【新唐人2012年7月13日訊】美國雜誌刊登文章提出，最近出現了一個「新專制軸心」的大國集團，它們害怕民主與自由，害怕美國和西方的實力與影響。這些國家站在了歷史、政治和經濟的錯誤一邊，它們可能給國際社會帶來動亂。但是，學者認為，這個「專制軸心」沒有共同信仰，只是一個利益集團，所以很不牢固，也很難真正給國際社會造成動亂。
新一期的美國《外交》雜誌發表了《一個專制軸心正在崛起？》（An Authoritarian Axis Rising?）的文章。文章認為，近幾個月來，許多專制國家正在表現出相互抱團這種令人不安的趨勢，它們不是「邪惡軸心」，但是會給國際體系帶來混亂。
文章說，這個群體目前包括中國、俄羅斯、伊朗、朝鮮、敘利亞和委內瑞拉。
文章認為，這些專制政府普遍存在兩種恐懼：一種是它們對民主和自由的明顯恐懼；另一種是，這些專制政權對美國和西方的實力及影響力的恐懼。
實質上就是，西方的民主價值觀、特別是政府與社會的透明，給這些專制、壓制性政府的生存帶來了威脅。
《外交》雜誌指出，這些專制軸心國家在國內都面臨著民眾強烈的反對，也都對本國人民施以重壓。比如，俄羅斯就逮捕了一些反對派領導人；中國也經常逮捕或侵擾異見人士；朝鮮設立了造成成千上萬政治反對派死亡的集中營；伊朗向抗議者開火；敘利亞動用直升機、坦克和大炮對付政治反對派，致使多達一萬人死亡。
文章還認為，最近，專制軸心成員國越來越多的在外交政策上採取協調一致的行動。如中國和俄羅斯投否決票，使聯合國無法通過制止敘利亞政府殺戮本國人民的決議﹔中俄還一致反對加大對伊朗制裁力度等等。目前，這些「專制軸心」還加強了軍事協調，這都給亞太、印度洋與太平洋、歐亞大陸以及全球都帶來了非常明顯的影響。
不過，原紐約州立大學教授謝選駿認為，由於這些「專制軸心」國家沒有真正的共同目標，不能形成真正的聯盟，它們只是要求西方不要干涉他們的內政，以保護他們的專制權力而已。
原紐約州立大學教授謝選駿：「這些國家很難給國際社會造成真正的動亂，因為它們沒有可以取代西方的技術，他們沒有最好的技術，所以他們很難和西方構成真正的對抗。當然，他們的反西方傾向，可能造成一些動盪。」
「中國社會民主黨」中央委員會主持人劉因全也認為，「專制軸心」不可怕，因為他們沒有共同的信仰，只是一個利益共同體。當利益發生變化的時候，他們就會鬆散、甚至瓦解。現在就可以看出，中俄之間有矛盾、中朝之間也有矛盾，所以這個「軸心」並不牢固。
但是，劉因全指出，從國家和民族利益考慮，中國不應該加入這個專制中心。
劉因全：「對中國最有利的格局是甚麼呢？就是「遠交近攻」。中國應該和美國和歐洲建立密切的關係，特別是和美國建立密切的關係，包括建立密切的經濟關係，甚至軍事方面密切交流，在政治上盡量的避免對立，求同存異這個方面發展。」
劉因全呼籲建立「中美經濟互利體」，他認為這對改變中國政治黑暗和政治腐敗是有好處的，對改變中國高科技落後、「只是一個加工廠」的格局也是有好處的。而用戰爭和對抗的思路，還可能走回德國、日本的戰爭之路。
《外交》雜誌也承認，如果西方國家聯合起來，有效應對這一挑戰，也許會看到專制國家走上窮途末路。
採訪/常春 編輯/宋風 後製/鍾元
US Media: China’ & Russia’s “Authoritarian Axis”
A new term of “an Authoritarian Axis” was coined recently
by U.S. magazine’s article.
The term refers to a group of states which fear democracy
and freedom, the power and influence of US and the West.
These states are deemed to be on the wrong side of history,
and may bring turmoil to the international community.
Scholars think that the axis group is not faith-bonded,
but rather a fragile interest group.
Thus, it is hard for them to truly create unrests in the world,
comments say.
The Diplomat’s article “An Authoritarian Axis Rising?” talks
about the emergence of a new group of authoritarian states.
It isn’t the “axis of evil,” but “can only inject turmoil into
the international system,” according to the article.
The axis members reportedly include China, Russia, Iran,
North Korea, Syria, and Venezuela.
The author thinks that these authoritarian regimes
have “two common fears.”
“One is their apparent fear of democracy,
freedom, and liberty.”
The other is fear of “the power and influence
of the U.S. and the West.”
Simply put, “democratic values, particularly transparency in
government and society, put at risk the survival of these authoritarian, repressive governments.”
These states are said to “face serious levels of domestic
opposition” and “impose burdens on their own people.”
“Russia, for example, arrests opposition leaders”;
“China, likewise, arrests and hassles dissidents”;
“North Korea operates a vast network of concentration
camps,” triggering thousands of deaths, and millions who suffer from malnutrition.
“Iran fired on protestors”, while “Syria uses helicopters,
tanks, and artillery to fire on the political opposition, killing perhaps as many as 10,000 people.”
“Increasing foreign policy coordination among the axis
members” has been seen, the article states.
Such as China and Russia, both used their vetoes to block
the UN resolution against the Syrian regime’ killing civilians;
“Beijing and Moscow consistently oppose expanded
sanctions against Iran for its nuclear program,” it says.
And “in terms of military coordination, ties have run deep
for years” among these axis member states.
“This has obvious repercussions in Asia-Pacific/Indo-Pacific
and Eurasia as well as globally,” the article comments.
Xie Xuanjun, State University of New York’ former professor,
says that these axis members have no common goal, thus cannot form an alliance in real sense.
Through requesting the West not to interfere in their internal
affairs, these authoritarian regimes just want to ensure their own survival, professor Xie remarks.
Professor Xie Xuanjun: “For these states is hard to create
a real turmoil in this world, as they aren’t technologically superior to the West.
So it’s hard for them to confront the West countries in reality.
But their anti-Western trend may cause some turbulence."
Liu Yinquan, chair of Social Democratic Party of China,
thinks that the authoritarian axis is based on interests.
The non-faith based bond will soon be loose or even
collapse upon the change of interests, he believes.
At present, there are conflicts shown between China
and Russia, between China and North Korea.
So this Axis is not that solidly fastened,
Liu comments.
He points out that China should not join this autocratic pool
when taking into account its state and national interests.
Liu Yinquan: “What’s the best pattern for China? It’s to
“befriend with distant states while attacking those nearby.”
China should set up close ties with the U.S. and Europe,
especially the U.S., in areas of economy and even military.
It should try to avoid confrontation in politics, and take
the path of seeking unity while preserving diversity.”
Liu appeals to form “Sino-US economic Combo”, which will
help change China’s dirty politics and corruption.
The combo will be in favor of updating high-tech in China
and removing the label of “World’s Factory”, thinks Liu.
He warns, if China still resorts to war and confrontation,
the country will be led back to the road of war, which was experienced by Germany and Japan.
“If the West organizes itself to deal effectively with this
challenge, we perhaps might see the last gasp of authoritarian states,” the article suggests.
