debt payment period.
Some local governments’ debts from the
financing platform is much higher than the
guarantee level of their finance land revenue.
If they continue to borrow, the risk
will become greater and greater.
However, local governments’ investment
plans are very unbelievable.
Last July, Changsha in Hunan announced that 829.2 billion
Yuan will be invested in construction and industrial projects.
Last August, Guizhou Province launched a 3 trillion
Yuan stimulus plan, but in 2011, their yearly fiscal
revenue was only 133 billion Yuan.
Changsha City’s local annual fiscal
revenue is only 66.8 billion Yuan.
Duan Shaoyi, an economics expert, said that this is the
result of local governments’ spending money without
public supervision, and lacking relevant legal binding.
Duan Shaoyi: “Every government
official wishes to spend more money.
Besides, the debt from one government
can be passed to the next government."
Feng Xiangyuan points out that the periodical change of
local governments offers the opportunities to delay debts
of some investment enterprises or construction teams.
Now the local governments can still rely on
the bank’s financial trust funds for finance,
while other channels are very difficult to reach.
However, Duan Xingyuan thinks that, based on the current
economic situation, the CCP authority plans to use 4 trillion
Yuan of investments to stimulate economic development.
Well-known economist Lang Xianping
recently commented in an article.
In 2008, the “Four Trillion Investments"
created many “Ghost Towns", such as Ordos.
It created a dramatic increase in local governments’ debts.
At the end of last year, only 1 trillion
was repaid out the 4 trillion Yuan.
The commercial banks had to agree on the local
governments’ delay in repaying the other 3 trillion Yuan.
Duan Shaoyi: “In China, as long as the CCP governs,
local governments cannot become easily bankrupt.
This because the state can issue bank notes, dilute the
Value of currency, and cut interest to repay the debts."
Duan Shaoyi further explains that to evaporate people’s
money is basically stealing money, which is banditry.
This makes the people distrust the government,
and will generate an economic bubble.
