【新唐人2013年03月09日訊】被經濟學者稱為中國財政「兩大漏斗」之一的中國軍費，一直是各界矚目的焦點。這次中共人大第一天的政府工作報告中公布，今年國防預算支出7406億元人民幣，較去年增長10.7%。而中國龐大的軍費預算始終讓鄰國不安。那麼，未來習近平時代軍費增減將如何發展，我們來聽聽專家怎麼分析。
十多年來，中共的國防預算一直呈二位數成長，因此年年受到鄰國的關注，「中國威脅論」也長期受到議論。去年以來，釣魚島爭端，中共強硬的態度更令輿論注意。
「英國廣播公司(BBC)」引述日本《讀賣日報》的社論指出，中國增加軍費，主要是為了加強東海和南海的軍事能力，對付美國重返亞洲戰略。
北京時政觀察人士華頗：「中國軍費的增與減不會考慮周邊國家的態度，它只能夠更多是在口頭上強調，我們是和平發展，不會稱霸。所做工作也就是這些宣示，實際在軍費上不會有多大讓步。」
幾個月以來，習近平高調視察中共解放軍的陸海空軍。北京時政觀察人士華頗指出，習近平作為軍隊的總司令，他必須在軍隊中樹立自己的權威。
華頗：「因為前蘇聯和東歐的巨變，一個關鍵的因素，就是在關鍵時刻，軍隊都出現了倒戈。所以他要保證自己江山的穩固，必須要在軍隊中樹立絕對的權威，對軍隊起一個絕對的領導，所以在關鍵的時刻，在出大事的時候才能穩住局面。」
另一方面，習近平跑遍了各個軍兵組、海陸空、二炮、武警等單位，並強調軍隊要絕對忠誠、要絕對聽從黨的領導、黨指揮槍的原則；這也凸顯了習近平對軍隊忠誠度的一個擔心。
華頗：「因為，中國現在社會矛盾已經到了激發邊緣了，再次發生『六四』那樣大的事件的機率也越來越高。所以，習近平要確保軍隊關鍵時候能拉的動，聽指揮。所以他軍委的人事上，在十八大上也做出了重大調整。」
今年大陸經濟成長率目標放緩。華頗認為，隨著習近平對軍隊的穩固，中國軍費首先會有進一步的削減。但目前習剛掌握兵權，會考量軍方的情緒，所以軍費增幅還是達到兩位數。
華頗說，習近平對軍隊恩威並施！一方面立威，整肅軍隊的腐敗現象，另一方面施恩，就是軍費的增幅逐步往下調，不願意太刺激軍方。
時事評論家橫河則認為，目前中國的經濟總量大，軍費支出對整個經濟發展的影響並不大。
時事評論家橫河：「更重要的是，中國在多大程度上，當中國危機發生時，需要用軍事力量來轉移危機，這個是很重要的。如果說用軍事力量來轉移政治危機、經濟危機，需要很大的時候，那麼對軍費投入就會增長。我倒不覺得某個人當軍委主席後，會有政策方面大的變動。」
另一方面，橫河指出，共產黨吸引人的本身就是腐敗。因此，要把腐敗真正反掉了，牽涉的是共產黨的存亡，軍隊也是一樣。
橫河：「它怎麼可能有個人的力量能把反腐敗進行下去。當全黨都腐敗時，你反腐敗不是自尋死路嗎﹖要就自己死，要麼整個黨死，做不下去的。作為運動搞一搞是可能的。但不可能有一個真正有效的措施，能夠在現在全面腐敗的情況下，把這個腐敗給挖掉。」
有評論指出，今年6月，軍隊將再度提高薪水。可以預見，習近平仍會沿用過去一貫的「陞官」和「發財」兩大法寶去駕馭軍隊。而未來軍費開支的增幅，也就不可能降下來。
根據美國的統計，中國「實際的」軍費開支，可能是它公布的數字3倍到4倍。
How Will CCP’ Military Spending Change During Xi’s Rule?
China’s military spending, called by economists one of its
two biggest financial sinks, always draws wide attention.
At the Chinese Communist Party’ (CCP) National People’s
Congress meeting now, CCP announced that the military budget in 2013 will be 770.6 billion Yuan, or 10.7% higher.
As CCP’ huge military spending continues to disturb China’s
neighbors, what will the situation be under Xi Jinping’ rule?
In the last decade, CCP’ military spending continues to grow
by a double-digit, drawing China’s neighbors attention.
“China’s Threat Theory” also becomes a long-standing
hot topic for discussion.
Last year, CCP had shown robustness in the dispute over
Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands, drawing further media attention.
BBC report cited Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun’s article,
that CCP’s military increase focuses on the East and South China Sea to cope with the US 『Back to Asia’ strategy.
Hua Po, Beijing political affairs observer:
”When making decisions about military spending,
the CCP won’t take into account the attitudes of
its neighboring countries.
In most cases the CCP only claims that it will develop
peacefully without seeking hegemony.
All its work is no more than making announcements, etc.
But CCP won’t really compromise on its military increase.”
In the recent months, Xi Jinping made high-profile
inspection tour in the CCP’s military forces.
Hua Po remarked that Xi had to establish his authority
in the military as the new commander-in-chief.
Hua Po: ”In the fall of communism in the Soviet Union and
Eastern Europe, the revolt of military at critical moments had become a key factor.
Therefore to protect his position, Xi Jinping has to establish
authority in the military to ensure his absolute leadership.
Only by achieving this can Xi stabilize the situation
at critical moments.”
On the other hand, Xi had visited most military groups
in his inspection tour, including the army, navy, air force, the second artillery, and the armed police, among others.
He stressed that the army had to be absolutely loyal to CCP,
following the principle of “the Party Commands the Gun.”
This clearly shows Xi Jinping’s worries about the army’s loyalty.
Hua Po: ”Right now, the social conflicts in China
have reached a critical level.
The possibility of having another historic event
like the 『June 4t Incident’ also grows higher.
Therefore Xi Jinping wants to make sure that the army
will follow his commands at critical moments.
To achieve this Xi also made important personnel changes
in the Military Commission at the 18th CCP’s Congress.”
China’s economic growth is projected
to drop in the coming year.
Hua thinks CCP’s military budget will experience a significant
slowdown after Xi solidifies his leadership in the military.
Currently Xi needs to take care of the army’s sentiments,
as he just took power.
This is the reason why the military spending
maintains a two-digit growth.
Hua Po remarked that Xi attempts to strike a balance
between justice and mercy over the army.
On one hand, he is trying to address the problem
of the widespread corruption to establish his authority;
on the other, he obliges them by cutting down the military
increase in a moderate manner, because he doesn’t want to irritate the military force.
Political commentator Heng He remarked that the military
increase will not influence China’s economic development too much as China has a very large economic pool.
Heng He: ”The more important question is how much
will the CCP depend on the military to solve any crisis.
If a huge military power is necessary to deal with political
or economic crisis in the future, this will lead to increase in the army’ spending.
I don’t think this policy will change much
with the new commander-in-chief.”
Heng He further remarked that being able to “benefit”
from corruption is what the CCP entices its followers with.
If all the corruption is really eliminated,
then both the party and its army will have survival crisis.
Heng He: ”How can the CCP implement anti-corruption
policy with a power from one individual?
When the whole party is corrupt,
anti-corruption is what will destroy it.
This cannot last for long as it would either kill the party,
or the individual himself.
At most it can become
a political movement for a while.
But it will never be really effective in eliminating corruption,
which is already ubiquitous.”
Another article reveals that the salaries in the army
will be raised again in June.
This move can be seen as Xi continuing to win
the army’s loyalty with “power” and “money.”
In such a case there is little chance of seeing a significant
slowdown in the military spending growth.
According to US statistics, China’s “actual” military spending
is maybe 3 to 4 times higher to what CCP announces to be.
