【新唐人2013年03月25日訊】日前，有國際知名投行機構發佈報告，指稱中國正在顯現金融危機前的三個特徵，和之前西歐、日本和美國在爆發金融危機前，所展現的徵兆如出一轍。這一危機將會導致財富由窮人向富人轉移，擴大貧富差距。一起來聽聽經濟學家的分析。
上週末，國際知名投行「野村證券」發佈研究報告說，中國爆發金融危機的特徵正在顯現。野村經濟學家張智威和陳家瑤表示，「槓桿化快速升高」、「潛在增速下滑」和「房價上升」，是中國經濟正在顯現的三個警燈，也是西歐、日本和美國在爆發金融危機前所展現的特徵。
報告中引用國際上著名的「5-30規則」分析指出，中國的所謂「槓桿率」已經達到1978年有記錄以來的最高水平，預示著金融風險已經降臨。同時，中國出口份額下降，顯示潛在增長率放緩。而快速的房價上漲則是最後的警告信號。
報告聲稱，目前地方政府融資平臺、房地產開發商、信託公司和信用擔保公司等機構，是這次潛在金融危機的重點雷區。由於這些機構之間的依存度很高，而且以房地產市場為中心環節，所以一旦房地產降溫，連鎖反應將導致危機隨即爆發。
中國經濟學家茅於軾在接受《德國之聲》採訪時表示，北京當局目前不能消化掉危機因素，尤其是房地產泡沫已經出現。但這個巨大的泡沫是中共政府和金融企業不願意看到的，因此都在努力使它不破滅。中國金融危機的後果，就是中共出賣國有資產。
不過，美國「南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院」教授謝田則認為，當局不大可能以出賣國有資產，來應付金融危機。
美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授 謝田：「在中共的體制之下，這些國有銀行和國有企業，是中共權貴用來掠取人民財產財富的一個最好的機器。中共不會輕易放棄這些國有資產，國有企業或銀行的控制權。
謝田估計，中共會繼續用發行大量鈔票的方法來應對危機。
謝田：「可能繼續發行鈔票，繼續製造通貨膨脹。很可能已經把大面額的鈔票早已經暗地準備好了。以繼續犧牲中國老百姓的財富、利益的方式，來維持讓國有銀行不崩潰。
報告還說，中共當局一方面遏制銀行業風險，一方面容忍所謂的「影子銀行」繁榮，以幫助地方政府和房地產開發商解決資金困難。一旦房地產市場出現下調趨勢，就會導致「影子銀行」體系風險爆發。
而中國經濟學家郎咸平，在近期舉辦的「2013年中國（龍岩）區域經濟發展高峰論壇」上，也作出類似的論斷，他說：「中國的金融危機開始爆發，而銀行危機，包括以民間借貸為主的影子銀行危機已經正式爆發。」
中國金融智庫研究員鞏勝利則認為，中國的銀行業有它的特殊性，所以現在論斷銀行危機已經全面爆發還有待推敲。
中國金融智庫研究員鞏勝利：「中國的銀行業沒有放開，不像日本、美國和歐洲。銀行的用錢、投資，政府是管制起來的。他基本上實行的是政府管制下的這種運作，所以他和西方特別是發達國家的那些銀行自主權那麼大、那麼多，他存在很大的差異。」
不過，鞏勝利也表示，中國經濟照這種「國有壟斷」的模式繼續走下去，危險性無疑將會越來越明顯。
野村的報告最後還指出，「影子銀行」產品只向富人開放，所以只有富人才有機會從政府提供的隱形擔保中獲益。當企業遭遇困境，政府為他們兜底時，付出代價的則是全體人民。「影子銀行」的繁榮和道德風險的加劇，最終將導致財富由窮人向富人的轉移。
採訪/劉惠 編輯/李明飛 後製/葛雷
Nomura: China Showing Signs of Approaching Financial Crisis
Recently, a global investment bank released a report.
The report says that China is displaying three
symptoms that Western Europe, Japan and the
US showed before the outbreak of financial crisis.
This crisis will lead to a shift of assets from the poor to
the rich, enlarging the gap between the rich and the poor.
Let’s take a look at the experts’ analysis.
Last weekend, Japan’s investment bank Nomura published
a report, saying China’s financial crisis signs are showing.
Nomura’s economists Zhang Zhiwei and
Chen Jiayao said that three signs of financial
crisis are a sharp rise of leverage, a slowdown
in economic growth and elevated house prices.
These signs are flashing over the Chinese economy.
This is the same as Western Europe, Japan and
the US, before their financial crisis took place.
The report used the “5-30 rule”, analyzing
that China’s so-called “leverage ratio” has
reached it’s highest level since 1978.
This indicates that China’s financial crisis is on its way.
Meanwhile, export shares are declining,
showing the growth rate is slowing down.
However, a rapid rise in house
prices is the last warning sign.
The report said that local government
financing vehicles, property developers, trust
and insurance companies could be badly hit.
These organs highly rely on each other.
They focus on property markets, when house prices drop,
the chain reaction will instantly cause the crisis to break out.
Chinese economist Mao Yushi spoke to Deutsche Welle.
The central government couldn’t remove these crises
factors, especially the real estate bubble is occurring.
The bubble is huge, and the Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) and financial companies don’t want it happening.
Thus they are trying to avoid it from bursting.
The outcome of the Chinese financial crisis
is that the CCP sells state-owned assets.
Xie Tian, a Professor at the Aiken School of Business
at the University of South Carolina commented.
Xie believes that the CCP would be unlikely to sell
state-owned assets to cope with a financial crisis.
Xie Tian: “Within the CCP system, state-owned
banks and companies are the best machine to be
used by CCP to plunder property from the people.
The CCP won’t easily give up these
state-owned assets, companies or banks.”
Xie predicted that the CCP will continue to issue
large amounts of banknotes to deal with the crisis.
Xie Tian: “The CCP may continue to
issue banknotes and increase inflation.
They may have already prepared
such large banknotes quietly.
They will continue to plunder people’s property and
interests to avoid the collapse of state-owned banks.”
The report also said that on the one hand, the
Chinese regime is trying to curb the banking risk.
On the other hand, it is trying to
tolerate growing “shadow banking”.
This way, it seeks to help local governments and
property developers solve financial difficulties.
Once the house prices decline, it will lead a
“shadow banking” system crisis to break out.
Lang Xianping, a Chinese economist also
made a similar prediction in a recent forum.
Lang said: “China’s financial crisis has started to break out.
The banking crisis, including the shadow-banking crisis,
which is based on private borrowing, has taken place.”
Gong Shengli, China Financial Think Tank researcher
believes that the banking industry in China is unique.
Thus stating that a “banking crisis has
broken out” needs to be scrutinized.
Gong Shengli: “China’s banking industry isn’t independent,
and they aren’t the same as Japan, the U.S. and Europe.
Loans and investments are controlled by the CCP.
Basically, they are operated under government’s control.
In western countries, especially developed countries,
banks can make decisions, thus it is very different.”
Gong also said that if China’s economy continues to
be state-owned, the risks certainly will become obvious.
Nomura’s report points out in the end that
“shadow banking” only serves the rich people.
Thus, only rich people have the opportunity to gain
interests from insurance, provided by the government.
Once the companies face difficulty, the government
will protect them, but ordinary people will suffer.
“Shadow banking” prosperity and increased moral crisis will
eventually cause assets to be shifted from the poor to the rich.
