【新唐人2012年9月15日訊】中國經濟「三駕馬車」之一的主力——外貿進出口，訂單正在持續下滑，有些外銷服裝的中小企業，早已撐不下去，開網店在國內自尋生路。針對外貿持續放緩，中共國務院最近通過多項振興方案。但，能扭轉一路下滑的外貿出口困境嗎﹖我們來看專家怎麼分析。
由於2008年底之後的全球經濟風暴影響，中國大陸出口訂單銳減，一些中國服裝商家最近轉型開網店，企圖在電子商務行業擴張的同時，轉戰國內市場。網店客服人員黃先生介紹，確實有不少外銷服裝業轉戰網店。
淘寶網店客服人員黃先生：「比較多這種情況，因為在網上銷售不限地區，可以拓寬銷路。」
中國大陸的中小企業在困境中尋求出路，轉戰國內市場，恐怕也是無奈之舉。旅美中國經濟學者「普林斯頓大學」社會學博士程曉農分析，外銷商轉向網購，面對國內市場，是搶佔國內市場份額。
旅美中國經濟學者程曉農：「少數幾個出口廠家去搶，也許能夠有點結果。如果大批的都想去搶，那是不可能的，而且還有個大問題，因為經濟蕭條，裁員的壓力越來越大，物價上漲又很厲害，所以很多熱衷於網購的白領，現在實際上購買力在萎縮。從趨勢上來看，不見得網購市場就能每年保持高速度成長。」
稍早前，《路透社》針對20家機構的調查預測，中國大陸第3季GDP將連續第7季下滑，年增率只有7.4％。中共國務院在12號的常務會議上，通過了《關於促進外貿穩定增長的若干意見》，其中提出，加快出口退稅進度、出口信用保險、貿易融資、降低通關成本、妥善應對貿易摩擦，依法實施進口貿易救濟等八項政策措施。試圖解決當前中國外貿面臨的外需萎縮、企業經營壓力加大等問題。
目前，中國面臨的出口創匯急遽下滑，可謂內外夾殺。獨立中國經濟學家鞏勝利分析，對外來說，歐美經濟的問題短期內沒法解決；而中國目前的企業運行，相對於全球的法治國家，它的成本應當是最高的。
獨立中國經濟學家鞏勝利：「從以上兩點來看，中國解決經濟下行的這個問題，非一日之功。國內成本高有幾個方面，稅收高，還一個收費高。收費就是國家稅收之外的，比如像罰款、比如說政府的管理費，方方面面的費。」
今年以來，中國外貿較去年同期明顯放緩，特別是７月份後急劇下滑。鞏勝利認為，中國經濟整體下行，絕非表面出口創匯或者以投資拉動可以逆轉，因為根源在國家政策出問題。
鞏勝利：「中國是統治經濟，就是中國的所有的金融、經濟、商品、企業，都納入中央的一統壟斷。每個省、每個市、每個縣都不可能有自己的方針和政策，全部納入整體統治經濟的鳥籠裏面去，統一管理起來﹔對市場調節啊，現在是走到了歷史的最低點。」
對於，目前中共國務院通過的八項政策，鞏勝利指出，這只是試驗式的短期行為。「中國特色」終將與全球市場經濟國家再次發生衝突。
採訪編輯/梁欣 後製/周天
China’s Export Measures ‘Only Experimental, Short Term Approach’
One of the main forces of China’s economic “troika”—
import and export of foreign goods, continues to decline.
Some medium and small clothing export enterprises
are already struggling to survive in Mainland China.
Cyber stores on internet found its own path in China.
The State Council recently passed export measures
in an attempt to revitalize the continuous slowdown.
However, experts think this is only an experimental,
short term approach, as it is impossible to turn the tide.
Due to the global economic turmoil at the end of 2008,
orders for goods’ export in Mainland decreased sharply.
Some Chinese clothing stores moved online, to battle
the market with the development of digital tools.
Taobao.com online store customer service’ employee
Mr. Huang confirms the trend.
Mr. Huang: “Recently there are relatively more such cases,
as there is no restriction online, and one can expand sales.”
It seems that medium and small companies in China have
turned to the domestic market for a lack of other options.
Chinese economic expert and Princeton University』 scholar
of sociology, Dr. Cheng Xiaonong analyzes the issue.
Dr. Cheng thinks, export suppliers turning to online trade,
is seizing upon China』s domestic market』s share.
Dr. Chen Xiaonong: “Very few export companies seize upon
it, maybe there will be some results if a mass of them do this.
Yet, that would be impossible, and there』d be a big problem,
because of the economic recession.
The pressure of laying off employees becomes greater,
with the prices going up.
The purchasing power of many white collar workers
who are fans of online shopping, is now decreasing.
Looking at this trend, it does not seem the online
market can maintain a high growth rate every year.”
Earlier, Reuters reported of 20 agencies』 forecast that China』
3rd quarter GDP rate at 7.4% will be the 7th consecutive quarter of decline.
China’s State Council have passed a proposal, “Concerns
for Stimulating Foreign Trade’s Stable Increase and Other Suggestions” during its executive meeting on the 12th.
The document lists eight policy measures, like speeding up
the export process, addressing credit insurance, reducing the cost of customs clearance, etc.
The measures are an attempt to solve the problems,
that China faces with its foreign trade.
Currently, China is experiencing a drastic decline in export,
and trade dangers both internally, as well as externally.
Independent Chinese economist Gong Shengli analyzes,
Europe and US’s economic problems can’t be solved quickly.
Yet the way China’s enterprises are run now, if compared
to law abiding countries, its costs should be the highest.
Gong Shengli: “From the above two points, China’ economic
decline is not a problem that can be solved in a day.
There are a few factors for the high costs in China,
like the high national taxes for example.
Plus, besides the national taxes there are fees, like fines,
government admin fees, and fees in all aspects.”
This year, China’s foreign trade have clearly slowed down,
compared to last year, with the slowdown being especially sharp since July.
Gong thinks, China’ overall economic decline can』t be turned
around by superficial exports or creating currencies, because the problems stem from the nation’s policies.
Gong Shengli: “China has a monopoly over the economy,
all the money, commodities and enterprises are dominated by the Central government.
It is impossible for each province, city and county to have
own policies, they are included in the overall ruling economic birdcage, and are managed uniformly.
Thus in terms of market adjustment,
it is at its historical low.”
As for the eight policy measures which were passed, Gong
said this can be only an experimental, short term approach.
The economy with “Chinese characteristics”
will once again clash with the global market economy.
