【新唐人2011年9月5日訊】世界銀行行長最近指出，中國經濟發展前景堪憂。與此同時，俄羅斯主流社會再次強調了對中共政治制度的摒棄，這使得長期以來備受詬病的中共政治制度與經濟制度危機，再度成為焦點。一批重量級的國際政治與經濟專家從不同角度對此進行了分析闡述。請看報導。
克里姆林宮的政治智囊，著名政治學者尼科諾夫，9月2號在莫斯科舉行的一場新聞發佈會上表示，很明顯，俄羅斯無法接受中共政治模式，俄羅斯更不可能再倒退回蘇聯時代。
俄羅斯的其他政治勢力對中共政治制度抱持否定態度。俄羅斯著名政論家和記者舍甫琴科早些時候還警告，中國可能重復甦聯解體命運。
中國政治學者秦永敏：「從歷史的角度上看，本來中國這個模式是從斯大林模式蛻變過來的，也就是一黨獨裁加上這些偽意識形態。那就是經濟上可以與世界接軌，搞資本主義，政治上還是要堅持一黨獨裁，堅持把權力掌握在自己手上，也就是搞專制政治。」
外界一直抨擊，中共實行列寧、斯大林模式的以黨治國，專制獨裁統治給中國帶來了貧富懸殊、通貨膨脹、官員腐敗等種種政治與經濟危機。美國《中國經濟》季刊的主編斯塔德維爾在他的《中國夢》一書中，把中國經濟比喻為「一座建立在沙灘上的大廈」，隨時有崩潰的危險。
最近出訪中國的世界銀行(World Bank)行長佐力克(Robert Zoellick)認為，目前中國經濟發展模式亟需改革。他說：如果沒有根本改變，中國會使全世界及本身經濟問題惡化和更不平衡，食物及天然資源價格更高、會呈現更多的環境損害、也更難應付日益老化的人口及過度仰賴海外市場。
中國著名經濟學家茅於軾進一步分析中國經濟政策方面的弊端，如中共政府和金融系統的債務問題，政府操控出口匯率，以及房地產泡沫背後的原因。
茅於軾：「房地產泡沫的背後，是幾個原因，最主要原因是投資管道不暢，收入分配不公，土地供給壟斷，這些問題不解決，房地產問題好不了的。」
茅於軾8月29號在他的博客上推薦宋懷常的著書《中國人的思維危機》，這本書指出，中共領導人在國家政策方針及制度上，思辨力缺乏，判斷錯誤，政策失誤，給國家造成了不可挽回的損失，給人民帶來了深重的痛苦甚至是災難。
茅於軾認為，只有保護了人權，市場經濟才能得到發展。
茅於軾：「中國現在這個市場經濟也是不完善的，他的原因歸根結底在政治上，市場經濟要求一個有人權的，也就是需要有一個人權的保護。中國的進一步改革，關鍵也在人權上，能不能沒有特權，因為人權的敵人就是特權，要有人權就必須消滅特權，所以中國經濟的前景就看我們能不能消滅特權，保障人權。」
政治學者秦永敏認為，中共的體制已經無以為繼。
中國政治學者秦永敏：「中共這個整個結構，基本上是權力結構，是和他們的金錢的結構一致的，那麼越到上層，掌握的財富越多，相反呢，工農大眾，當年幫他們暴力奪取了政權，現在從法律上，從制度上踩到了最底下，這種制度，當局當年煽動工農幫他們奪權，那麼今天他還想用這種制度來維持（統治），這可能嗎？這肯定是不可能的。」
秦永敏還表示，中國這種模式其實是一種專制主義的迴光返照，不管他怎麼掙扎，不管他拖延多長時間，歸根結底還是必須回歸世界文明主流。
新唐人記者常春、許旻、王明宇採訪報導。
Chinese Economic System in Danger of Collapse
Recently, the World Bank president pointed out that China’s
economic development prospects are grim.
Russia’s mainstream society once again stressed the rejection
of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s political system.
The CCP’s political and economic system crisis has been heavily
criticized for a long time, and is once again in the limelight.
A group of heavyweight international political and economic
experts analyzed it from different angles.
On September 2, Kremlin’s political think-tank, the famous
political scholar Vyacheslav Nikonov expressed
at a news conference in Moscow that Russia obviously
does not accept the CCP’s political model,
and much less will Russia go back to the Soviet Union era.
Russia』s other political forces also hold a negative attitude
towards CCP』s political system.
Russia』s leading political commentator and correspondent
Shevchenko had earlier warned that
China might repeat the fate of the Soviet Union.
Chinese political scholar Qing Yongmin:
“from a historical point of view,
the Chinese model is transformed from Stalinist model
which is a one-party dictatorship with these pseudo-ideologies.
That is, be in line with world economics y choosing Capitalism,
but adhere to one-party dictatorship in politics,
insisting on keeping authority in their own hands.
It is authoritarian politics. ”
The CCP has always been criticized for following Leninist and
Stalinist model and ruling the country with one party,
because the CCP』s authoritarian dictatorship brings to China
wealth gap, inflation, official corruption
and other kinds of political and economic crisis.
Chief Editor of American China Economic Quarterly Studwell
described the Chinese economy in his book “The China Dream”
as a mansion built on sand,
which is on the edge of collapse at any time.
World Bank president Robert Zoellick, who visited China
recently, thinks that the Chinese economy development model
needs an urgent revolution.
He said if nothing is changed fundamentally,
China will deteriorate and the whole world and
its economic problems will become even more unbalanced.
The price for food and natural resources will be higher,
and the environment will be worse.
It will be harder to cope with the growing aging population
and excessive reliance on overseas markets.
Well-known Chinese economist Mao Yushi analyzed further
the shortcomings of the Chinese economic policies,
such as the debt problem of the CCP,
the government and financial system,
the government controlled export exchange rate,
and the reasons behind the real estate bubble.
Mao: “There are several reasons behind the real estate bubble.
The main reasons are poor investment channels,
unequal distribution of income,
and the monopoly of the land supply.
If these problems are not resolved,
there is no way to solve the real estate problem. ”
On August 29, Mao recommended Song Huaichang』s book
“Chinese People』s Thinking Crisis” on his blog.
This book points out that CCP leaders lack speculative ability
in national policy and system.
Their errors of policy guidelines have inflicted irreparable
damage to the country, and have brought miserable suffering
and even disasters to the people.
Mao believes the market economy will develop
only if human rights are protected.
Mao: “The market economy in China is incomplete,
and that is because of political problems after all.
The market economy requires human rights.
That is, a protection for human rights.
The key point of China』s next step of reform
is also human rights;
whether we can get rid of privileges,
as privileges are enemy of human rights.
If we want human rights, we have to eradicate privileges.
So the future of Chinese economy depends on whether
we can eradicate privileges and protect human rights. “
Political scholar Qing Yongmin thinks that
the CCP』s system is unsustainable.
Qing: “The structure of the CCP is basically the structure
of power, which is in line with their money structure.
The higher level you are, the more money you get.
On the other side, ordinary people who helped them gain
the power violently, are at the lowest level.
The authorities use this system to incite people to
help them gain the power.
Now they want to use it to maintain their regime.
Is that possible? Definitely not.”
Qing expressed that the Chinese model is
authoritarianism』s death wish.
No matter how it struggles, no matter how long it lasts,
finally, it will return to the mainstream of world civilization.
NTD reporters Chang Chun, Xu Min and Wang Mingyu
