【新唐人2012年5月28日訊】王立軍、薄熙來事件讓外界看到了中共內鬥的激烈和血腥，中共新一代領導班子計劃在不久後的十八大上亮相，促使許多人在思考，「動亂的中共」是否為中國和平轉型提供了最佳機遇？哪條道路更適合中國？最近有兩位中國學者分別出書，指出了中國走向民主的路線圖，以及為實現民主所應奠定的基礎。
資深憲政學者張博樹，在「中國社會科學院」拿了哲學博士學位，並在那裏做了20年的理論研究。但體制內容納不了他的獨立主張，他在2010年被趕出了「社科院」。
不過，張博樹繼續探索中國憲政改革之路，他的新書《中國憲政改革可行性研究報告》就是成果之一。
憲政學者張博樹：「400頁的一本書，做了很詳細的討論。如果最簡單的概括的話，那就是中國憲政的轉型，現在到了各方麵條件、各方面的情況很成熟，這件事情早就應該做了，而且現在是越來越有必要應該去做。」
張博樹指出，他書中兩個憲政改革最基本的要點，一個是，經過60年證明，中共現存的政治制度有很多問題，需要做體制性的根本變革，用符合現代潮流的民主制度來替代，這也是中國的根本出路所在；另一個是，轉型的路徑，就是通過「體制內外互動和合作」的方式，來實現中國的和平轉型。
張博樹認為，漸進性和平轉型風險小，不會引起大的社會動盪。
同樣剛出版了新書《大轉型-中國民主化戰略研究框架》的中國學者王天成，現在還在美國「賓夕法尼亞大學」法學院就讀學位，王天成對於中國體制改革的觀點不同。
原「北京大學」法律系講師王天成：「快速的變革更有利於民主轉型的成功，轉型的過程越長、越緩慢，發生動盪的可能性就越大。而且對於中國這樣一個國家來說，有民族分裂的問題尤其危險，它有可能導致國家的分裂。」
王天成指出，中共「6.4屠殺」後，很多學者尋找代價更小的、漸進式民主改革之路。但他認為，「漸進改革」是寄希望於「政府主動改革」，但中共統治集團主動選擇改革的可能性非常小。實際上民主轉型是靠壓力的，所以「漸進改革」不僅不現實，而且還對人們產生誤導。
王天成研究發現，過去30年中，有70多個國家民主化，其中50多個是通過非暴力抗爭轉型的，轉型後民眾享有更多的民主。而14個「自上而下」改革轉型的國家，現在多數還是威權國家。
王天成：「中國民主轉型問題的發生條件，只有兩種情況下會發生：一種是當統治集團承受不了控製成本的時候，社會越來越反叛；另外就是大規模的民眾抗議導致維權統治崩潰。」
王天成認為，現在中國的維穩預算超過軍費，說明中共政府壓力越來越大。當中國民間自發抗爭轉移到戰略抗爭方式的時候，就很可能會發生民主轉型了。而且中國經濟的增長也走到了盡頭，根據過去的經驗，每一次的經濟危機都使一批獨裁者倒下，中共政府難過的日子已經來了。
時事評論員張傑連也認為，「王立軍事件」揭開了中共和政法委罪惡的黑幕。從江澤民開始，「政法委」不惜以徹底摧毀社會的道德體系和社會風氣來迫害法輪功，有意讓「政法委」做大。現在「政法委」成為迫害全體中國民眾的最主要工具。
張傑連認為，要想人心回歸，社會恢復正氣，首先得把罪惡纍纍的「政法委」，包括江澤民、羅幹、周永康、薄熙來等送上歷史的審判臺，償還他們所犯的罪惡。
張傑連：「在這樣的局面下，其實後面要走甚麼樣的路，自然就出來了，中國社會的道路的答案自然就會出現。如果前面都不做的話，跳過這個階段去探討後面，只是一種學術研究的價值，但它不具備現實的需要。」
因此，張傑連認為，中國民主轉型前，首先要恢復民心和社會正氣。
採訪/秦雪 編輯/宋風 後製/蕭宇
China』s Democratic Paths
The Wang Lijun and Bo Xilai event showed that infighting has
intensified within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
A new generation of CCP leadership will be unveiled shortly
in the 18th National People’s Congress Meeting.
Many are thinking, “CCP unrest” may provide the best
opportunity for a democratic transition.
The question is, which path to democracy is more
suitable for China?
Recently, two Chinese scholars published books, laying out
a road map towards democracy for China.
Senior constitutional scholar Zhang Boshu, obtained his Ph.D.
in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,
and has been involved in theoretical studies,
there for 20 years.
But the CCP system could not tolerate
his independent advocate.
In 2010, he was expelled from the
Academy of Social Sciences.
Zhang continued to explore the road of
constitutional reform in China.
His new book, The Feasibility Study Report Of
Constitutional Reform is one of the outcomes.
Zhang said: “A book with 400 pages included a very detailed
discussion.
For short, various conditions and situations are
suitable for the constitutional transformation in China.
This should have happened long ago.
It is now increasingly necessary to get it done."
Zhang Boshu pointed out two basic points
of constitutional reforms in his book.
One is, after 60 years of practice, the existing political
system of the CCP has many problems, and needs fundamental changes.
In needs to be replaced with an institutional democratic
system in line with the modern trend, which is the fundamental way out.
The other path of transformation is, with “internal and
external interaction and cooperation within the system”, to realize peaceful transition.
Zhang believes the progressive and peaceful transition has
the smallest risk, and will not cause social unrest.
Chinese scholar Wang Tiancheng also just published a new
book, The Great Transformation – Strategic Framework for Democratization of China.
Wang is pursuing a degree in the law school of the
University of Pennsylvania.
Wang Tiancheng has a different view on China’s reform.
Wang Tiancheng, former lecturer of the Law School in
Peking University: “Rapid change is more conducive to the success of democratic transition.
The longer the process of transformation takes, the more
slowly it goes, the greater is the likelihood of turbulence occurring.
For China, ethnic separatism is particularly dangerous.
It may lead to splitting-up of the country."
Wang Tiancheng pointed out, after the CCP 『4th June』 massacre,
many scholars were looking for a less costly, progressive democratic road to reform.
But he believes, progressive reform relies on the
government’s initiative to reform.
But the possibility for the CCP to choose to
reform is very small.
Democratic transition should rely on pressure.
So progressive reform is unrealistic, and also misleading.
Wang Tiancheng found that in the past 30 years,
over 70 countries realized democratization.
Among which 50 were transformed through non-violent
protest, and people enjoy more democracy after the transformation.
On the other hand, there are 14 from the top-down
reformed countries, are still mainly authoritarian states.
Wang Tiancheng: “Only two conditions can cause
democratic transition to occur in China.
One is when the ruling group could not afford the control
costs, and the society becomes more rebellious.
The other is large-scale protests leading to
the collapse of the ruling."
Wang believes that China’s stability maintenance budget is
over military expenditures, showing the Chinese regime is under increasing pressure.
When spontaneous protests shifted to a strategic protest,
the transition to democracy is likely to occur.
China’s economic growth has also come to an end.
Based on experience, every economic crisis caused a dictator
to fall, the Chinese regime’s last days have arrived.
Commentator Zhang Jielian also believes the Wang Lijun event
opened the evil inside stories of the CCP and Political and Law Commission.
From Jiang Zemin, the Politics and Law Committee have
persecuted Falun Gong without even hesitating to completely destroy the moral system and social atmosphere.
They intentionally helped the Politics and Law Committee grow.
Now the Politics and Law Committee have become the most
important tool in persecution of the entire Chinese people.
Zhang Jielian believes in order to rectify the people』s minds,
to restore social righteousness, firstly we should put all
sinful members of the Politics and Law Committees,
including Jiang Zemin, Luo Gan, Zhou Yongkang, Bo Xilai,
on historical trial for repayment of the sins they committed.
Zhang Jielian: “In such a situation, the way has
naturally presented itself.
The answer to the road ahead for Chinese society
will appear naturally.
Without putting evil on trial, skipping this stage to explore
things in the next step, is just academic research,
but will not satisfy the needs of this current society."
Zhang Jielian believes before Chinese democratic transition,
we should firstly restore people’s minds and social uprightness.
