【新唐人2011年12月21日訊】中共國家統計局調查顯示，繼10月全國城市房價拐點出現以後，11月份房價下跌的城市數量和下調幅度都在增加，拐點進一步加深。而社科院「社會藍皮書」指出，房地產業如果崩盤會對經濟造成致命的影響。
調查顯示，11月份中國70個大中城市平均房價連續第二個月環比下降，11月，70個大中城市新建商品住宅價格，環比下降城市增加到49個，較上個月增加了15個，價格持平的城市有16個。
中國社科院19號公布的2012「社會藍皮書」指出，房地產發展和地方經濟發展緊密相連，整個房地產業如果出現崩盤情況，會對經濟造成致命的影響，如何處理新形勢的問題成為推動經濟健康發展的關鍵階段。
美國「南卡羅來納大學」艾肯商學院教授謝田：「中國的房價上漲，一個是國家的壟斷，第二個是既得利益集團巧取豪奪，搜刮中國老百姓的儲蓄、血汗錢。現在房市下跌是中國資金鏈斷裂，就是說老百姓手中資金缺乏。權貴集團炒房價，但如果老百姓手中沒錢，終究還是賣不出去的。」
謝田表示，房價泡沫太大了，已經到了讓中國百姓負擔不起的地步。房價下跌可能讓老百姓更容易負擔一點，但是對已經買了房子的那些民眾，特別是剛剛買房不久的人，房價下跌可能使得他的房子成為負資產，等於他的頭款泡湯了。所以會引起他們的不滿，引發社會動盪。
謝田：「房價突然下跌很可能會帶來經濟的動盪，這是有根據的。因為中國賣出去的那些房子、建好的房子、開發商手中的房子、市場上的那些房子，都是貸款下，國有銀行大量投入基建金貸款的。這些房價一旦下跌，這些貸款變成呆帳的話，壞賬的話，會拖垮銀行體系。」
另外，經濟學者綦彥臣認為，樓盤經營不下去的開發公司跑掉了，政府不得不接手，這也加劇了地方財政的負擔﹔還有建築行業的下游，如生產鋼筋、砂石料等行業都會受影響。他還表示，房價下跌對社會有好處，讓貧困人看到買房希望，所以應該繼續下去。
綦彥臣：「樓市下跌很可能最受直接影響的是地方政府的土地財政，土地財政廣義還包括樓建設後、住宅建設以後一些交易方面的稅收，地方政府的收入受影響。」
事實上，從70個城市的新建商品住宅價格指數來看，從今年4月以來，平均環比降幅就一路下跌，到11月份達到0.19%，領漲房價的一線城市也開始全面下調。
謝田指出，中共政府非常擔憂房價下跌，一是擔心既得利益集團利益受損﹔二是擔心導致銀行和金融體系的破裂。但是，中共政府又不願意看到房價上升的過快，這會使得民怨、民憤更大。所以，中共在房價問題上進退兩難。
但謝田認為，中共對房價下跌無能為力，如果投入更多的錢，就會通貨膨脹，所以房地產進一步下跌不可避免。
謝田：「中國的經濟現在顯然繼續惡化，房地產泡沫應該迅速的破滅，所以，我估計未來的一個月，房地產價格下跌還會繼續下去。」
社科院的「社會藍皮書」同時指出，物價和房價問題，持續受到社會民眾的高度關注，被提及的比率高居第一和第二位。
新唐人記者周玉林、宋風、肖顏採訪報導。
China’ Property Decline: A Fatal Hit to Economy?
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) official data shows,
this November housing prices have dropped in more cities.
According to the 『2012 Social Bluebook』 published by CASS
(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences), the real estate’s collapse will fatally impact China’s economy.
The survey shows, in November, the average housing prices
dropped second month in a row in China’s 70 major cities.
The number of cities with month-to-month
decreasing new housing prices rose to 49, out of 70.
This is 15 more compared to last month’s figure.
In 16 cities housing prices remained flat.
『2012 Social Bluebook』 released by CASS on December 19,
states, China’s property development is closely linked to the local economy.
The real estate sector’s collapse
would have a fatal effect on the economy.
Thus, the issue of how to handle the new situation
becomes critical for the economy’s healthy development.
Professor in economics at University of South Carolina,
Frank Tian Xie analyzes the reasons.
Prof. Xie: “China’s housing prices’ soaring
stems from two reasons.
One is the monopoly of the state, the second is the vested
interest groups’ gaining predatory benefits from the populace.
The current housing price plunge is due to cash flow shortage.
That is, Chinese civilians lack money to spend.
The powerful groups push housing prices, but if civilians have
no money to buy, the houses will sit, unable to be sold.”
Prof. Xie said that the housing bubble is becoming too large,
beyond the limit of what the Chinese people can afford.
The housing prices’ drop may ease some of them a little bit.
But not those who have bought houses.
Especially new owners, prices’ plunge may turn their houses
into negative equities, thus wasting their savings.
That would incite people’s discontent,
triggering social unrests.
Prof. Xie: “A sudden drop in house prices
is likely to bring an economic turmoil.
Because many houses that were sold, that have been built,
and that are stocked up now for sale, are all in loans.
China’ state-owned banks granted massive amount of loans
for local infrastructure development.
Once housing prices fall, these loans will become bad debts
and pull down the banking system."
Economics scholar Qi Yanchen believes that many
property developers had fled due to operation failures.
Then the authorities had to take over,
which added to the local financial burden.
On the other hand, the construction sector directly impacts
its downstream enterprises, like materials’ suppliers, etc.
However, Qi sees a positive side in the falling house prices,
as it can give a hope to the not so rich to buy a house.
Qi Yanchen: “The house prices falling is likely to hit
most directly the local authorities’ land finances.
The local land finances in a broad sense
still include tax revenue from housing transactions.
So, local authorities’ fiscal revenue will be affected.”
The New Housing Price Index of 70 cites shows a steady
drop in the average month-to-month decrease since April.
In November, the figure reached 0.19%,
with a full-scale dropping starting in the first-tier cities.
Prof. Xie points out that the CCP regime is very concerned
about the house prices’ plunge.
Firstly, it is worried about the losses
of vested interests’ groups.
Secondly, it fears the aftermath will lead to the collapse
of its banking and financial system.
However, the CCP regime is unwilling to see a quick hike,
as it will fuel discontent amongst the populace.
Thus the regime is caught up in a dilemma on the issue.
Prof. Xie analyzes that the Beijing regime is helpless
in stopping the housing prices from falling.
Putting more money into it will only cause further inflation.
He concludes, China’s property will face further decline.
Prof. Xie: “China’s economy is clearly worsening.
The real estate bubble should burst soon.
So my guess is that next month,
the housing prices will continue to fall.”
The 『2012 Bluebook』 also states, commodities’ and houses’
prices are ranked as the top two concerns for people in China.
NTD reporters Zhou Yulin, Song Feng and Xiao Yan
