【新唐人2012年1月9日訊】中共總理溫家寳在1月3號對商界發表新年祝詞時警告說：「今年第一季度可能會相當的困難」。如今，諸多現象顯示：中共政權依賴生存和執政依據的所謂「經濟建樹」 已經開始幻滅，而中共的安全網也在寸寸斷裂。
去年10月，香港中文大學教授郎咸平在瀋陽演講時，一語驚人的指出，中國大陸的經濟實際上已經破產，只是帳面上看不出來。郎咸平說，中國的採購經理指數顯示，早在7月已經進入經濟蕭條，但是中共所有的政策，掩蓋了病入膏肓的真實情況。
郎咸平在瀋陽演講時說，中國70%的GDP其實是靠基礎設施的建設，但這些實際上是沒有經濟效益的﹔而中國真正的經濟支柱製造業如今卻出現了危機。他指出，在江浙地區許多產業的開工率只有30%到60%。
由於產業萎靡，中國的製造業面臨著倒閉潮和罷工潮。自2008年以來，東莞、珠三角、浙江、溫州、長江三角等地的企業紛紛倒閉。單單在溫州，2010年4月到10月間，就有80多名負債纍纍的企業主因爲還不清貸款而逃走甚至自殺。
美國紐約城市大學經濟學教授陳志飛指出，中國的民間企業經營維艱，是中共政策優惠國營企業，歧視民間中小企業的惡果。
陳志飛：「在經濟（2008年）蕭條之後，（中共）大力的扶持國營企業，雖然國營企業大部分是虧損的、破產的，他們還是把錢投到這些行業，來扶持他自己的、私有的、壟斷的黨產。而且對廣大的中小型企業採取打壓、歧視和在財政資助上各種限制的政策。」
2012年的第一週，中國各地已經掀起了此起彼伏的罷工浪潮，四川、廣西、江蘇三地甚至一天發生三起大型千人以上罷工活動。去年和前年，中國大陸的大型罷工運動遍佈了廣東、北京、上海、江蘇、重慶、山東、山西、甘肅、河南、湖北等多個省份，幾乎是有工廠的地方就有罷工。
陳志飛說，中共長期以來以廉價勞動力吸引外資、扮演的是不光彩的角色。
陳志飛：「中國政府和當局、中共製度在其中扮演的（角色）是非常不光彩的，實際上是把中國人民往火坑裏推，來充當壟斷資本廉價勞動力的角色，是惡老闆的這麽一個角色。」
如今這種壓迫政策反彈，物價飛漲，勞動隊伍開始要求工資上漲而演變成罷工潮，這個巨變使中國出現了外資製造企業撤退潮。摩根士丹利的數據顯示，過去10年中國勞工薪資每年成長將近12%。由於成本增加迅速，許多企業已經開始撤出中國。
除了面對製造業倒閉潮、罷工潮，以及外企撤退潮的「三潮」困境，中國的經濟還面對三個炸彈：股市、房市和信貸泡沫。
去年12月13號，上海滬指收報2248.59點，和2001年滬市大盤的最高點2245點相差無幾，引髮網民怨嘆：「中國股市10年漲幅為零」，突顯出中國股市泡沫的洩氣。
另一方面，中國的房市卻在10年裏漲了10倍，到了中產階級買不起的地步。然而這個畸形的泡沫也已經開始爆破。據中共國家統計局公布的數據，2010年9月份，70個主要城市中有46個房價停止上漲或開始下滑。
而股市、房市、民間企業經營維艱及倒閉潮，最終都和中國銀行的貸款有關。另外，中國地方政府的高欠債率也將加速貸款泡沫的爆破，大陸媒體報導，截至2011年5月，單單北京的土地儲備貸款就超出2500億元，處於破產邊緣，而很多地方也都面臨同樣狀況。
去年年底，中共政府宣佈在全國範圍內31個省和數百直轄市的審計結果，發現地方政府現負有價值1萬6千億美元的貸款。且高達20%的部分可能要作為壞賬被註銷。許多對沖基金已經開始做空中國。
中共的經濟危機已經成爲定局。本來，在危機時，美國、歐洲和日本三大經濟體都不會袖手旁觀，以免讓中國的危機拖垮自己國家的經濟。但如今這三個國家都處在自身難保的危機當中，恐怕在中國經濟硬著陸時誰也愛莫能助。
如果說「三股潮流」、「三個泡沫」是中共作繭自縛，那在中共發生經濟危機的前夕，先讓所有外援全部折翼，恐怕是上蒼的佈局了。
新唐人記者常春、吳惟、王明宇採訪報導。
China’s Economy Crisis Finality
On January 3, in New Year’s message to business, Premier
Wen Jiabao warned: “The first quarter can be quite difficult."
Many of the so-called “economic contribution" phenomena,
which the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is dependent on, have begun to vanish.
The CCP’s safety net begins to fracture too.
Last October, Prof. Lang Xianping at the Chinese University
of Hong Kong, talked in Shenyang about the economy.
He pointed out during his speech, that China’s economy
is virtually bankrupt, but this cannot go in the official books.
Prof. Lang said that China’s Purchasing Manager Index shows,
that China has entered recession as early as July 2011.
However, all CCP’s policies are such that they can cover up
the real ailing situation.
Prof. Lang pointed out during his speech in Shenyang,
that 70% of China’s GDP is from infrastructure development.
However, these are not cost-effective. Plus, the real pillar
of China’s economy, manufacturing, is now in a crisis too.
He pointed out that many industries in Jiangsu and Zhejiang,
have only 30% to 60% operating rate.
As the industry is sluggish, China’s manufacturing industry
is facing closures and strikes.
Since 2008, in Dongguan, the Pearl River Delta, Wenzhou,
Yangtze River Delta, etc., many businesses have closed down.
In Wenzhou alone, from April to October, 2010, over 80
heavily indebted businessmen fled or committed suicides.
Chen Zhifei, economics’ professor at New York City Univ.,
pointed out that China’s private businesses have a hard time.
Prof. Chen thinks this is due to CCP’s preferential policies
to state-owned enterprises and discrimination of private SMEs.
Prof. Chen: “During the economy depression since 2008,
(CCP) vigorously supported the state-owned enterprises.
Although most of them were in deficit or bankruptcy state,
they (CCP) still put money into these industries, as to support their own, private and monopoly party assets.
Regarding the majority of the small and medium enterprises,
the CCP suppressed them, and has policies of discrimination and restrictions on financial assistance."
In the first week of 2012, another round of the strikes’ wave
has launched in China.
Sichuan, Guangxi, and Jiangsu had three strikes a day,
each with thousands of people participating.
Last year and the year before, large-scale strikes took place
in many provinces and cities.
These include Guangdong, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Gansu,
Chongqing, etc., or wherever there was a plant, was a strike.
Prof. Chen said, for a long time CCP is using cheap labor
to attract foreign investments, playing a disgraceful role.
Prof. Chen: “The Chinese government and the authorities,
and the CCP system as a whole, play a very shameful role.
They are pushing the Chinese people into the fire pit, using
monopolized capital and cheap labor, acting as an evil boss."
Now oppression policies rebound, and prices rise fast,
the labor force demands higher wages and went on strikes.
The changes cause foreign manufacturers to retreat.
Morgan Stanley data shows that over the past 10 years,
Chinese workers’ salary grew nearly 12% per year.
As the costs increase rapidly, many companies have begun
to withdraw from China.
In addition to the “three waves" dilemma: manufacturing
closures, strikes, and foreign companies withdrawal,
China’s economy also faces the burst of the three bubbles:
the stock market, the housing and the credit loans.
On December 13, 2011, Shanghai stock index closed at 2248
points, quite close to its highest point of 2245 in 2001.
Netizens complain: “China’s stock market gained zero
in the past 10 years."
This indicates the deflation of China’s stock market bubble.
On the other hand, the housing market has gone up 10 times
for 10 years, so even the middle class cannot afford houses.
However, this deformed bubble has started bursting too.
Chinese National Bureau of Statistics data from September
2010 shows, that housing prices fell in 46 out of 70 top cities.
For the stock market, housing market, and private enterprises
was hard to survive and are closing down, all ultimately related to the loans of Bank of China. In addition, China’s high local government’ debt ratio
will also accelerate the bursting of the credit loans bubble.
Mainland media reported, up to May 2011, land reserve loans
in Beijing exceeded RMB 250 billion,
being on the brink of bankruptcy,
with many cities facing the same situation.
At the end of last year, the government announced its audit
findings from 31 provinces and hundreds of municipalities.
The audit showed that local governments’ loans
amount to US$1.6 trillion.
And up to 20% may have to be written off as bad debts.
Many hedge funds have begun to shrink in China too.
CCP’s economic crisis has become a foregone conclusion.
Originally, in times of crisis, the US, Europe and Japan,
would have helped China, as to avoid their economic collapse.
However, now they are in crises themselves, and might be
helpless when China’s economy faces the hard landing.
If the ‘three trends’ and ‘three bubbles’ are a CCP’s cocoon,
doesn’t cutting all foreign aid options look like Heaven’s hand?
NTD reporters Chang Chun, Wu Wei and Wang Mingyu
