【新唐人2013年05月01日訊】日前，中共喉舌《人民日報》發文，疾呼國際社會「唱空」中國是「偏見」，中國的債務問題被誇大了。不過國內外專家認為，中國的債務問題，除了中共當局已經公布的之外，還有更多看不見的隱形債務，同時，中國的危機也遠遠不止經濟方面，其他如社會危機，生存環境全面破壞等更深層的問題才是根本。
北京《國情內參》首席研究員鞏勝利：「中國的空，來自中國的本身，中國有幾個問題都是比較嚴峻的，中國的貨幣投放量到3月份，已經超過百萬（億）之巨，成為全球之最，是美國的1.5倍，美國的產值是14萬億美元，而中國的產出大概只有6萬億美元左右，產出效率這麼低，中國的房地產是中國的第一大產業。」
北京《國情內參》期刊首席研究員鞏勝利還指出，中國的國有企業、銀行資本和地方債務的問題都非常嚴重，而中國的人治體制還造成了很多隱形債務，地方債隱型的黑洞就像地雷陣隨時都可能引爆。
鞏勝利：「特別是國有資本，花的錢是國家的，沒有任何人來負責任，前一屆花了拍拍屁股走了，後一屆接著花，這樣的黑洞是很嚇人的。」
鞏勝利表示，西方國家的債務透明度高，不只是兩院明白，民眾也都盯著。而美國「南卡羅萊納大學」艾肯商學院教授謝田認為，中國的債務問題還不是最大的問題。
美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田：「中國的問題還不在於簡簡單單的一個負債率過高的問題，還體現在通貨膨脹的問題、腐敗的問題和經濟下滑，出口減低，民怨上升，中國人的基本的生存環境完全被破壞掉，這樣一個全社會的、經濟、政治全面的危機，這個才是最大的危機。」
報導還說，唱空中國的一方只看到中國地方政府的巨額負債，但沒有看到這些負債是源於投資，投資一方面形成了大量資產，另一方面可以取得巨大的現金流量。
謝田：「這個基本上是站不住腳的，首先形成的大量的資產是公共設施基礎建設投資，這些資產很多是浪費，並不是真正的資產，優良的資產，比如花了很多錢建高鐵，它那個票價太高沒有人坐，它的現金流量和收回量也不夠，更關鍵的一點，很多投資被中共的官員層層貪污。」
中共喉舌媒體文章認為，中國地方政府的負債，不同於歐洲國家那樣——超前消費。
謝田指出，西方政府的債務，很多是花在養老金、退休金、勞保等公共支出上，和中共被貪官侵吞及花在面子工程上有根本的區別。
謝田：「首先如果中共政府對自己有信心的話，他根本不需要為唱空的人去擔心，因為它如果經濟真的沒問題，可以很容易地走過來的話，那那些唱空的人會輸得一踏糊塗，中共政府就是沒有信心才開始出來辯解。」
文章聲稱，不僅中國，在整個東亞特別是東北亞，公司部門高負債率都是經濟體發展的共同顯著特徵。
鞏勝利：「美國和歐洲、包括日本，都是寬鬆貨幣發展起來的，中國這個寬鬆貨幣一放就亂，一亂就收，一收就死，中國現在的體制政策基本上還是人治，包括銀行的債務，包括國債，特別是地方債。」
鞏勝利認為，如今中國的主要產業——房地產，既不是商品也不是「市場」，中國的房地產問題，比2008年引發全球金融海嘯的「房地美、房利美」更危險。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/李智遠
Experts: “China is Broke” Claim, is Not Groundless
A few days ago, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
mouthpiece People’s Daily published an article,
stating that the international community’s
“China is Broke” claim is prejudicial, and that China’s debt problems have been exaggerated.
However, experts in and outside of China estimate,
in addition to the debts the CCP have announced, China has more invisible debts.
Moreover, China’s crisis goes far beyond economic issues.
Deeper issues such as social meltdown and overall
living environmental destruction are fundamental.
People’s Daily wrote that the international capital market
set off a wave of rumors that China is Bankrupt.
Large investment banks, well-known investment
businesses and credit rating agencies all participated.
Since mid-March, JP Morgan released the first report
proposing a reduction of Chinese stock.
Goldman Sachs, UBS and a number of investment banks
all stated that the A Stock Market is going broke.
In April, international rating agency Fitch and Moody’s
downgraded China’s sovereign credit rating.
The article thinks these are all prejudices.
Beijing’s Internal Reference chief researcher Gong Shengli:
“China’s being empty bankrupt is caused by China. There are several severe issues.
The amount of money invested in China in March
surpassed a hundred trillion yuan, the highest in the world.
It is 1.5 times of the U.S.
The output value of the U.S. is $14 trillion.
China’s output value is probably only about $6 trillion.
So output efficiency is very low. Real estate is China’s largest industry.”
Gong Shengli also pointed out that
there are seriously Capital and Debt issues in
China’s state-owned enterprises and banks.
China’s governmental system also caused lots of
hidden debt. Local debt is like a minefield that could explode at any time.
Gong Shengli: “In particular for state-owned capital,
the money spent belongs to the nation. But no one is accountable.
The former leaders spent the money and left.
This kind of black hole is very scary.”
Gong Shengli stated that debt is transparent in
western countries, not only monitored by Congress, but also by the public.
Professor Xie Tian of University of South Carolina
Aiken School of Business thinks that debt is not China’s biggest problem.
Xie Tian: “China’s problem is not only the high debt ratio.
It is reflected in inflation, corruption, economic downturn,
exports reduction, the rise of people’s grievances, and
complete destruction of Chinese people’s living environment.
The greatest crisis is the comprehensive social,
economic, and political crisis.”
The report also states that those making the “China is Bust”
claim only see local Chinese government’s debt,
but did not realize that the debt is caused
by large scale investment.
Investment will result in a large amount of asset
development as well as a large amount of cash returns.
Xie Tian: “This is groundless. The so called
assets are investments in public facilities.
Many of these assets are wasteful,
or not good economic asset.
For example, lots of money was spent on building the
high-speed rail, but no one takes it due to its high fare.
Its cash flow and returns are insufficient.
A more critical issue is that a lot of investment money
was creamed off by corrupt CCP officials.”
The article by the CCP mouthpiece states that
debts of China’s local governments are different
from excessive consumption of Europe and U.S.
Xie Tian points out the western government debt
is mainly spent on the public,
such as social security, pension, and labor protection.
It is fundamentally different from debt caused by
corruption and face-saving projects.
Xie Tian: “If the CCP government is confident about itself,
it does not need to worry about what others say.
Because, if its economy really has no problems, soon
those who made the “China is Bankrupt” claim will lose.
The CCP argues about because it is not confident.”
The article states that not only China, but in East Asia,
especially Northeast Asia, the high debt ratio of companies
are common features of economic development.
Gong Shengli: “U.S., Europe, including Japan
all developed on loose monetary policy.
If China adopted a loose monetary policy, it would
result in chaos, followed by tight control and collapse.
China is still under the system of rule by man, including
bank debt, government bonds and local government debt.”
Gong Shengli thinks China’s current key business –
real estate is neither a product nor a market.
China’s real estate market is more dangerous than
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the 2008 financial crisis.
