【新唐人2012年11月07日訊】據大陸媒體報導，10月31號，中國第二種隱形戰鬥機-AMF五代戰機殲-31成功試飛。但西方軍事人士分析認為，這型隱形戰機仍然沒有突破發動機的技術瓶頸，隱形能力也值得懷疑，所謂第五代只是空有其名。中共在十八大有意放出試飛五代戰機的消息，被外界看做是政治上的虛張聲勢。下面請看本臺記者的分析報導。
據報導，由中航工業瀋飛研製的殲-31，比殲-20小，更偏重於制空，未來可能作為艦載機使用。隨機配備的兩個發動機全部從俄羅斯引進。
《俄羅斯之聲》廣播電臺11月1號發表文章，標題是：「中國首次試飛殲-31 給十八大獻禮 向敵人亮劍」。但西方觀察家們對中國殲-31隱形戰機進行細緻入微的分析後，得出結論，殲-31戰機不足為患，更不能證明中國技術趕上西方發展。
軍事專家認為，中國隱形戰機最大的瓶頸是發動機問題，研製出配套的發動機可能需要十年甚至更長的時間。美國海軍戰爭學院教授安德魯?埃里克森(Andrew Erickson)和吉伯?柯林斯(Gabe Collins)在《華爾街日報》上撰文說，殲-31的雙發設計，體現了兩種可能：一方面，它需要更大的推力，去維持遠程或巡航作戰;另一方面，中國對俄製發動機性能不信任，擔心單發不足以保證戰機的正常使用。
據報導，中國的發動機剛跨越第三代，發動機與複合材料的使用仍然是短板。在渦輪葉片以及渦輪盤材料，和工藝兩個方面的技術難題，沒有大的突破。至今，包括殲-10戰機在內的新型戰機裝備，仍然是從俄羅斯進口發動機。
「美國國家航空航天局（NASA）」工程師黃祖威，對「五代戰機殲-31」的說法提出質疑，他舉例說，飛機上的發動機，就好比計算機的CPU，直接體現出性能。殲-31的發動機達不到第五代，就不能說是五代機。
「美國國家航空航天局（NASA）」工程師黃祖威：「不可能就說我要發展第五代就第五代，技術不到就是不到，你做不出來。因為這個機械的東西，尤其這種噴射機、戰鬥機，他裡面的…牽涉到高科技的東西非常多，尤其是他這個渦輪，講那個葉片，比如你要在多少時間，能夠讓飛機爬升多高﹖或者是能夠多快﹖在多短時間內達到超音速﹖你做不到就不能符合他（第五代）。」
美國等西方國家將航空發動機技術作為核心技術，對中國進行全方位封鎖，中國根本無法進行技術引進。據報導，中國已將發動機研發作為國家重點工程，投入費用高達一千億元，並在北京建立航空發動機產業基地。
黃祖威認為，航天高科技，並不是靠投入金錢、人力就可以研發出來，即使現在中共黑客竊取到的西方技術核心機密，拿去研究，也未必能做出來。
黃祖威：「你不知道那個秘方那個訣竅在哪裏。不是靠錢和一些所謂的人才就搞的到的。還有個問題，你像武器和各方面先進的東西也好，不是一項突破就可以，要方方面面都跟著上，如果說現在它把這個偷來，你說不定還是做不出來，因為人家發動機設計和其他所有東西是配套的，你的系統不一定一樣。」
西方防務專家們認為，殲-31戰機將在未來很長時間內無用武之地。因為中國還沒有制定在航空母艦上裝備艦載機的計劃，而且原型機實現定型、量產還需要很長的時間。另外殲-31的武器配備上也屬一般，內置彈倉僅能放置四枚中程武器。
相比美國航空發動機技術預研能力已經到了第七代，中國發動機技術剛剛到第三代，當局卻放出所謂第五代戰機的消息，不免讓外界覺得水分太多、太假。黃祖威認為，中共一直鼓吹航天科技來為它的執政地位造勢，把自己吹大，吹成「偉光正」，目地就是給自己貼金。
採訪/陳漢 編輯/許旻 後製/王明宇
Westerners Raise Doubts on “Fifth-Generation J-31”
China’s alleged J-31 stealth fighter reportedly made
a successful first test flight on October 31.
Western military analysts pointed out that the fighter has
a reported technical bottleneck on the engine.
They also suspected its real ability to dodge radar, and
the so-called “fifth-generation J-31” is just in name only.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regime unveiled
“the fifth-generation J-31” ahead of its 18th Party Congress,
which is deemed to be political bluff.
The J-31 fighter jet was reportedly developed by
Avic Shenyang Aircraft Corp.
As China’s 2nd stealth fighter, the J-31 is smaller than
the J-20, and may be used on aircraft carriers.
Its two add-on engines were said to be
imported from Russia.
Voice of Russia published an online article on November 1.
It was titled “First Test Flight of China’s J-31, a Gift to
the 18th Party Congress and a Sword to Enemies.”
Yet, Western observers don’t treat it as a new military threat.
Nor could it prove that China has greater
technical prowess than Western counterparts.
Military experts say that the biggest technical bottleneck for
China’s stealth fighter lies in its engine.
The development time usually lasts about 10 years or longer.
Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins, commented in a
co-authored article published in the Wall Street Journal. It said,
The double engine design has two possible reasons:
1) it provide more power for long route and higher performance.
2) China is worried about how reliable of the Russia made
engine, and can it perform well when its on duty.
Reportedly, China’s self-developed engine just reached
the third-generation.
Although the application of engine and
composite materials still has weaknesses.
No major breakthrough has been made yet on the material
and processing of turbine blades and turbine disk.
So far, engines on China’s new aircraft including
the J-10 are all imported from Russia.
Huang Zuwei, NASA engineer, questions the term of
“J-31 fifth-generation fighter jet”.
Huang says, an aircraft engine is just like a computer’s CPU,
which directly shows its performance.
The J-31, equipped with a below the fifth-gen engine,
can not be called “a fifth-gen fighter jet”.
Huang Zuwei: “Whether it’s called the fifth-gen fighter jet or
not it cannot be what it is claimed to be.
If technology falls short, you just can’t make it up
Because the machinery, like a jet or fighter jet,
is made with high-technology, which is especially shown
on its turbine and blade.
For example, the time frame and height that are designed
for the aircraft to reach in take off.
And how quickly it will reach supersonic speed?
If technology falls short, it cannot be called fifth generation.”
The U.S. and other Western countries take aircraft engines
as core technology that is fully confidential to China.
China has no normal channel to introduce technology.
Media reported that the CCP authorities have incorporated
engine R & D into national priorities projects.
The input cost was said to be as high as RMB100 billion,
and an aircraft engine industry base has been set up in Beijing.
Huang Zuwei comments that aerospace high-tech is not
achieved just through money and manpower.
Even if the CCP back-stage hackers stole core technology,
they may not necessarily achieve what they expected.
Huang Zuwei: “This is because they don’t have
the know-how, which is something that is not simply piled up with money and human input.
And success of R&D of advanced weapons or other
cutting-edge technology is based on breakthroughs made in several areas.
Even if you stole it, you may still be unable to use it,
Since it must be compatible with engines and various other facets of equipment which you may not possess.
other facets of equipment, which you may not possess.”
Western defense experts believe that it will take a long time
before the J-31 reaches full operational status.
As China has not yet developed a plan to equip
carrier-based aircraft.
It reportedly needs years to see mass production of
the J-31 prototype.
In addition, the J-31 carries quite common weapons and can
only hold four medium-range weapons in its built-in cartridge.
The U.S. has now developed the 7th-gen aircraft engine.
By contrast, China has just reached the 3rd-gen.
Yet, the CCP authorities now unveiled its “fifth-gen” jet fighter,
which naturally raised public suspicion.
Huang Zuwei says, the CCP has long hyped aerospace
technology to glorify its reign.
