【新唐人2012年1月4日訊】自朝鮮獨裁者金正日葬禮結束以來，平壤已經多次發表措辭強烈的譴責聲明，表示「永遠不會同韓國李明博政府交往」，並威脅報復韓國「限制民間弔唁金正日」。李明博指出，朝鮮半島局勢正在經歷重要的轉折點，但在隨之而來的改變與不確定中也將蘊含著新的機遇。
韓國總統李明博1月2號發表新年電視演說表示，目前的最大目標是實現朝鮮半島的和平與穩定，韓國仍為朝鮮敞開著「機會之窗」。
李明博說，希望今年能找到解決朝核問題的突破口，只要朝鮮中斷所有核活動，六方會談就有希望重新啟動。他同時警告，如果朝鮮發起挑釁，韓國將會採取強硬的應對措施。
朝鮮媒體則在新年社論中，突出了金正日幼子金正恩的唯一領導體制，表示全軍誓死捍衛金正恩，並再度要求駐韓美軍撤離，同時強調了「人民的溫飽問題」。
朝鮮去年新年社論中出現了「對話與合作」等柔和基調，而今年卻只有「韓方加強同族對決」等譴責內容，並再次猛烈抨擊韓方阻礙同胞弔唁。平壤聲明，只要李明博存在，南北關係就沒有任何希望。
「韓國東國大學」教授高有煥認為，朝鮮避免對美國造成不必要的刺激，表明瞭重啟朝美對話和六方會談的緩和姿態，同時顯示了意圖造成韓國內部矛盾的策略。
英國《金融時報》指出，今年韓國和美國的大選可能重新評估對朝鮮的政策，包括恢復對朝鮮糧食援助。韓國統一研究院高級研究員樸泂重﹙Pǔ jiǒng zhòng﹚表示：「朝鮮試圖在韓國下屆政府產生之前孤立李明博政府。」
新年前夕，朝鮮公布金正恩出任軍隊最高司令官，正式確認他掌控朝鮮120萬人的軍隊。中共領導人胡錦濤發去了賀電。
元旦當天，金正恩首次視察坦克部隊，要求做好隨時戰鬥準備，並特別選擇朝鮮戰爭爆發時最先攻入漢城的第105坦克師，作為視察對像。韓國《朝鮮日報》分析，金正恩此行具有警告韓國的意味，同時顯示金正恩接班體制穩定。
韓國《中央日報》引述「北京大學」朝鮮半島研究中心副主任金景一教授的話表示，如果朝鮮在金正日去世後發生混亂，受到最大損害的是韓國，因此朝鮮周圍的國家都不希望朝鮮發生混亂。
《路透社》日前報導，美國國會前高級專家尼克什說，朝鮮一旦生產出足夠的濃縮鈾，將只需一到兩年，就能在中程導彈上裝載小型核彈頭。
美國希望確認：金正日去世前，朝美間協議就中斷鈾濃縮換取食品援助，是否仍有效。為此，負責亞太事務的美國助理國務卿坎貝爾3號起訪問中國、韓國和日本。
「上海復旦大學」教授韓國朝鮮研究中心副主任蔡建教授表示，金正恩剛接班，而且在朝韓目前的僵局下，朝核問題難有大的突破。
蔡建：「金正恩的權力它在短期裡面，很難改變他父親的政策。所以在這個核問題上面，我想他一下子也很難作出過多的調整。至於六方會談能否順利召開，可能朝鮮在棄核問題上面，肯定也會很難作出甚麼巨大的一種態度上的改變。」
日本《讀賣新聞》報導說，北京會提前邀請金正恩訪問中國，北京外交消息人士表示，中國有可能在1月份對朝鮮進行糧食援助。有分析說，這是為了彰顯他作為朝鮮監護國的鼎力支持。
圍繞朝鮮半島局勢的外交戰正在激烈進行。《朝鮮日報》指出，金正日去世留下的空白使東北亞局勢變得撲朔迷離，朝鮮變數比以往任何時候大。
新唐人記者李元翰、王明宇報導。
Uncertainty as Korean Peninsula Relationship Drops to Lowest Level
As North Korea’s ruler Kim Jong-il’s funeral ends,
Pyongyang sends a strong New Year message to South Korea.
North Korea will “never [have] contact with South Korea,
Lee Myung-bak’s government”.
They also threatened South Korea with revenge for
“restrictions on private condolences to Kim Jong-il”.
South Korean Leader Lee Myung-bak stated that the Korean
Peninsula’s situation has crossed a turning point.
He also stated that it presents a new opportunity.
Lee Myung-bak gave a speech on Jan.2 saying his main goal
is maintaining peace and stability across the Korea Peninsula.
South Korea still opens the window widely towards
North Korea.
Lee Myung-bak said he hoped this year he can breakthrough
the North Korean nuclear issue.
As long as they stop all nuclear activity, there will be a hope
of restarting six-party talks.
Lee Myung-bak warned that if North Korea makes a
challenge, South Korea will react with a strong response.
North Korea state media sent a message, reinforcing
leadership of only Kim Jong-un.
It also stated that the army vows to defend Kim Jong-un
“to the death”.
The message also stated US troops should be removed
from South Korea, emphasising the issue of food shortages.
The New Year message in 2011 had a soft tone of “dialogue
and cooperation”, but this year it had the opposite tone.
It blamed South Korea for fighting with them and preventing
it’s people mourning Kim Jong-il.
Pyongyang declared that as long as Lee Myung-bak leads the
country, there is no hope between the two countries.
South Korea Professor Gao Youhuan believes that North
Korea is avoiding offending the US.
It indicates they want to restart the dialogue and six-party
talks, but are trying to create conflict inside South Korea.
British Financial Times highlights that general election’s in
South Korea and the US will re-evaluate North Korean policy.
This includes supplementation of food.
Pu Jiongzhong, Senior fellow of Korea Institute for National
Unification spoke on the issue:
“North Korea is trying to isolate Lee Myung-bak before
their next government.”
Before the New Year, Kim Jong-un was named supreme
commander of North Korea military.
This officially confirmed he was in charge of 1.2 million
troops. CCP leader Hu Jintao sent a congratulatory message.
On New Year’s day, Kim Jong-un made his first inspection
of tanks troops, requiring that they are prepared for battle.
He particular visited the 105 Division, responsible for taking
Seoul during the Korean War.
Chosun Daily analysed that Kim Jong-un’s visit shows a
warning message to South Korea.
It also shows the stability of the take-over process.
South Korea’s Central Daily News quoted Korean Peninsula
expert, Professor Ren Jinjing
If North Korea has chaos after Kim Jong-il’s death,
South Korea will also suffer heavily.
As neighbouring countries, they don’t want to see this happen.
Reuters reported on comments from Larry Niksch, former
senior expert for the U.S. Congressional Research Service.
When North Korea produces enriched Uranium, it could only
take one to two years before it had working nuclear missiles.
The US wanted to confirm before Kim Jong-il’s death that
the agreement between US and North Korea is still valid.
This agreement see’s North Korea halt Uranium enrichment
in exchange for food.
On Jan.3, Kurt Campbell, US Assistant Secretary for East
Asia and Pacific, is visiting China, South Korea and Japan.
Professor Cai Jian, Shanghai Fudan University commented
on Kim Jong-un take-over of power.
It is hard to make breakthroughs in North Korea’s problems.
Cai Jian: “It is difficult for Kim Jong-un to change his
father’s policy in a short time.
On the nuclear issue, it is hard for him to make too many
adjustments.
Whether six-party talks can run smoothly, maybe on
North Korea’s nuclear issue, it is hard to change.”
Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper reported that the CCP
invited Kim Jong-un to visit China.
Beijing diplomatic sources say China may supply food to
North Korea from January.
Analysts said that this highlights the CCP’s full support
of North Korea.
The diplomatic battle surrounding the Korean Peninsula
continues.
Chosun Daily points out that Kim Jong-un’s death has made
Northeast Asia’s situation complicated.
The North Korean situation is changing more than ever
before.
NTD reporters Li Yuanhan and Wang Mingyu
