【新唐人2013年07月25日訊】中國金融市場大鬧錢荒後，最近中共推出的全面放開金融機構貸款利率管制，很受各界關注，民眾甚至認為中共會實行金融改革，利率市場化了，甚至有人奢望中共往撤銷外匯管制邁進，不過更多專家認為，這是一種假象，因為中共當局對存款利率的管制並沒有放開。專家指出，放開貸款利率管制，是中共為了資助一些瀕臨倒閉的國營企業和地方政府，以及延緩經濟困局的舉措。
雖然中共央行宣佈取消實施了長達十年之久的貸款利率下限，但是市場仍感到失望，因為對存款利率的管制依然沒有放鬆。
北京「天則經濟研究所」副所長馮興元希望存款利率也能放開，存款利率放開的話，市場自由競爭會更充分，不過績效不好的銀行可能會增加成本。
北京天則經濟研究所副所長馮興元：「以前實際上也說過放開，金融當局說了一句話，但是實際放開沒有，根本看不出來，當時只有農村社它是2.3上限限制，其他的銀行這些金融業機構，利率都靠的比較近。」
《法國國際廣播電臺》引用專家的評論指出，中國銀行的貸款利率市場化，短期不會對實質利率水平帶來太大變化，因存款利率上限並未開放，顯示金融機構定價能力並沒有受到挑戰，央行這項舉措的象徵意義大於實質。
美國《華爾街日報》撰文揭露中國利率市場化的假象。文章說，與其說允許銀行下調貸款利率是在推進利率市場化，倒不如說是政府在安撫依賴負債的國有企業。負債累累的國有企業面臨的壓力，肯定會因為貸款利率下降而有所緩解。
報導說，中共領導人最近的一些口風暗示政策的重點發生了變化。上週國務院總理李克強表示，要避免經濟的「大起大落」，使經濟運行保持在合理區間；和經濟增長率、就業水平等不滑出「下限」，物價漲幅等不超出「上限」。但報導認為，現在宣告「李克強經濟學」的新時代來臨可能還為時尚早。
旅美經濟學家簡天倫：「利率下限取消，對於一些國有企業，如果在面臨倒閉或者利潤比較差，這樣可以減低一些大的國營企業的成本，再一個，現在中國的經濟在放緩，這樣等於降低一些（成本）來刺激經濟，但是也可能掩蓋了一些大企業效率低。」
旅美經濟學家簡天倫指出，放鬆貸款利率，直接受益的是那些有背景的大型國有企業，和那些能夠擺佈銀行地方支行的地方政府。
簡天倫：「中國現在貸款到處需求很多，不會出現貸款放鬆限制，中小企業收益的情況，也不會太多的改善銀行間的競爭，短期來講誰受益了——大的國營企業，或者是（地方）政府。」
對於銀行來說，歷來都是風險越高貸款利率越高，因此降低貸款利率對於競爭力不強，風險較大的中小企業來說，不會帶來好處。他們還是只能從影子銀行或地下錢莊借高利貸來維持生計。
美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田：「國有銀行因為它的壟斷地位，對中小企業，私有企業一直有歧視性的政策，中小企業，不管貸款利率下限取消也好，不取消也好，他們都是很難從國有銀行拿到貸款的，唯有真正讓金融市場，自由化，市場化，才能使中小企業得到錢，解決錢荒的問題。」
雖然央行取消了貸款利率下限，但是銀行也不會從放開利率中受益。
《華爾街日報》認為，即使不降低貸款利率，銀行也照樣有生意，影子銀行也不會因此而受到影響，最近影子銀行業務呈爆炸性增長，表明銀行仍有機會以更高的利率向新的借款人貸款。中共當局應該吸取的教訓是，只要有規定，市場就會千方百計的去繞開規定。
這時候，投資者們應該警惕的，或許是那些對中國金融行業的壓制可能帶來的新隱患，如：企業破產、政府救助，也可能是利率的再一次飆升等。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/王明宇
Who Will Benefit From Liberation of Loan Interest Rates in China?
The Chinese financial market has
been in great shortage of money.
Recently, the Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) launched a full liberalization of loan
interest rates for financial institution regulation.
This has gathered international attention.
Some observers think that the CCP will implement
financial reform, with loan interest rates marketized.
Some expect the CCP to withdraw
foreign currency control in the future.
Other experts believe this is an illusion,
because the Chinese authorities did
not relinquish control on deposit rates.
Experts highlight that liberalization of loan interest
rate controls will finance the nearly bankrupt
state-owned enterprises and local governments.
It will slow down economic difficulties.
The CCP central bank announced cancellation
of decade-long lower limit loan interest rates.
However, the market is still disappointed, as
the deposit rate control is still not relinquished.
Feng Xingyuan, Deputy Director of Beijing Tianze Institute of
Economics, hopes deposit rate control can be relinquished.
If so, free market competition will be more comprehensive,
but the poor performance banks may increase their costs.
Feng Xingyuan: “It has actually been
said before that it would be liberalized.
The financial authorities said this,
but it was actually not liberalized.
There were no actions.
It was a 2.3 upper limit in rural communities,
and other banks and financial institutions
interest rates are relatively close to each other."
Radio France Internationale quoted experts commentaries.
The marketization of Chinese banks’ loan interest rates
will not change the real interest rates in the short term.
This is because the deposit interest rate cap is not liberated.
This showing the ability of financial institutions
to determine pricing has not been challenged.
This initiative of the central bank
is more symbolic than substantive.
The Wall Street Journal discussed the
illusion of market interest rates in China.
It said that allowing banks to lower loan interest
rates is to appease state-owned enterprises,
rather than promote interest rate marketization.
These enterprises are dependent on loans,
Pressure on heavily debt ridden state-owned enterprises
will certainly be eased by lowering loan interest rates.
It has been reported that some Chinese leaders
recently hinted their policy priorities have changed.
Premier Li Keqiang spoke last week about
avoiding economic ups and downs, and to
maintain the economy at a reasonable level.
This will involve economic growth, and to ensure
employment levels will not drop below the lower limit,
and for price increases to not exceed upper limits.
However, reports said that it was too early to
announce a new era of Li Keqiang economics.
Jian Tianlun, US-based economist:"Loan interest rates
lower limit cancellation will reduce the costs for some state-owned enterprises
who are facing bankruptcy or making little profit.
It will reduce some costs, and stimulate the economy,
but will also cover up inefficiencies in large enterprises."
Jian Tianlun highlights that liberating loan interest rates
will directly benefit those large state-owned enterprises.
It will also benefit the local governments,
which can manipulate local bank branches.
Jian Tianlun: “China now has much demand for loans.
SME revenue will not improve by liberating loan interest
limits, nor will it ease competition among banks.
In the short term, who will benefit from this? It is large
state-owned enterprises, or the (local) governments."
For banks, the higher the risk,
the higher the loan interest rates.
Reducing loan interest rates will not bring benefits
for the less competitive and more risky SME’s.
They can still get usury loans from the shadow banks,
or illegal private banks, to maintain their livelihoods.
Professor Xie Tian, School of Business,
University of South Carolina- Aiken:
“Because of the monopoly of state-owned banks, it has
discriminatory polices towards SMEs and private companies.
No matter whether the lower limit of loan interest
rates are cancelled or not, they all find it very
difficult to get loans from state-owned banks.
Only if the finance is marketized, can SMEs get
money to solve their problems of shortage of money."
Although the central bank canceled lower limits
on loan interest rates, banks will not benefit
from the interest rate liberalization either.
The Wall Street Journal believes that if the banks don’t
lower loan interest rates, they will still have business.
Shadow banks will not be affected either.
Recently the explosive growth of shadow banking
showed that banks still have a chance to lend
money at a higher interest rate to new borrowers.
The Chinese authorities should draw a lesson.
As long as there are provisions, the market
will do everything possible to circumvent them.
At this time, investors should be wary of the new risks,
because of the suppression of China’s financial industry.
This includes corporate bankruptcies,
as well as government bailouts.
This may once again cause interest rates to soar.
