【新唐人2011年10月17日訊】香港親共媒體《中通社》援引北京外交專家分析，由於近期美國匯率法案等問題，導致中美衝突不斷，兩國高層往來很可能受到一定的影響，尤其是中共國家副主席習近平訪美之行，如今「氣氛堪憂，行程增變添數」。一些專家認為，習近平十八大繼位前景難料。
美國國會參議院10月11號通過了施壓人民幣升值的匯率法案，引發中共當局強烈不滿，隨後人民幣兌美元中間價連續3天貶值，被外界普遍視為是中方表達抗議的方式。
《中通社》分析，習近平何時訪美，成為中美高層互動的一個懸念，如何應對美國對臺軍售、中美貿易摩擦、亞太話事權之爭等議題，以及美國大選中可能升溫的指責中共聲音，都將考驗中共領導人。
《中國事務》主編伍凡：「那不是習近平個人能控制的。尤其十八大最終有沒有變動，甚至連他自己最後都被get out(出局)，都有可能，不知道的事情都會發生，或者今後2、3個月突然江澤民死了，情況又會發生變化。」
親江系的《多維新聞網》13號報導說，8月初的「北戴河會議」作出決議，整個十八大人事安排方案由習近平總負責，並與胡錦濤商榷決定；江澤民也出席了「北戴河會議」，並作為最高顧問將被諮詢全部人選。
香港《動向》雜誌主編張偉國指出，這是江派釋放的假消息。「北戴河會議」期間，正是江系太子黨被江澤民死訊、賴昌星被引渡回國和溫州動車慘劇搞得焦頭爛額的時候。
張偉國：「很顯然，這個就是江澤民、太子黨他們放出來的，應該是不符合中共的政治運作的機制。這完全是虛張聲勢，他做的了總顧問、管的了這攤子事情的時候，他根本就不動聲色，不用這麼出來，辛辛苦苦的，這麼大把年紀，拼著老命出來。」
江澤民9號強撐病體出席紀念辛亥革命百年大會，但卻衰老呆滯，步履蹣跚、需要攙扶。韓國《朝鮮日報》獲悉，江澤民當天出席活動，是習近平親自登門邀請說服的結果。
台灣《中央社》10號報導說， 十八大之前，江澤民健康欠佳，習近平接班之勢可能因此出現干擾。
張偉國：「問題是接班的權限，有多大的權限，能不能夠像胡錦濤一樣，國家主席、總書記、軍委主席一起接，還是說要把這些權力分開來。」
中共十七屆六中全會15號在北京召開。《博訊網》援引消息說，會議原本要討論廣東省委書記汪洋提出的「思想解放」，後來改換討論文化體制改革。
《動向》雜誌披露，汪洋是繼李克強之後團派推舉的第二號總書記侯選人。法國《費加羅報》形容汪洋是一位改革派人物，主張在經濟與中國民眾的生活中實施更加開放、更多自由、少些黨的干預。
張偉國：「由汪洋代表胡錦濤這個政治體系團派，出來競爭第一把交椅，隨著十八大的臨近，也許他的動作還會更大。」
《動向》雜誌指出，在中共高層中，習近平以老謀深算而著稱。習近平正在展開新的反自由化運動，他選擇的是以反右來增加自己的政治安全係數。
文章引述中共高層一位情治首長的話說：習近平「不是那種扛自由主義旗幟的人物，他絕對不會犯胡耀邦、趙紫陽那樣的錯誤，這不是我個人的觀點，是內部傳達的精神」。
深圳學者朱健國：「從習近平的風格來看，他還是更接近於薄熙來的『毛左』。如果習薄聯盟再加上有軍方的支持，那也可能來個翻天覆地的大倒退，全面回歸『毛左』，也有可能。」
美國《國家利益》刊物近期發表文章指出，在意識形態方面，習近平是個新「毛澤東」。習近平在處理外交事務方面是個狹隘民族主義者，而在處理國內問題時，更傾向動用警察來解決社會矛盾。
新唐人記者常春、李元翰、葛雷採訪報導。
Xi Jinping』s Succession Is Questionable
Anchor:
Hong Kong-based media, China News Agency（CNA）,
a pro-Chinese Communist Party (CCP), media company
quoted a CCP foreign expert as saying
that the recent U.S. currency bill, among other issues,
has led to the current ongoing Sino-U.S conflicts.
This bill could impact high-level exchanges
between the two countries. including warranting a visit by
Vice President Xi Jinping to the U.S.
Experts are saying that Xi Jinping』s succession
in the 18th CCP Congress is questionable.
Reporter:
On October 11, the U.S. Senate passed a currency bill that
exerted pressure on China』s RMB appreciation, generating
a strong reaction from CCP authorities, which included
three consecutive days of a lowered central parity rate
of the RMB against the U.S. dollar.
This is widely seen as an act of protest on the CCP』s part.
CNA is saying that the timing of Xi Jinping』s visit to the U.S.
is a suspenseful event between top-level officials of both sides.
Other issues on the table will be U.S. arms sales to Taiwan,
Sino-U.S trade frictions, the ongoing power struggle
in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as criticizing the CCP in
the upcoming U.S. presidential election,
all of which will test the will of the CCP leaders.
Wu Fan, editor-in-chief of China’s Affairs magazine:
“It』s beyond Xi Jinping』s personal control,
as personnel changes are expected to occur
during the 18th CCP Congress.
Even Xi could lose his position.
Many unexpected things could happen.
Perhaps in the next two or three months, Jiang Zemin will
suddenly die, generating yet another tenuous situation."
On October 13, Dwnew.com, a pro-Jiang clique media,
reported that in early August, the CCP』s Beidaihe meeting
passed a resolution stating that Xi Jinping would be in charge
of the overall arrangements of the CCP』s 18th. Congress.
Yet, Xi has to discuss everything with Hu Jintao
before making any final decisions.
The report said that Jiang Zemin also attended the meeting,
and would be further consulted
as the top advisor out of a list of candidates.
Zhang Weiguo, editor-in-chief of the Hong Kong-based
Trend magazine points out that the information
released by Jiang』s clique is not true.
The timing of the Beidaihe meeting happened to coincide
with a time when the princelings of Jiang』s clique
were deeply troubled by the news of his death,
Lai Changxing』s extradition to China, and
the Wenzhou train crash tragedy.
Zhang Weiguo: “Obviously, this was released by
Jiang Zemin and the princelings of Jiang』s clique.
This ploy is against the CCP』s political operation mechanism,
and is entirely false bravado.
Jiang would do everything quietly if he could act as
the general counsel, taking overall charge.
He did not need to do things as he did, at such an old age,
trying desperately to show up and be counted.”
On October 9, Jiang Zemin attended the meeting of
the 1911 Chinese Revolution Centennial.
Jiang looked aging and dull, shuffling his feet with two people
supporting him as he walked.
South Korea』s Chosun Daily was informed that
Jiang was persuaded by Xi Jinping to attend the meeting.
On October 10, Taiwan-based Central News Agency
reported that prior to the 18th CCP Congress,
Jiang was suffering due to his poor health.
Xi Jinping』s succession may be uneasy.
Zhang Weiguo: “The focus is on the limit and extent of the authority of
the succession.
Is it the same as that of Hu Jintao,
who occupies the positions of president, general secretary,
and chairman of the Central Military Commission?
Or will these powers be separated and divided up."
On October 15, the CCP』s Sixth Plenary Session
of the 17th Central Committee was held in Beijing.
Boxun.com quoted sources as saying that during the meeting,
the “ideological emancipation” brought up by Wang Yang,
the CCP secretary of Guangdong, was to be discussed,
but the topic was changed to 『cultural system reforms.』
Trend Magazine revealed that Wang Yang ranks second
in Hu』s side for general secretary, next to Li Keqiang.
The French newspaper, Le Figaro,
describes Wang Yang as a reformist figure
who advocates opening up and allowing greater freedom
and less interference by the CCP in the areas of economics
and civilian matters.
Zhang Weiguo: “Wang Yang represents the Youth League
clique led by Hu Jintao, competing for the top position.
As the 18th Congress meeting approaches,
he might be more active."
Trend magazine pointed out that top-level CCP official,
Xi Jinping, is known to be very wily.
Xi is launching a new anti-liberalization campaign.
Anti-rightist believe that Xi is trying to
secure his own political power.
The article quoted one CCP senior intelligence director
as saying that Xi Jinping “is not truly advocating liberalism.
He will definitely not commit the same mistake
as Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang.
This is not my personal view, but the spirit of
the meeting, which the public knows nothing about."
Shenzhen-based scholar, Zhu Jianguo:
“In terms of Xi Jinping』s personal style, he is closer to
the Mao-left, led by Bo Xilai.
If Xi and Bo becomes allies and gain the support of the military,
they would probably experience a major setback
or a comprehensive return to the Mao era.
It is also possible."
The U.S.-based magazine, The National Interest, recently
published an article pointing out that in ideological terms,
Xi Jinping is a new Mao Zedong.
Xi is a narrow-minded nationalist in dealing with foreign affairs.
He is more inclined to use the police to resolve social conflicts.
NTD reporters Chang Chun, Li Yuanhan and Ge Lei
