【新唐人2012年9月29日訊】28號，中共中央政治局會議決定了「十八大」的召開日期，及重慶市原市委書記薄熙來被「雙開」的處理。對於18大的日期和中共未來的走向，因為王立軍出走美領館，加上胡錦濤缺席聯合國會議，中共風雨飄搖的政權更加吸引世界眼球。到底是甚麼原因導致中共領導人推遲18大？推遲能解決中國的問題嗎？胡錦濤為甚麼會缺席聯合國會議？請看專家分析。
就在外媒紛紛猜測，中共18大可能提前召開，17屆七中全會將通過對薄熙來處理決定的時刻。《新華社》9月28號報導，薄熙來已被開除黨籍，將面臨司法機關的審理。報導還說，中共18大將在11月8號召開。
時政評論家橫河認為，薄熙來的案子和中共內部在人事安排上的紛爭，導致18大延期。
時政評論家橫河：「我想是處理薄熙來的事情不得不延期，我一直認為薄熙來的問題必須在18大前，因為新的班子不願意接這個燙手的山芋，也沒有聽說過哪一個所謂路線鬥爭或這種黨內鬥爭的情況會跨屆的。」
時政評論員藍述認為，9月10號，日內瓦聯合國人權代表大會上，被曝光的活摘法輪功學員器官事件，引起了中共的恐懼。
藍述說，薄熙來任職遼寧期間，活摘法輪功學員器官，並販賣屍體牟利的黑幕，成了中共處理薄熙來的燙手山芋，是否公開這一黑，導致整個中共高層完全分裂。
時政評論員藍述：「其主要原因也是因為活摘器官的事情，他們不知道怎麼處理，不可忽略的因素就是在9月10號召開的第21屆聯合國人權代表大會上，由於整個國際社會目前聚焦活體摘除器官的事情，毫無疑問，將給北京高層形成巨大的壓力。」
北京時政觀察人士華頗認為，如果中共不能拋棄一黨專政的話，18大提前和推遲都不能真正解決中國存在的問題。
北京時政觀察人士華頗：「我覺得改變的時機來講，機會也有，就是能夠實行憲政民主，能夠繼續深化政治體制改革，這是當務之急，如果要是還是這樣被利益集團所綁架，我看以後中國不但經濟要硬著陸，政治制度改革也會出現硬著陸的局面，可能社會會出現劇烈震盪的可能。」
《紐約時報》在題為「習近平面臨空前挑戰」的文章中指出，治理未來十年的中國，可能是全球最艱難的工作之一。中國經濟增長減緩，社會矛盾緊張深化，軍事民族主義高漲。新興中產階級、農民和城市貧民，要求在腐敗、土地權利、住房、醫療、污染、甚至強迫墮胎等一系列問題上，具有發言權。建立社會公平感，將是中國下屆最高領導人習近平面臨的最大挑戰之一。
第67屆「聯合國大會」25號在紐約聯合國總部揭幕，全球130多個國家的元首和政府首腦雲集紐約，正在進行競選的美國總統奧巴馬也不例外，中國國家主席胡錦濤卻沒有露面，引起外界關注。
西方媒體認為，事關中共領導階層十年一度大換班的18大即將舉行，接班人事頗費周章，新領導班子又面臨空前挑戰，再加上釣魚島危機和國內醜聞，胡必須親自坐鎮北京，無法分身。
藍述說，中共高層對薄王事件的處理中，完全廻避薄王事件背後活摘法輪功學員器官的罪惡，谷開來和王立軍案中也沒有提及這個挑戰人類道德底線的問題，藍述認為，胡錦濤缺席的更重要原因是為了廻避國際社會的質問。
時政評論員藍述：「任何像中共高層的這些人，胡溫都沒有辦法面對聯合國目前如此聚焦，如此高度的聚焦這個活體摘除法輪功學員器官這麼一個熱門話題，他如果真的到了聯合國的話，在國際的媒體和世界各個國際社會人權組織的這個直接向他提出問題時候，他沒有辦法回答這個問題。」
另外，在聯合國會議上，領土、領海的爭端，成為今年辯論的熱點。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/鍾元
Analysts discuss why the 18th CCP’s National Congress is
delayed and why Hu Jintao is absent from the UN meeting
On September 28th, the CCP’s Central Politburo finally
announced the schedule of the 18th National Congress.
The Politburo also announced that Bo Xilai has been expelled
both from the party and public office.
Since Wang Lijun defected to the U.S. consulate, the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) regime is more unstable than ever.
As Hu Jintao missed the United Nations General Assembly’s
annual meeting this week,
the CCP’s future and its coming National Congress
caught even more worldly attention.
What’s the reason for delaying the 18th National Congress?
Will such delay help solve China’s problems?
Why is Hu Jintao absent from the UN meeting?
Analysts have provided their answers to these questions.
Most foreign media recently speculate that the schedule of
18th National Congress will be brought forward.
The disciplinary measures against Bo Xilai will be determined
during the 7th plenary session at 17th CCP’s Central Committee.
On September 28th, Xinhua news agency reported that Bo Xilai
has been expelled from the party and will face criminal charges.
At the same time, the report wrote that the CCP’s 18th
National Congress will be held on November 8th.
Political commentator Heng He believes that the 18th
National Congress is delayed to deal with Bo Xilai’s case
as well as in-party conflicts of personnel arrangements.
(Heng He, political commentator):”I think it is Bo Xilai’s case
that delays the congress.
I always believe Bo’s case will be finished before congress
because the new leader group is not willing to take over this hot potato.
I also didn’t hear that any CCP’s internal fight over
future route would be left unsolved for the new leaders.”
Another political commentator Lan Shu remarked that
the CCP were horrified by its crime of live organ harvesting
from Falun Gong practitioners had been exposed at the
Conference of UN Human Rights Council in Geneva.
Lan Shu said Bo Xilai was the backstage culprit of live organ
harvesting and human body trade as Governor of Liaoning.
This atrocious crime has become a most difficult issue for
the CCP to deal with.
Its leaders have had completely different opinions on
whether to announce these facts to the public.
(Lan Shu, political commentator):”One major reason to delay
the 18th National Congress is that they don’t know how to handle the issue of live organ harvesting.
You can’t ignore that this crime was exposed at the 21st
Conference of UN Human Rights Council on September 10th.
Because all the global society is currently focusing on this crime,
the CCP leaders are undoubtedly under enormous pressure.”
Beijing political observer Hua Po believes if the CCP cannot
abandon its one-party dictatorship regime,
nothing will be resolved no matter when
the 18th National Congress is held.
(Hua Po, Beijing political observer):”I think there is still
chance to make changes,
such as implementing constitutional democracy and
furthering reforms of political framework.
These are the most urgent things to do right now.
If the CCP’s vested interest group continues to kidnap
China’s political regime, I think both China’s economy and
political reform will have to experience a hard landing, which
can possibly lead to a great disturbance of the whole nation.”
A New York Times article titled “Unprecedented Challenges
for Xi Jinping” wrote that,
one of the most difficult jobs in the world must be
governing China in the next 10 years.
China is now experiencing a slowdown in economic
development, intensified conflicts among social groups, and upsurge of military nationalism.
The developing middle classes, peasants and the urban
poor are requesting more rights to speak on the issues of
anti-corruption, use of land, housing, medical treatment,
pollution and forced abortion, among others.
One of the biggest challenges for Xi Jinping will be building
up real social justice in China.
Since September 25th, the 67th session of UN
General Assembly was held in New York.
The heads of over 130 countries gathered in the meeting,
including President Obama of the United States.
However, the CCP’s national president Hu Jintao was absent
from the meeting, which has drawn attention from outsiders.
Western media believe that as the critical 18th National
Congress approaches, Hu Jintao has to stay in Beijing to handle the difficulties in personnel arrangements;
the challenges in front of the new leader group, the crisis
of Sensaku Islands disputes and political scandals in China altogether made the situation even worse for Hu.
Lan Shu remarked that until now the CCP leaders had totally
evaded the issue of live organ harvesting of Falun Gong practitioners during the handling of Bo Xilai’s case.
Such a crime which challenges humanity’s basic morality was
also ignored in the trials of Gu Kailai and Wang Lijun.
Lan Shu believes that, a more important reason for Hu’s
absence from the UN meeting is to escape the queries from global society.
(Lan Shu, political commentator): ”Any CCP leader,
including Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao,
is not able to face the leaders in the UN meeting when live
organ harvesting of Falun Gong practitioners is such a hot topic.
If Hu really attends the meeting, he cannot respond if media
or human rights organization question him on this issue.”
It is reported that territorial disputes are another hot
topic in this year’s UN meeting.
