【新唐人2015年02月03日訊】近來一連串的事件顯示，中國的社會不安有上升趨勢。美國著名智庫企業研究所研究員歐世林（Michael Auslin），在《華爾街日報》評論指出，許多在美國的中國觀察員一致認為，中共統治中國或將進入了倒計時的「黃昏期」。專家建議，如果華盛頓不想被中共的「政治地震」搞得措手不及，從現在就應該開始關注這個問題。
2月1號，《蘋果日報》台灣版報導，中共教育部長袁貴仁之子、北京出版社教材中心總編輯袁昕，涉嫌運用父親影響力，讓自己旗下的12套中小學教材，全部審核通過，獲利高達24億人民幣。
1號，《自由亞洲電臺》報導，數千名內蒙古牧民抗議草場被中共當局低價強徵，他們在烏蘭花鎮舉行抗議遊行，警方展開拘捕行動，其中13人被拘留或傳喚。
1月31號，《明報》報導，中國絕大部分省份GDP增幅未達預期、人民幣接連跌停、全國GDP增幅創24年新低。中共喉舌《人民日報》卻以全版的篇幅，試圖論證中共搞經濟有一套，並為此大唱讚歌。有網友說，在當前嚴峻形勢下，黨報還敢這麼說，可見滿篇是謊言。
1月30號，中國大批訪民前往地方兩會召開的會場，找代表反映冤情，遭大批警力攔截。失望之餘，上千名的上海訪民決定集體上訪北京。
1月31號，《維權網》消息指出，為了阻止如潮的年底上訪，湖南地方當局採取維穩陰招，一旦發現某個訪民的親屬在機關單位工作，或者是擁有一官半職的話，就明確告訴訪民說如不息訪，紀委就要查訪民親屬的問題。
從以上的種種跡象來看，中國內部騷動或社會不安有上升的趨勢。
美國《華爾街日報》，最近發表了一篇華府智庫美國企業研究所學者歐世林（Michael Auslin）的評論文章。這篇標題為「中國共產黨的黃昏」，提醒西方國家關注中國的局勢變化，提早思考沒有中共的中國政策。
作者在文章開頭就寫著，「我不能給你它徹底終結的確切日期，但中國共產黨已經走入最後階段了。」
歐世林觀察到，中國權貴階層紛紛為自己和家人準備後路，甚至包括中產階級在內的有錢人，向海外轉移資產和移民的趨勢也十分明顯。
文章分析，中共黨內分裂嚴重，以及社會對執政當局的信心嚴重低落。中共領導人習近平近來的反腐動作，已經使得權力集中到極限。但中國正面臨著經濟放緩，可能導致中產階級生活品質滑落，任何潛在的大規模騷動都可能讓中共當局「短路」，面臨危機。
時事評論員張健：「我覺得現在中國的情況非常複雜，因為少數民族的問題，港澳臺的問題，然後在中國內部無法產生一個統一的聲音，習近平雖然選擇性的鐵腕式反腐，但是他並不能徹底根治中國的腐敗，因為中國共產黨它就是最大的腐敗根源，如果想徹底消除，徹底還政於民的話，那中共就要解體，這是他應該選擇的一條道路。」
日前，中共政治局也承認，中共內外正面臨極大危險。
時事評論員張健：「現在面臨的一個問題，就是中共必須要下臺，中共必須將自己的政權還政於民，讓中國人民（有）自由選擇自己領導人的權利，當這個權利實現的時候，那麼所有的問題都會迎刃而解。」
《華爾街日報》的文章最後強調，無論中共還有多少時日，人們都應該「站在歷史正確的一方」，才是明智的選擇。
採訪編輯/黃千容 後製/舒燦
WSJ: The Twilight of China’s Communist Party
The increasing unrest in the Chinese society is demonstrated
by a series of incidents.
Michael Auslin is a Resident Scholar
at the American Enterprise Institute.
In his Opinion in the Wall Street Journal, he referred to a general
agreement from China experts that China’s Communist Party
has entered its endgame.
He suggested that Washington should start paying attention
if it wishes to avoid being surprised
by China’s political earthquakes.
Apple Daily reported a shocking corruption case
in the education sector on Feb. 1.
The textbook material center editor, Yuan Xin, of Beijing
Publishing Group is alleged to earn profits as high as 2.4 billion
yuan through the approval and adoption of 12 sets of middle
and elementary school textbooks that he’s in charge of.
Yuan has used his father’s influence in the field.
His father, Yuan Guiren is the minister
of the Communist Ministry of Education.
Radio Free Asia reported that thousands of herders
in Inner Mongolia have gathered and protested recently,
against forced land acquisition and low compensation.
Police suppressed the protest and arrested 13 herders.
Ming Pao Daily News commented that while China is
experiencing lack of GDP growth in most provinces,
the devaluating RMB, and the 24-year low national GDP,
the regime mouthpiece People’s Daily spent a full-page on Jan. 30
praising the economic success of the regime.
No wonder netizens would criticize
the party newspaper is full of lies.
Jan 30 huge numbers of Chinese petitioners sought redress
of their grievances during the local Two Sessions
but only met suppression by the police.
In disappointment, thousands of Shanghai petitioners
decided on a collective petition in Beijing.
Chinese Human Rights Defenders reported Hunan provincial
authorities have launched a new strategy
to maintain stability recently.
In order to stop waves of petitions before Chinese New Year,
petitioner’s relatives in the government or public sectors
will be investigated by the disciplinary sector, if the petitioner
does not immediately stop the complaints.
All of the above only reflects part
of the rising social unrest in China.
Michael Auslin, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute
in Washington, D.C. recently published his Opinion in WSJ.
In his article entitled, “The Twilight of China’s Communist Party,"
Auslin reminded Washington to start paying attention
and engage in strategies to deal with a post-Communist China.
He cited, “I can not give you a date when it will fall,
but China’s Communist Party has entered its endgame."
He wrote, “The elite hold foreign passports for their families,
and wealth is being transferred offshore through real estate
holdings and other means."
He analyzed the internecine war within the party
and the cynical and disenchanted Chinese.
He wrote, “The clearest manifestation of Mr. Xi’s power is
the unprecedented crackdown on corruption."
But, “Faced with an economic slowdown that may impact
the living standards of the middle class,
Mr. Xi is short-circuiting any potential large-scale unrest."
Commentator Zhang Jian: “I think the situation in China now
is very complicated, the lack of a unified voice on issues
such as the minorities, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan
and so forth.
Xi Jinping selectively targeted his iron-fist on fighting
corruption, but that won’t eradicate corruption in China.
The Chinese Communist Party is the root cause of corruption.
To eliminate the corruption, to return governance
to the people, the disintegration of the CCP is a must.
This is the path he should choose."
Recently, the CCP Politburo also acknowledged that
the CCP is facing great danger internally and externally.
Zhang Jian: “The real issue is the CCP has to step down,
the CCP must give the government back to the people,
let the Chinese people freely choose their own leaders.
All the problems will only get resolved
when people’s rights are realized."
At the end of the Opinion, it is emphasized,
“The endgame in China may not come for years.
But being on the right side of history,
no matter how messy it turns out, is the wise play."
Interview & Edit/Huang Qianrong Post-Production/ShuCan