【新唐人2012年7月6日訊】中國高增長的概念或許正在瓦解。美國媒體分析認為，由於銀行系統不穩、作為整個經濟體支柱的房地產市場即將崩潰，中國即將迎來一場盛大的硬著陸。美國華爾街做空大師查諾斯(Jim Chanos)對《巴倫週刊》說，如果說中國房地產市場即將到來的崩潰將達到迪拜泡沫的1,000倍，那還只是保守估計。
美國《華爾街日報》中文版轉載《巴倫週刊》「中國高增長神話即將破滅？」文章，文章提出，中國是否正在接近一個特殊的時間點，那就是，很多曾經高速發展的經濟體，在一個時間點，突然出現經濟減速甚至收縮的情況。
內容提到，中國今年國內生產總值(GDP)的增長率可能會降到8%，之後可能還會進一步大幅下降。文章中也提及中國經過30年平均每年10%的增長之後，中國高鐵速度一般的經濟增長正在大幅放緩。而貌似堅若磐石的中國高增長概念正在顯現越來越明顯的裂痕，這不由讓人想起25年前，當時日本經濟正繁花似錦，然而卻立即進入長達20年的低迷期。
對此，美國「紐約城市大學」經濟學教授陳志飛分析，中國經濟泡沫崩潰的嚴重性恐怕更甚於日本。
陳志飛：「但是日本進入衰退的時候它已經是一個世界的發達國家，而它已經在電子，在汽車各方面在全世界佔立了一個主導地位。現在中國的平均收入只有日本的1/8，中國經濟的技術含量上根本沒有達到日本的這種水平。」
陳志飛表示，中國的經濟衰退影響之廣，令人憂心。
陳志飛說：「我們知道中國一直在提保8，如果經濟增長低於8%的話，中國的職位、機會就要遠遠低於中國的就業人口，那麼就會造成很大的經濟問題，甚至是政治問題，那麼它的這種衰退從強度範圍來看，遠遠都要比日本所謂衰退20年，都要嚴重得多。的確是令人擔憂，對全世界的影響也會非常大。」
《巴倫週刊》文章引述美國西北大學(Northwestern University)政治學專家史宗瀚(Victor Shih)的分析指出，如果把中國政府的「直接與或然債務」，和「國有銀行系統、鐵道部等各類政府實體、國有企業和地方政府融資平臺的負債」，以及「國有企業交叉持有的大量債券」這三者加在一起，「中國政府債務」佔GDP的比重將再增加兩倍，達到150%左右，而且這個比例仍然在快速上升。
而中國銀行業面臨的巨大風險在於流動性危機，這可能會讓很多壞帳像散發惡臭的擱淺鯨魚一樣，最終被暴露出來。
惠譽國際評級(Fitch Ratings)估計，中國的全部銀行貸款中，大約有35%將承受中國房地產市場各種不確定性的影響。
而從中國各地堆積如山的空置高樓，可以看出房地產市場過剩的嚴重問題。
彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute)經濟學家拉迪(Nicholas Lardy)指出，去年中國大陸的住房建設對中國GDP的貢獻率為9.2%。相比之下美國在2006年房地產繁榮時期的這一比例也只有6%。在主要經濟體中，只有西班牙曾經達到過這個水平，而那正是在西班牙樓市崩盤前夕。
拉迪等人擔心，如果居住類房地產的銷量和價格大幅下降，中國經濟將有可能嚴重受損。鋼鐵、水泥和銅需求下降將使大量勞動者丟掉工作。
文章認為，儘管中國十二五規畫朝向以消費為主導的經濟型態，來重新平衡經濟，但勢力強大的特殊利益集團卻在阻撓這類變革。
畢業於「哈佛大學甘迺迪政府學院」，研究中國問題的張而平分析指出，西方國家是國貧民富，中國卻是國富民窮。
中國問題研究專家 張而平：「 6:59在美國雖然人家國家政府欠了一定的債務，可是人家的老百姓的生活是得到保障的，在中國正好相反，老百姓民不聊生，政府拿到了很多錢，這是中國現在的現狀。」
美國媒體綜合中國目前的各種因素認為，中國通過解決自身的各種問題，成功實現經濟高增長的可能性確實不大。
採訪/ 常春 編輯/黃採文 後製/君卓
US Media: China Before “Hard Landing Of Epic Proportions”
China’s notorious high growth rate’ trend
seems to be heading down.
The country is before “a hard landing of epic proportions,”
due to its shaky financial system and an upcoming collapse of its real estate market, US media analyzed.
Wall Street short-seller Jim Chanos told Barron’s,
that by a “conservative” estimate the coming China’s property market bust will be 1,000 times that of Dubai’s.
A recent article in Barron’s, titled “Falling Star,”
looks at the issue of China’s economy growth.
It asks if China is “nearing the point at which so many
high-octane growth economies suddenly decelerate or even contract.”
According to the article, China’s 2012 GDP growth
“could slip to 8%—and it may get a lot worse from there.”
After 30-years of averaging 10% annual growth,
“China’s bullet-train economy is slowing markedly.”
The “seemingly adamantine” “Great China Growth Story”
has shown “more and more apparent” cracks.
This reminds people of “the triumphalism extant
about Japan’s prospects 25 years ago just before its economy went into a two-decade funk.”
Economics professor Chen Zhifei,
from City University of New York, analyzes the issue.
The expert thinks that China would see a much more
serious economic bubble burst than Japan.
Prof. Chen Zhifei: “Japan was a developed country,
when it fell into a recession.
It played a leading role in many areas
like in the electronics and car industries.
Now China’s average income per capita
only accounts for 1/8 of Japan’s.
Plus, the technical aspect of China’s economy
hasn’t yet reached Japan’s level.”
The impact of China’s economic recession
is worryingly widespread, says the expert.
Prof. Chen Zhifei: “China has long touted
to sustain a growth rate of 8%.
If it fails to do that, the unemployment issue will be strikingly
highlighted, which will trigger serious economic upheaval, and political issues.
The recession’s intensity is much more serious
than the one of Japan 20 years ago.
It’s really worrisome,
and it’ll have a large global impact.”
The Barron’s article quoted Victor Shih,
a political scientist at Northwestern University’
He says that, “China’s government debt-to-GDP triples
to about 150% and is rapidly rising”
if all aspects of China’s state, government’ and
banks’ liabilities are added up.
“Peril for China’s banking system lies in a liquidity crisis that
might ultimately expose many of the rotten loans like so many stinking, beached whales,” the article states.
About 35% of China’s bank loans will be under the impact
of the Chinese real estate market uncertainties, Fitch Ratings estimates.
While vacant high-rises across China have proved to be
a serious overcapacity’ problem in its real estate market.
Peterson Institute economist Nicholas Lardy noted, in 2011,
9.2% of China’s GDP came from its houses construction.
This figure was 6%
at the peak of the US’ housing boom in 2006.
Only Spain, among the major countries, reached that level,
but this was before the country’s housing sector collapsed.
Lardy and others fear that the slumping of the selling
and prices of the residential real estate “could severely damage” China’s economy.
“A fall-off in demand for steel, cement, and copper would
lead to heavy layoffs,” they explain.
The article states, though the existing official five-year plan
is touted as consumption-oriented to balance the economy,
“powerful special-interest groups stand in the way
of such a change.”
Harvard’s Mason Fellow Zhang Erping,
an expert in China affairs, shares his view on the issue.
Zhang explains that Western countries’model is that
of poor government – wealthy populace, whereas China’s is just the opposite.
Zhang Erping: “Although the US government owes debts,
the lives of the ordinary people are guaranteed.
It’s just the opposite in China, where civilians
are undergoing hardships, while the regime is grabbing huge amounts of money. That’s the status quo in China."
“All things considered, the odds in favor of fixing China
seem long indeed,” the article concludes.
