【新唐人2012年8月18日訊】中國經濟7月宏觀資料呈現增長疲軟，7月居民消費價格指數（CPI）同比漲幅下滑至兩年半谷底，粉碎了一些經濟學家預計：經濟年中觸底反彈的樂觀判斷。各金融機構開始調整對於中國2012年全年GDP增長8%到9%的預期。各地開始了以「穩增長」為招牌的各類上馬專案自救。專家指出，中共的經濟政策方向已經錯誤，現在還企圖通過所謂「地方版四萬億」製造經濟繁榮的假相，只會讓中國老百姓陷入更深的痛苦。
大陸統計局消息，7月居民消費價格指數（CPI）同比漲幅下滑至兩年半谷底，同時，進出口增速雙雙下跌，出口增速為1%，遠低於6月的11.3%水準，而進口增速為4.7%，也低於6月的6.3%增幅﹔與此同時，工業增加值與固定資產投資等關鍵資料，也低於市場預期，中國經濟實體層面硬著陸已經開始。
為了維持所謂的「穩增長」，各地方政府出臺了刺激經濟增長的各種投資計劃，外界稱之為「地方版四萬億」。
不過，這些計劃還是著眼於基礎建設，鐵路建設依然是地方政府的首選。例如武漢在「十二五」期間，將重點建設82個交通建設項目，總投資3131.49億元。
經濟學家茅於軾指出，這種企圖用「增加投入」而「增加產出」的思路，已經行不通。他說中國的經濟整體呈現「浪費」的嚴重現象，而金融系統的「爛帳現象」已經形成巨大隱患。
經濟學家茅於軾：「方向搞錯了，增加投入不是方向，要提高效率才是方向，投入很高，產出很少，那就是賠錢，賠錢就是一個窟窿，一個窟窿的話，不但不解決當前的困難，反而把困難往後推了，將來還窟窿還不出來，那是大問題啦。」
美國「南卡羅來納大學艾肯商學院」教授謝田說，09年為了刺激經濟，中共中央政府投入的四萬億，導致了今天的通貨膨脹，而當今當局為了保持所謂的GDP增長，還在採取同樣的手法。
美「南卡羅來納大學艾肯商學院」教授謝田：「盲目的投資，在進行的時候，一定成為中共官員中飽私囊的一個工具，這就是他們為甚麼樂此不疲，一而再、再而三的進行這種重復的、浪費的、無效益的投資，關鍵對整個社會造成惡劣的惡影響，進一步加強資產的泡沫，進一步加大中國的通貨膨脹 。」
英國《金融時報》專欄作家徐瑾說，當年的四萬億，主要通過政府財政與銀行融資支撐資金來源，中央所出部分不足當年GDP總量的5%﹔目前地方版四萬億資金來源還不明確，而刺激力度也令人錯愕。
大陸目前不時聽到某地方政府將要破產的傳言。徐瑾指出，地方政府也是市場的主要玩家，在他們日子不好過的情況下，要小心他們畫一個大餅，作為獲得各方政策和資金支持的政績資本。
而謝田表示，地方版四萬億會導致又一次GDP大躍進。
謝田：「它為了保證GDP的增長，它可以去借錢、可以大印鈔票、可以從各種地方融資來那種虛假的、泡沫化的經濟投資，基建投資，所以這個數字它想要做到的話，一定能做到，做不到它有其他的辦法，弄虛作假的辦法能達到。」
反觀地方版四萬億，長沙的刺激計劃目標是8000億，不過長沙市去年全年的地方財政總收入才668.11億元。根據媒體報導，長沙市上半年重點工程投資完成額只有年度計劃的31%，重大商務專案纍計投資額只有年度計劃的21.78%。
徐瑾表示，地方政府的如意算盤不外乎是：以區域政策和產業政策結合，爭取專案規劃，一旦獲得發改委審批之後，依靠招商引資、各種優惠條件吸引外來資金，政府自己卻拿不出多少真金實銀。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/周天
“Local Version of 4 Trillion Yuan Plan” Launched in China
Economic data for July 2012 revealed weak growth in China.
The year-to-year growth in the CPI data
fell to a two-and-half year low in July.
This drop has shattered some economists’ expectation
of the economy bouncing back in the middle of this year.
Financial institutions began to adjust their China
forecast of between 8% and 9% GDP growth in 2012.
Local Chinese Communist Party (CCP) authorities have
launched plans to stimulate and “stabilize economic growth”.
Experts say China’s economic
policy has gone the wrong way.
Official attempts to use the “local version of
4 Trillion yuan plan,”
which will create fake economic prosperity will only
entrap Chinese civilians into deeper problems.
China’s official data showed the CPI year-on-year growth
rate for July dropped to it’s lowest in two and a half years.
The growth of both import and export has fallen, too.
Exports grew by 1%, far below the 11.3% in June.
Imports rose by 4.7%, less than the 6.3% in June.
Industrial added value and fixed asset investments
were all below market expectations.
The hard landing for China’s economy has begun.
In order to stabilize economic growth, local CCP
authorities have launched a variety of investment projects to push the economy forward.
These are known as “the local version of
the 4 Trillion yuan plan”.
The plan aims at infrastructure construction,
with railway construction the preferred choice.
For example, in Wuhan, there will be a focus
on the construction of 82 transportation projects.
This will involve an investment of over 313 Billion yuan.
Economist Mao Yushi has said that the approach to
“increase output" by “increasing investment" cannot work.
China’s overall economy has presented a serious “waste”.
Bad debt factors in the financial system have
caused potential hazards, according to Mao Yushi.
Mao Yushi: “It’s a wrong way to increase investment.
It should improve efficiency.
With high input and very little output, that will lose money,
and form a hole that postpones current difficulties.
It will be a bigger problem in the future
if the hole is unplugged.”
Xie Tian is Assistant Professor
at the University of South Carolina Aiken.
He remarked on the CCP’s economic stimulus policy.
In 2009, its 4 Trillion yuan stimulation
plan led to today’s inflation.
Now the regime still uses the same
method to maintain GDP growth.
Xie Tian: “The blind investment has inevitably become
a tool for the CCP officials to fill their own pockets.
That’s why they’ve never been reluctant to launch
repeated, wasteful and unproductive investment.
The bad effects have been exerted on the entire community.
It has further fuelled the asset bubble and China’s inflation."
Xu Jin, columnist of the UK’s Financial Times,
commented that in 2009, the 4 Trillion yuan plan
was funded by fiscal revenue and bank loans.
The currency taken out by CCP central authorities
accounted for less than 5% of GDP in 2009.
The source of capital for “the local 4 Trillion yuan”
is still unknown, according to Xu Jin’s commentary.
Rumors have raised in China that some
local authorities could go bankrupt.
Xu Jin said that local authorities
are also major market players.
Xu Jin warned that they have exaggerated political
achievements to gain favorable policies and financial support.
Xie Tian believes that the local version of the 4 Trillion yuan
plan would lead to another great leap forward of GDP.
Xie Tian: “In order to maintain GDP growth, it has sought
bank loans, undertaken a lot of money printing,
and used various funding sources.
The money went to infrastructure and phony investments.
So it can achieve the figure it sets,
falsification will surely help to make it.”
The target of the stimulation plan for Changsha authorities
is an investment of 800 Billion yuan.
The city’s 2011 fiscal revenue was only 66.8 Billion yuan.
The media reported that in Changsha in the first half of 2012,
only 31% of total key projects were fully-funded.
The total investment on major business projects
only reached 21.78% of the yearly budget.
According to Xu Jin’s speculation, local CCP authorities
would probably still utilize local and industrial policies to attract foreign capital.
The local authorities would still be poor in the funding.
