【新唐人2012年6月19日訊】雖然之前有關軍隊高層要求在本屆全代會入常的傳聞一度沸沸揚揚，但從近期結束常委換屆的廣東、上海、重慶、四川、山東，還有之前完成換屆的陝西、海南、青海等各省情況來看，各省級常委中不但沒有政法委書記的位置，也沒有給軍方留下任何位置。
《博訊》網16號發表署名方子的文章說，「軍人入常本屆已經沒戲了」，之前的傳言引起了胡、溫關注，立刻召集各方大員了解情況，進行安撫。《解放軍報》也在12號發表《自覺在大局下行動》的文章，要求各級官兵正確面對職務變動，以大局為重。明顯針對「入常」傳言降溫。
文章說，政治局常委會及軍委內部磋商後，形成一致意見——軍人依然不入常委會，在政治局還是維持兩人名額，但可能擴大軍委委員名額，為60萬「武警部隊」增加一個席位。對於軍人入常問題，胡等人推到了下屆，而至於軍方的不滿，將通過做「工作」、壓制和換人來解決。
曾在山東任教的史學教授、「中國社會民主黨」中央委員會主持人劉因全認為，「軍隊高層謀求入常」的傳言肯定是軍隊裡面江派勢力放出來的，意在挑撥。
「中國社會民主黨」中央委員會主持人 劉因全：「徐才厚多次表態支持胡錦濤。但是，梁光烈一直沒有表態。我認為像梁光烈這種人，他有可能有這種野心，就是通過提出來部隊高級將領入常這件事情，挑撥部隊和胡、溫的關係，造成這種矛盾。」
《中國事務》雜誌主編伍凡也認為，這是對胡錦濤的一種挑戰。
《中國事務》主編 伍凡：「因為胡錦濤對薄熙來不敢強硬處理，所以軍人們看著你這塊軟趴趴的，那我就要出來提出更多要求，這裡邊就出來一個變數了，本來是沒有，現在他就要求了，我要參加政治局常委。現在問題就出在這裡。」
《博訊》的文章還說，對於之前發出「軍方入常」呼聲的人，調查出名單後，這些人必將遭到調換或退休。由於有郭伯雄、徐才厚等鐵桿的表態示忠與支持，胡、習、溫並不擔心被處理者造反。
劉因全對此表示贊同。
劉因全：「胡錦濤是應該處理了。因為這等於是用槍桿子來逼迫胡錦濤來給他們讓步。在這種情況下，如果再不出手的話，會有些危險，有些被動。我認為胡錦濤現在既然掌控了北京軍區、北京衛戍區和中央警衛團，就應該毫不手軟的抓幾個人了，這樣對胡錦濤會非常有利。」
劉因全分析，殺雞儆猴之後，就算梁光烈等人想發動軍事政變，也會卡在三個關鍵人物身上，就是掌控「御林軍」中央警衛局的令計劃﹔和北京軍區司令員房峰輝﹔以及北京衛戍區司令員鄭傳福，因為他們都是胡錦濤一派。
劉因全：「也就是說，中央警衛團和北京軍區，北京衛戍區，他們的實權都掌握在胡錦濤的手裡。這樣，即使像梁光烈這樣的人，在江派勢力的支持下要發動政變的話，他也沒有辦法成功。」
據了解，「軍隊入常」沒戲後，軍中各方勢力對軍委副主席位置的爭奪更加激烈。
採訪/劉惠 編輯/尚燕 後製/李若琳
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No Position for Military Officials in Central Committee
Previously rumors spread that China』s top military officials
will enter CCP』s Central Committee at its 18th National Conference.
After several provinces have completed reelection,
however, it shows that
neither the General Secretary of Politics and Law Committee
nor military officials will enter Central Committee.
Boxun website published Fang Zi』s article on June 16 titled
“No Position for Military Officials in Central Committee.”
Concerned about the previous rumors, Hu Jintao & Wen Jiabao
recently comforted military officials in different districts.
Liberation Army Daily also published an article on 12th titled
“Follow the General Plan”, asking officers and soldiers to accept personnel changes in the army.
This is clearly to clarify the rumors about military officials
entering the Central Committee.
The article said that CCP』s Central Committee and
Central Military Commission reached consensus that military officials not join the Standing Committee.
Political Bureau of the Central Committee will still
reserve two seats for military officials,
and Central Military Commission might increase a seat
for the 600,000 “armed police force.”
Hu Jintao and other CCP officials have postponed
the issue for coming leaders to solve.
They resort to pacification, repression and personnel change
to deal with the army』s discontent.
Liu Yinquan, former professor of history, moderator in
Central Committee of Social Democratic Party of China,
believes that rumors about military officials seeking position
in Central Committee must have been intentionally released by the Jiang faction.
Liu Yinquan, moderator in Central Committee of
Social Democratic Party of China: “Xu Caihou several times
declared support of Hu Jintao, while Liang Guanglie never did.
I believe military officials like Liang Guanglie try to raise the
issue of Central Committee membership to jeopardize relations between Hu Jintao and the army.”
Wu Fan, political critic and chief editor of Chinese
Affairs magazine, takes this as a challenge to Hu Jintao.
Wu Fan, chief editor of Chinese Affairs magazine: “Hu Jintao
dare not deal with the Bo Xilai episode with determination, and show the army his weakness.
Therefore, the military officials demand more than before.
There was no position for the army in the Committee.
Now the army is asking for more. That is the problem.”
Boxun article also said those who initiated the rumors will be
found out and punished by replacement or forced retirement.
With the support of Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou, Hu Jintao
would not worry about rebellion by the punished officials.
Liu Yinquan expressed agreement with Wu』s opinion.
Liu Yinquan: “It is time for Hu Jintao to take action,
since the army is now forcing Hu to compromise.
Otherwise Hu will fall into danger.
I believe Hu Jintao should now arrest several [officers]
since he is now in control of the Beijing Military Region,
Beijing Garrison and the Central Guards Regiment
That will bring him many advantages.”
According Liu』s analysis, after Hu』s punishment activities,
Liang Guang Lie and other officers wouldn』t attempt a
military coup because three officials—
commander of the Central Guard Bureau Ling Jihua,
Commander of Beijing Military Region Feng Hui,
and commander of Beijing Garrison Zheng Chuanfu
all support Hu Jintao
Liu Yinquan: “In other words, Hu Jintao is in control of
the Central Guards Regiment, Beijing Military Region, and Beijing Garrison.
Even if Liang Guanglie and other Jiang Faction members want
to launch a political coup, they would have no chance of success.”
It is reported that military forces have fallen into fiercer
competitions for Vice Chairman of Central Military Commission.
