【新唐人2013年07月13日訊】關於重慶市委書記薄熙來案將開庭的消息傳得沸沸揚揚。有媒體爆料說，薄熙來案件，將於七、八月在山東濟南中級人民法院開庭，而不是早前所傳的成都中院。專家分析說，處理薄熙來案件牽扯到三個政治考量，令當局進退維谷。
去年底，薄熙來被北京市高檢正式批捕，批捕的罪名不得而知。一般來說，中共高官落馬後，會安排喉舌媒體《新華社》發稿，但薄案並未如此。
《法國國際廣播電臺》（RFI）認為，或者是因為薄熙來最後被起訴的罪名，仍未最後被各派系所議定有關。
《法廣》上海記者引述薄熙來案的知情者消息說，薄熙來案很快將在山東濟南開庭審理。一個月前，案件已經移交給山東檢方，山東方面已經派員進京閱卷，為庭審做準備。
前國務院農村發展研究中心研究員姚監復：「我覺得從時間上，應該是在三中全會之前開，如果三中全會不確認，這個事情就得拖到四中全會了。那樣的話，是不是太久了。把這個事情應該有一個了斷。」
報導說，薄熙來被正式刑拘後，一直被羈押在秦城監獄，薄目前人還在北京，據說可能在開庭前才押解山東。
前中央黨校學習時報副編審鄧聿文：「我覺得是有可能，因為這個案子，它可能趁劉志軍這個案件趁熱打鐵，否則放的時間越長，這個事情解決起來越麻煩。」
前「中央黨校」《學習時報》副編審鄧聿文估計，薄熙來很可能像劉志軍那樣被判死緩。但是知情者透露，目前確定薄熙來的罪名主要是受賄罪，就是大連富商徐明為薄熙來兒子薄瓜瓜留學提供的各種費用開銷六、七百萬元。
鄧聿文：「如果說僅僅是六七百萬，那死緩都判不了，無期徒刑都判不了，那可能就是一個有期徒刑。當然這跟老百姓的認知相差太離譜了。因為以前傳說有各種說法，至少不會是六百多萬。這樣的官員貪污六百多萬，一個小小的官員也上千萬、上億了。」
前國務院農村發展研究中心研究員姚監復指出，當局是把薄熙來這個政治案作為經濟案來處理。
姚監復：「從他把政治犯當經濟犯處理就準備從輕處理。因為按溫家寶的講話是把他當成文革式的路線問題，如果是那個問題的話，那就是政治犯的問題。」
鄧聿文認為，當局處理薄熙來牽扯到三個政治考量。
鄧聿文：「當然首先第一個最大的可能是共產黨的形象，這是最大的一個考量的問題。金額太大，對共產黨的形象不好，金額太少，民眾那裏過不了關。第二個考量就是太子黨，元老，對太子黨利益的觸動，他必須要考量。如果把薄熙來判的太狠，判死刑，那你無法向太子黨，向中共元老交代。如果判的太輕的話，那對民眾也無法交代。另外他還有對所謂政敵的考量。政敵是不是抓住把柄？」
報導說，如果薄熙來認罪，則薄瓜瓜從徐明那裏獲得的金錢資助，罪責不必由薄瓜瓜承擔，反之，薄瓜瓜可能面臨司法追訴，因此，這可能是將來薄熙來認罪配合的關鍵。
報導還說，薄熙來在家中的隔離審查持續了不到一個多月。 4月9號，薄熙來被送往中南海，政治局常委、中紀委書記賀國強與他正式談話。
第二天，北京通過官方媒體宣佈，停止薄熙來擔任的中央政治局委員、中央委員職務，由中紀委對他立案調查。隨後，薄熙來開始了近半年的「雙規」。去年9月28號，官方已宣佈，開除薄熙來的黨籍和公職。
當時官媒還發佈通告列舉薄熙來幾大罪狀，包括﹕薄熙來在王立軍事件和薄谷開來故意殺人案件中濫用職權，犯有嚴重錯誤、負有重大責任。另外還有﹕利用職權為他人謀利，直接和透過家人收受他人巨額賄賂﹔與多名女性發生或保持不正當性關係﹔違反組織人事紀律，用人失察失誤，造成嚴重後果。此外，還發現薄熙來其他涉嫌犯罪問題線索等。
採訪編輯/秦雪 後製/肖顏
Three Considerations on Bo Xilai Case
Bo Xilai, former Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Secretary of Chonqing will be put on trial in Jinan
Intermediate Court in Shandong Province this July
or August, but not Chengdu Intermediate Court.
Experts analyzed that it involves three
political considerations in the Bo Xilai case,
which gave the Chinese authorities a dilemma.
At the end of 2012, Bo Xilai was formally arrested
by the Beijing Procuratorate, with unknown charges.
Usually, when CCP officials were arrested, state
media Xinhua News Agency would release news.
This did not happen for the Bo case.
Radio France Internationale (RFI) believe that this
might be because the charges brought against
Bo Xilai are yet to be decided by various factions.
The Shanghai correspondent of RFI quoted informants.
Bo Xilai’s case would soon be on
trial in Jinan, Shandong Province.
A month ago, the case was transferred
to the Procuratorate in Shandong.
Personnel had been sent to Beijing to
read about the case, to prepare for the trial.
Yao Jianfu, former researcher of the State
Council Research and Development Center:
“I guess it should be before the third Plenary.
If the third Plenary was not confirmed,
it may be prolonged to fourth Plenary.
In that case, it is too long. So there
should be a conclusion on it.”
It has been reported that after Bo Xilai was officially
detained, he has been kept in Qincheng Prison.
Bo is now still in Beijing. It is said he may
be sent to Shandong when he is put on trial.
Deng Yuwen, former deputy editor
of Central CCP School Study Times:
“I think it is possible. It may take advantage
of the sentence of Liu Zhijun, or else it would
have more trouble when postponed for too long.”
Deputy editor Deng Yuwen estimated that Bo is likely to
be sentenced to death, with a reprieve similar to Liu Zhijun.
Currently, Bo has only been charged with bribery.
Wealthy businessman Xu Ming, in Dalian,
provided Bo Guagua, the son of Bo Xilai
with about 6 million Yuan for overseas study.
Deng Yuwen: “If he is only charged for bribery,
he may even not be sentenced to death, with reprieve.
Nor life imprisonment, but may
be just a fixed-term imprisonment.
It is certainly too far from what the people had known.
There are many discussions about this now, and it could not
just involve 6 million Yuan in bribery for this level of official.
Even for a low-level official, he could have
taken tens of millions of Yuan in bribery.”
Yao Jianfu, former researcher of the State Council Research
and Development Center, pointed out that the political case
of Bo Xilai is dealt with as an economic case by the regime.
Yao Jianfu: “By treating him as an economic criminal
instead of a political criminal, the CCP is ready to be lenient.
According to Wen Jiabao’s speech, Wen had taken
Bo as the Cultural Revolution-style routing issue.
If it is the problem, he should be a political prisoner.”
Deng Yuwen believes that the authorities have three
political considerations in dealing with Bo Xilai.
Deng Yuwen: “Firstly, it impacts the image of the CCP,
which is one of the biggest issues to consider.
If the amount of bribery involved was too large, it is bad for
the image of CCP; but if too small, the people won’t believe it.
The second consideration is the princelings and CCP
veterans, so it has to consider the interests of princelings.
If Bo was sentenced to death, it cannot
reassure princelings or the veterans of CCP.
If Bo was sentenced too lightly, it cannot assure the people.
In addition, there is consideration of the so-called
political opponents. It may leave a handle.”
It is reported that if Bo Xilai pleaded guilty for
funds provided to Bo Guagua by Xu Ming, it
would be so Bo Guagua could be without guilt.
On the contrary, Bo Guagua may face judicial prosecution.
Rhis may be the key for Bo Xilai’s
guilty plea in the future.
The report also said Bo’s home quarantine
examination lasted less than a month.
Bo was sent to Zhongnanhai on April 9.
He Guoqiang, a Politburo Standing Committee
member and Secretary of the Central Discipline
Inspection Commission, had official talks with him.
The next day, Beijing announced through official
state media that Bo would be dismissed from
his position as a member of the Politburo.
The Central Committee, and the Central Discipline
Inspection Commission performed investigation against him.
Subsequently, Bo had nearly six
months of “double regulations.”
On September 28 2012, it was officially announced that
Bo Xilai was dismissed from the CCP, and public office.
Official state media subsequently
cited Bo Xilai several counts.
This includes abuse of power of Bo Xilai in the case
of intentional homicide by Wang Lijun and Gu Kailai;
serious mistakes and heavy responsibilities; making
money for others with the use of his authority;
accepting huge bribes directly, and through his family;
having improper sexual relations with a number of women;
violating organizational and personnel discipline;
misusing officials, which resulted in serious consequences.
It also found other indicators of Bo’s crimes.
