【新唐人2012年1月27日訊】美國總統奧巴馬日前發表大選前最後一份國情咨文，其中5次提到「中國」，都是有關對華貿易問題﹔並宣佈設立一個新的貿易執法部門，調查中國等國家的不公平貿易行為。海內外學者指出，美國大選年奧巴馬對華貿易姿態明顯趨於強硬，可能引發美中貿易紛爭加劇。
奧巴馬總統的國情咨文涵蓋了內政外交的重要議題，他承諾在創造就業、教育、移民、能源、醫保改革等領域採取行動。在美國失業率高達8.5%的情況下，振興疲弱的經濟是奧巴馬國情咨文的重點。
奧巴馬明確提出「經濟公平」的目標，他抨擊金融詐騙、政府法規陳舊、貧富不均等問題，宣佈將向富人徵收至少30%的稅款，並大聲疾呼，「如果把富人稅稱為階級戰爭，就讓他們說吧。」
共和黨總統初選的兩個領先者羅姆尼與金瑞契，批評奧巴馬是「左翼的意識型態」，還指出，高達7870億美元的經濟刺激方案失敗，而加重稅賦以及政府過度干預企業發展，結果是適得其反。
奧巴馬在國情咨文中5次提到「中國」，態度趨於強硬，他說：「為了給美國產品打開新市場，我們提出的針對中國的貿易案幾乎是上屆政府的兩倍，這樣做收到了效果。」
英國BBC分析指出，奧巴馬將尋求今年總統大選連任，這或許是他對中國措辭強硬的重要原因。「紐約城市大學」政治學教授夏明表示，中國議題是美國大選兩黨候選人的焦點話題。
夏明：「奧巴馬顯然第一大要務是振興美國經濟，他振興美國經濟現在關鍵是要製造就業，而製造就業也就是說美國的製造業必須振興起來，現在面臨一個很重要的挑戰就是如何應對中國的競爭，他通過貿易保護主義一些措施，同時在自由公平競爭的情況想對中國的保護主義進行施壓。」
奧巴馬宣佈成立貿易執法部門，制止中國等國家不公平的補貼出口產品，以及將侵權產品出口到美國。他舉例說：「我們阻止了蜂擁而來的中國輪胎，使一千多名美國人今天得以有工作。」
自2000年以來美國對華出口年均增長15%，中國已成為美國增長最快的主要出口市場。隨著中國通貨膨脹、工資上漲和人民幣升值，奧巴馬表示，現在在中國做生意越來越昂貴。
國際貨幣基金組織1月25號向20國集團表示，計入通脹因素，過去3個月來，中國已允許人民幣按年率計升值了19%，去年人民幣升值了8%以上。
面對中國經濟增長放緩，通脹高升，出口和製造業萎縮，以及歐洲債務危機，北京經濟學家馮興元等一些專家學者表示，2012年人民幣匯率估計會在提升中雙向波動。
馮興元：「中國的人民幣由於通貨膨脹這麼高，它本身就應該也有貶值的趨向，但是國際政治上它有這種要求升值的壓力，這兩種不同方向的合力，我估計人民幣還是會有所提升的。」
美國商務部日前宣佈，對中國出口的新能源風塔發起反傾銷調查。此前，美國已對中國木製臥室傢俱進行反傾銷調查，等等。中國則對美國通用等部分品牌進口車徵收反傾銷反補貼稅。
「中國社科院美國經濟研究中心」主任肖煉表示，受到國內壓力以及國際形勢的變化，奧巴馬對中國的政策已發生重大變化，美國戰略重心向亞太轉移，美中貿易等方面可能紛爭會比以前更多。
新唐人記者秦雪、李元翰、孫寧採訪報導。
Obama’s Policy on China: More Trade Disputes Expected
US President Barack Obama gave his State of the Union
speech before this year’s presidential race.
The speech mentioned about China five times,
all about trade related issues.
Obama announced to form a new Trade Enforcement Unit,
to investigate unfair trade from China, among others.
Scholars say Obama’ attitude on China is clearly toughening,
the US-China trade disputes may thus get more intense.
US President Obama’s State of the Union address
covers the important topics of domestic and foreign policy.
Obama pledged to take actions in areas of employment,
education, immigration, energy, health care reform, etc..
With 8.5% unemployment rate, revitalizing the weak economy
was the focus of Obama’s State of the Union address.
Obama clearly stated the goal of “economic justice."
He slammed problems like financial fraud, government’s
obsolete regulations, and disparities in wealth.
He announced the rich should pay at least 30% income tax.
Obama said, “Now, you can call this class warfare all you want.
But asking a billionaire to pay at least as much as his secretary
in taxes? Most Americans would call that common sense.”
The two leading candidates of Republican presidential
primary Romney and Gingrich, criticized Obama.
They called Obama’s words “left-wing ideology," and said
the US$ 787-billion economic stimulus package had failed.
Moreover, the increased taxes and excessive governmental
interference with enterprises’ development will be counter-productive.
Obama mentioned “China” or “Chinese” five times
in his speech, showing an attitude toward a tougher line.
He said, “We’ve brought trade cases against China at nearly
twice the rate as the last administration – and it’s made a difference.”
BBC analyzed that Obama will seek this year’s presidential
re-election, this maybe an important reason for his toughness.
Ming Xia, Political Science Professor, City Univ. of New York,
says China issue is a hot topic for US presidential candidates.
Prof. Xia Ming, “Clearly Obama prioritizes the revival
of the US economy, the key is to create jobs.
That relies on the US manufacturing’s revitalization.
So, it’ll face an important challenge.
How to deal with competition from China?
He passed some protectionist trade measures.
Meanwhile, he wants to press China’s protectionism,
for free and fair competition."
Obama announced to form a Trade Enforcement Unit.
This will help stopping unfairly subsidized and infringing
products imported from China and other countries.
He gave an example, “Over a thousand Americans are
working today because we stopped a surge in Chinese tires."
Since 2000, annual US exports to China have risen by 15%.
China has become US’ fastest growing major export market.
With China’s inflation, rising wages and RMB appreciation,
doing business in China is getting more expensive, he said.
On January 25, the IMF said that over the past three months,
RMB has appreciated by 19% at annual rate adjusted for inflation.
In 2011, RMB appreciated over 8%.
China is facing slowing economic growth, rising inflation,
shrinking exports and manufacturing, plus the EU debt crisis.
Beijing-based economist Feng Xingyuan and some experts
expect RMB’s exchange rate fluctuations to improve in 2012.
Feng Xingyuan: “China’s inflation is so high, RMB in itself
should also have a trend in depreciation.
But internationally, the political pressure requests
its appreciation.
Considering the forces from these two different directions,
I expect RMB will still show a trend of appreciation."
The US Dept. of Commerce announced anti-dumping
investigations on wind towers exports from China.
Earlier, the same probe has been carried out
on China’s wooden bedroom furniture, among others.
In contrast, China levied anti-dumping and countervailing
duties on some US imported cars’ brands.
Xiao Lian, director of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Research Center, expects changes for Obama’s China policy.
The US has shifted its strategic focus toward the Asia-Pacific,
thus more US-China trade disputes can be expected.
NTD reporters Qing Xue, Li Yuanhan and Sun Ning
