【新唐人2012年8月24日訊】中共解放軍副總參謀長蔡英挺自20號起率團在美國訪問，訪問前中美雙方都沒有預報消息，而引起了外界的關注。外界評論指出，這次訪問是中共尋求化解當前與周邊國家危機、降低與美國軍隊對抗的「減壓之行」。但是，美中雙方都在積極備戰，中國政治制度不變，美中之戰不可避免。
蔡英挺的這次率團訪美，是繼國防部長梁光烈訪美僅3個多月之後，中共高級軍方代表團的再度訪美。
去年，升任副總參謀長的蔡英挺是目前中共副總參謀長中最年輕的一位。這次訪問，他的主要隨行人員有北京軍區參謀長王寧，濟南軍區副司令員兼濟南軍區空軍司令員鄭群良，廣州軍區參謀長賈曉煒，總參戰略規劃部副部長陳守民等。
據透露，代表團將訪問夏威夷的美國太平洋戰區司令部，和美軍現役最大的裝甲部隊——德克薩斯州胡德堡陸軍基地，以及駐有B-2隱形戰略轟炸機的密蘇里州美軍懷特曼空軍基地。
時政評論家、《中國事務》雜誌總編輯伍凡認為，這次中共軍方訪美，不是正規會談，主要是為了緩解雙方的關係，為中國當前在南海、東海與周邊國家的危機找出路，也為美中軍隊對抗減壓。
《中國事務》總編輯 伍凡： 「現在美國的制度和中國的制度，思想意識形態都不一樣，雙方都在較勁。 中共軍方和美國軍隊坐下來做一些交流，或做一些探討，雙方摸底，不要誤判，產生不必要的意外衝突。」
目前，中國與周邊很多國家的衝突不斷加大：不久前，中共宣佈在南海成立三沙市，造成中國與越南、菲律賓之間的危機再度升級﹔而在釣魚島問題上，中國最近與日本劍拔弩張，大有戰爭之勢，中共煤體《環球時報》報導甚至宣稱，釣魚島危機已上升為中日當前不可調和的矛盾，中國政府要做好必要的軍事準備。「國防大學」教授戴旭更在媒體上說，把日本船抓兩條過來，日本自衛隊敢動手就幹它。
另外，最近中國的戰略核潛艇，成功試射了一枚彈道導彈「巨浪—3」，讓民族主義人士戰意更濃，頭腦發熱。
不過，歐巴馬在2009年調整戰略，高調宣佈美國重返亞洲，對中共造成直接的衝突。僅在2012年，在亞太地區由美國主導的聯合軍事演習，大大小小的演習總數已達10多次。其中不少演習直接將中國作為潛在的對抗目標，使中共倍感壓力。
據報導，自22號開始，美國海軍陸戰隊與日本自衛隊進行為期37天的島嶼作戰演習，表面上，演習並不以特定國家作為假想敵，但日本防衛省官員透露，「事實上這次演練是假想釣魚島『受到中國軍隊侵入攻擊』時，日方將如何奪島的情況。 」
伍凡指出，目前美中雙方都在為戰爭積極做準備，中共正在大力發展導彈、隱形飛機、太空武器等，當然美國也在積極研製它的高端武器，爭取在技術上更大的領先。
伍凡： 「兩個大國，實際上說穿了都是在準備戰爭，準備總有一天打。如果中共的整個政治制度、社會制度、經濟制度改變了，那麼這個大戰可能性就消失了，就好像冷戰結束以後，蘇聯變成俄國了，那個戰爭可能性就沒有了。」
伍凡認為，這次雙方軍方接觸，是戰爭還沒打起來之前的互相摸底，試圖尋求降低戰爭的可能性，其中，還可能，美國想了解中共18大後，軍隊在整個國家制度、黨政制度裡面佔一個甚麼地位、起一個甚麼作用的意圖。
採訪/陳漢 編輯/宋風 後製/蕭宇
Another High Level Military Delegation visits US
Thought Purpose is to Release Pressure – Analysts
The vice chief of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) General Staff
Department, Cai Yingting led a delegation to the United States on August 20th.
Neither China nor the United States made any official announce-
ment before the visit, which aroused attention from outside.
Analysts believe that the visit suggests the CCP wants to
avoid opposition to the US military in disputes with neighbor ing countries;
however, as both countries show an active attitude
in military deployment,
a war between China and the United states is inevitable
if China’s political regime does not change.
Cai Yingting’s is another high-level military group
which visits the United States
following the head of Ministry of National Defense,’s
Liang Guanglie’s visit three months ago.
Cai Yingting, who was promoted last year, is the youngest
vice chief of the PLA’s General Staff Department.
Cai』s entourage includes Wang Ning, chief of staff of
the Beijing Military Area Command,
Zheng Qunliang, deputy commander
of the Jinan Military Area Command,
Jia Xiaowei, chief of staff of the Guangzhou
Military Area Command and
Chen Shoumin, deputy head of the strategic planning
department of the PLA General Staff Headquarters.
Sources said that the delegation will visit the headquarters
of United States Pacific Command in Hawaii,
the largest military base of the armed forces at Fort Hood
in Texas and Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri where B-2 stealth bombers are stationed.
Political commentator, editor of China Affairs magazine
Wu Fan remarked that,
Cai’s visit was aimed at improving relations with the United
States rather than being a formal bilateral talk;
the CCP has tried to find solutions to the current territorial
dispute crisis with neighboring countries,
and to release the pressure between the armies of China
and the United States.
(Wu Fan, chief editor of China Affairs): ”The political regime
and ideology of the United States and China are very different.
Both countries are constantly battling with each other
in those fields.
Therefore, talks or communications between the armies aim
at exchanging attitudes and understandings with each other to avoid unnecessary military conflicts.”
Currently, the conflicts between the CCP and its neighboring
countries are becoming increasingly intense.
A short while ago the CCP announced the establishment of
Sansha city in the South China Sea.
This has intensified the territorial dispute between
China and Vietnam or the Philippines.
On the disputed Uotsuri Jima (Diaoyu Islands) problem,
the CCP and Japan are at loggerheads which could lead to war.
The CCP’s mouthpiece media, Global Times, announced that
the conflict over the sovereignty of Uotsuri Jima between the CCP and Japan is inextricable;
the CCP should make necessary preparations for possible
future military conflicts.
Professor at National Defense University Dai Xu even publicly
suggested capturing Japanese ships and attacking Japan』s maritime defense forces.
On the other hand, the CCP successfully fired a ballistic
missile JL-3 from its nuclear strategic submarine.
This has greatly encouraged Chinese nationalists
who advocate starting war.
In 2009, president Obama publicly announced that the
United States had moved back its military focus to Asia, which action directly conflicts with the CCP’s strategic goal.
The United States had led more than 10 joint military
exercises at different levels in Asia-Pacific region since 2012.
Many of them directly set China as the potential enemy,
which exerted great pressure on the CCP.
It is reported that the United States Marine Corps and Japan’s
defense forces will perform a 37-day joint military exercise on island battles from August 22nd.
Although there’s no official imaginary enemy in the exercise,
a Japanese defense official revealed that,
“the exercise is in fact a simulation of the capture of
the island if Uotsuri Jima were invaded by the CCP.”
Wu Fan remarked that, the United States and the CCP were
actively preparing for a future war;
the CCP was developing missiles, stealth aircraft and
space weapons; on the other hand,
the United States was also carrying out research on new
high-end weapons for a more advantageous lead in technique.
(Wu Fan): ”Both powers are preparing for a war
which may come about at some time in the future.
However, if the whole political, social and economic regime
of the CCP collapses, perhaps the war will not break out.
As we can see from a similar case, the disintegration of
the Soviet Union after the Cold War eliminated the possibility of war breaking out.”
Wu Fan believes that Cai’s visit is an exchange of attitudes
between both countries to avoid a possible coming war;
the United States might also be interested in understanding
the role which the army will play in the CCP’s regime after the 18th National Congress.
