【新唐人2015年01月05日訊】新年前夜，上海外灘發生踩踏慘禍，在各界問責上海當局之際，前中共黨魁江澤民在海南「東山嶺」匆匆露面，但相關報導很快被刪除。外界分析，上海踩踏事件，令江派上海幫面臨失守困境，會招致中共現任黨魁習近平的更猛烈整肅，上海官場很可能會出現大地震。下面請看本臺記者的報導。
3號，大陸一些門戶網站及海外中文媒體，轉載了一則來自微信用戶「海南東山嶺微信號」的消息，稱江澤民一家在海南萬寧市的東山嶺景區露面。圖片顯示，江澤民臉上的老人斑非常明顯，走路需要人攙扶，並以高爾夫球車代步。
值得關注的是，就在江澤民露面前不久的12月31號夜間，江澤民派系的「老巢」上海剛剛出現重大踩踏事故，造成至少36人死亡的慘劇。各界要求江派地方大員－－上海市委書記韓正、市長楊雄下臺謝罪的呼聲不斷，江派時刻面臨「城門失守」的困境。
中國問題獨立評論員李善鑒：「這個契機、這麼一個機會，習近平不會把它放過去。通過這個事情整肅一批上海的官員，我覺得是順理成章的事情。」
上海外灘慘劇發生後，中共國家主席習近平在第一時間表示「嚴重關切」，黨媒也迅速刊出文章，聲稱「管理部門難辭其咎」，並追問《外灘踩踏事故問責要問到哪？》。各界輿論普遍認為，韓正、楊雄等上海主要官員將被問責，並由此引發上海官場大地震。
微博用戶「菩提路上的贛稀」更發佈消息說：習近平已召集中辦、中組部、政法委、中紀委，進行了碰頭會。上海班子將受到嚴歷責罰，免職人員不少於10人，市委書記、市長都將被拿下。同時在上海跟進反腐，會有可觀人員被法辦。消息還說：一場風暴即將登陸上海灘。
雖然目前還無法證實上述消息的真實性，但恰恰在此時，江澤民被人攙扶著出現在海南東山嶺。
李善鑒：「其實如果根據過去的經驗來看的話，就非常說明問題。就是說明：他又是到了一個很不利、很危機的這麼一種狀態，所以他不得不又想辦法弄點動靜出來。」
另外，據時事評論員邢天行分析，江澤民選擇在東山嶺露面有一個寓意，就是「東山再起」。微博信息顯示，江澤民曾對陪同的海南省委書記羅保銘號稱：「要大力宣傳」東山嶺。
時事評論員邢天行：「也就是說，他希望江家勢力、江派餘孽能夠再東山再起。（但）實際上是不可能了，因為它已經是紛紛在塌陷了。它有那個實力的話，也不至於到今天這個地步。」
邢天行談到，目前江澤民在大勢已去的危機之下內心非常空虛，但又不甘心被清算，於是試圖通過拚命露面的方式來尋求自我安慰，從江澤民游東山時的故意大聲講話等言行就可看出，他的精神已經處於類似癲狂的狀態。
邢天行：「他應該是預感到了反腐的箭是步步的越來越靠近他了。如果上海再失守的話，他的外依就更加沒有了。」
自習近平陣營強力反腐以來，薄熙來、周永康、徐才厚等眾多江派高官紛紛落馬。為了給江派殘餘人馬打氣，江澤民不斷四處露面，試圖彰顯自己的影響力，但幾乎每次露面都遭到習近平陣營的封殺。江澤民這次的海南露面也不例外，雖然一些頗具江派背景的陸媒和海外中文媒體轉發了這一微信消息，但很快遭到刪除。
此外，上海踩踏慘劇之後的第二天，大陸《財新網》轉載一篇文章《28年前，我們有一場同樣的痛》。這篇文章回憶了1987年12月10號，上海陸家嘴曾發生的另一場嚴重踩踏事故。這場事故造成66人死亡，文中直接點明：當時任職上海市委書記的正是江澤民。
外界猜測，2015年伊始，延續至今的「打江」大戲，有可能將首先在上海掀起一場風暴。
採訪/陳漢 編輯/李謙 後製/舒燦
A Storm Is Approaching Shanghai: Reports of Jiang Zemin’s Hurried Public Appearances Were Silenced in Media
A stampede accident occurred in Shanghai
on New Year’s Eve.
Many people demand that the municipal government
be held accountable for the tragedy.
At this point, former Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
president Jiang Zemin hurriedly made a public appearance
at Dongshan Mountain in Hainan Province.
However, relevant reports were quickly removed
on the Internet.
Analysts say that after the stampede accident in Shanghai,
Jiang Zemin’s faction is losing ground at its final stronghold.
Jiang’s desperate struggle will only result in a stronger
counterstrike from Xi Jinping.
Therefore an earthquake is likely to occur
in Shanghai politics.
Let’s look at the following report.
On Jan. 3, some mainland portal websites and overseas
Chinese media reported messages posted by WeChat user
“Hainan Dongshan Mountian WeChat Update".
The message said Jiang Zemin’s family made an appearance
at the scenic Dongshan Mountain, Wanning City,
Hainan Province.
The attached photos clearly showed Jiang’s age on his face.
In addition, Jiang had to be assisted when walking
or he had to sit in a golf cart.
The key point is right ahead of Jiang’s appearance,
on New Year’s Eve, a serious stampede accident occurred
in Shanghai, which is regarded as the home base
of Jiang’s faction.
At least 36 died in the accident.
Consequently, Shanghai CCP secretary Han Zheng,
a follower of Jiang, faced heavy criticism.
Many demanded that Han and Shanghai mayor Yang Xiong
be held accountable and step down.
Jiang’s faction is losing its final stronghold.
Li Shanjian, independent commentator on China affairs:
“Xi Jinping will not let such a good opportunity get away.
He will take a chance to punish
a group of Shanghai officials.
I think this is a natural result."
After Shanghai’s stampede tragedy, CCP president Xi Jinping
immediately responded by saying he is, “paying close
attention" to the accident.
Party mouthpieces also quickly reacted by saying
“the authority can hardly absolve themselves",
and published articles entitled, “Who Should Be Held
Accountable for the Accident?"
Many media reports were thus convinced that Han Zheng,
Yang Xiong and other key Shanghai officials
would be punished, and an earthquake in Shanghai’s
political circles would follow.
Weibo user “Ganxi on Bodhi Road" said Xi Jinping held
a meeting with the CCP’s General Office,
Organization Department, Politics and Law Commission
and Discipline Inspection Commission.
Shanghai’s leader group will face severe punishment.
More than 10 key officials will be dismissed,
including the party secretary and the major.
In the meantime, Shanghai will start an anti-corruption
campaign in which a considerable amount of officials
will likely be punished.
The message concluded with,
“A storm is approaching Shanghai."
Currently, the information that was leaked on Weibo
is unconfirmed.
But Jiang Zemin showed up at this point in Hainan,
even though he could not walk by himself.
Li Shanjian: “This is clear signal if we have learned
from past experience.
Jiang’s act suggests that he is again in a critical situation.
Therefore he had to find a way to make some noise
with a public appearance."
Another public commentator Xing Tianxing says
Jiang Zemin chose to show up at a place called Dongshan
Mountain, because there is a Chinese idiom which says,
“Stage a Comeback from Dongshan."
Weibo reports revealed that during his visit,
Jiang told Hainan party secretary Luo Baoming to,
“trumpet Dongshan Mountain" in the future.
Xing Tianxing: “So we can see Jiang expects his faction
to stage a comeback.
This is already impossible as the whole faction is collapsing.
If there is any actual strength left, Jiang would not fall
into such a crisis."
Xing Tianxing commented that Jiang Zemin was feeling
extremely nervous in the hopeless situation,
but he still refused to surrender.
Finally what he could do was make public appearances
as self-consolation.
Reports say Jiang intentionally spoke loudly
during his Dongshan visit.
If this is true, Jiang is probably has a lunatic’s mental state,
said Xing.
Xing Tianxing: “He probably smells the approaching arrow
of anti-corruption.
If he loses ground in Shanghai, then there is nothing left
for him to rely on."
Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign has resulted in the fall
of many key members of Jiang’s faction, including Bo Xilai,
Zhou Yongkang and Xu Caihou.
To pump up his remaining followers, Jiang made
public appearances here and there in an attempt to
“show his power and strength."
However, all his shows were blocked by Xi Jinping
in media reports, and the Hainan visit was no exception.
Jiang’s visit was reported by some Mainland and overseas
media to be linked with Jiang’s faction.
But all reports were removed soon afterwards.
In addition, the day after the Shanghai stampede,
Caixin (caixin.com) forwarded an article titled,
“We Had the Same Pain 28 Years Ago."
The article recalled another stampede accident which
caused 66 deaths on Dec. 10, 1987 at Lujiazui in Shanghai.
The article directly mentioned that Jiang Zemin
was Shanghai’s party secretary at that time.
At the beginning of 2015, many are already expecting
to see a storm in Shanghai, as part of the battle to eliminate
Jiang Zemin and his followers.
Interview/ChenHan Edit/LiQian Post-Production/ShuCan