【新唐人2014年06月19日訊】中國房地產開發商為了實現今年的銷售目標，今年第三季度或許被迫大幅降價。截至5月初，北京新建商品住宅的「庫存量」突破7萬套，上海新建商品住宅的存量為65987套，合計面積1026萬平方米，存量同樣維持在歷史高位。而廣東深圳的庫存也罕見的突破了5萬套。

今年前五個月，很多房產開發商達不到30%的銷售目標。國家統計局上週五表示，1-5月中國商品房銷售額同比下降8.5%。

「北京大學光華管理學院」博士生導師王建國表示，因為市場對房地產的未來是看淡的，目前中國大陸基本上沒有對房地產投資的需求。

北京大學光華管理學院博士生導師王建國：「就只有極少部分剛需的，一般有剛需的都是收入比較低，很難有錢去買比較高價的房子。就我現在所看到的，以前每天都是打電話問我賣不賣房子，現在接到電話都說你買不買房子。」

而全中國的商品房銷售價格也在持續下跌，1-5月份，中國的商品房和住宅銷售平均價格，同比繼續下跌，跌幅分別為0.7%和1.2%。根據中國房地產指數系統—-「百城價格指數」，5月100個城市的住宅平均價格，環比首次出現下跌，跌幅為0.32%。

中國十大房地產企業之一「恆大地產」，上月初宣佈降價15%。英國《路透社》分析，為了實現今年的銷售目標，今年第三季度,中國房地產開發商或許被迫大幅降價，和大範圍促銷或改變發展戰略。

大陸經濟評論家「牛刀」指出，今年9月後，中國樓市第一把斷頭刀，可能會開始開鍘，而一線城市會成為開鍘的首選城市。

大陸經濟評論家牛刀：「中國這個泡沫太大了，哪個城市都有泡沫，不是說泡沫就發生在某一個城市，它是貨幣問題，它印鈔印多了，印多了以後這些錢大多跑到這個房地產上去了，所以房地產價格特別高，那現在這些資金在出逃，出逃以後它肯定現在要賣掉房地產的，沒甚麼人接盤，大家都降低價格賣嘛。當人民幣在升值的時候，人民預期房價還要漲，所以全部衝進房地產，現在人民幣在開始貶值，貶值一看，好多人就退出來了，房價肯定要跌。」

另一方面，儘管前一陣中共央行，要求各商業銀行及時發放審批和發放個人住房貸款，但房地產整體資金來源的增速還是繼續放緩，定金及預付款同比降幅擴大，今年1-5月份，房地產開發企業總資金來源合計46728億元，同比增長3.6%，增速則持續回落。其中國內貸款和自籌資金同比增幅明顯，利用外資同比繼續大幅下降。

目前，很多房地產開發商，已經採取送裝修和停車位等促銷手段吸引買家。中國最大型的民營房地產開發商之一「綠城中國」，推出了新一輪促銷，向現有客戶分發總計300億元的現金券，用於下次購房。

陝西西安市民王蘭：「我們這塊有一個經濟適用房的開放區，它的樓盤是到明年上半年才能完成施工，但是它現在已經開始在各個小區門口擺個桌子，塔個帳篷大量的散發傳單，就說只要是本地人都可以買，雖然也要開一些證明，但這些證明都是走形式的，它都可以幫你開。」

陝西西安市民王女士透露，經濟適用房屬於國家福利房，往年即使條件符合，也需要關係才能申請到，今年這種大面積的促銷，她認為是房市降價的標誌。

採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/陳建銘

Chinese Real Estate Sales Could Dive In Third Quarter

In order to meet target sales, Chinese real estate developers

may be forced to take deeper price cuts.

As of early May, Beijing had an inventory of more than

70,000 new commodity houses, Shanghai 65,987.

That was a total of 10.26 million square meters of area,

a new record high.

Inventory in Shenzhen was also high, more than 50,000.

Many Chinese property developers achieved less than 30%

of their target sales in the first five months.

China’s revenues from property sales dropped 8.5% in the first

five months year on year, said the National Bureau of Statistics

on Friday.

Professor Wang Jianguo of Guanghua School of Management,

Peking University, indicates the real estate market is down

due to a lack of demand.

Wang Jianguo: “There are only immediate demands by mostly

lower income people.

They typically won’t be able to afford higher price housing.

As I know well, people used to call me and ask if there’s

any house for sale. Now, they ask if there’s a need for housing."

The property sale prices have also continued to fall.

Between January and May, the average sale prices

of commercial and residential have dropped year on year,

by 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively.

According to 100 City Price Index Report, the average

residential houses prices of 100 cities have dropped month

on month for the first time, by 0.32%.

One of China’s top ten real estate companies, Evergrande Real

Estate, announced a 15 percent price cut early last month.

Reuters analyzed, Chinese property developers may be forced

to embrace steeper price cuts, broader promotions or a change

in strategy in the third quarter as they scramble to meet

2014 sales targets.

Economic commentator Niu Dao predicts the first guillotine’

may take effect this September targeting the first-tier cities.

Niu Dao: “This bubble is too big. The bubble exists in every

city in China. It won’t target one particular city.

It is a problem of currency.

Too much money printing has ended up in real estate,

and brought up the prices of real estate.

Now that these funds are fleeing, the property has to be sold.

But no one will buy it, because everyone is cutting prices.

When the yuan was good, people rushed into real estate

expecting prices to go up.

Now with the yuan down, many people quit the real estate

market. Property prices are sure to fall."

Before, the Chinese Central Bank had required timely

approval and issuance of housing loans to all commercial banks,

real estate funding sources continue to experience slow growth.

The year on year decline in deposits and prepayments continues.

For the first 5 months this year, total funding for property

development was more than 4.6 trillion yuan, an increase

of 3.6% from last year, however, the growth rate continued

to fall.

In which, apparent growth was seen in domestic lending

and self-financing, while foreign investment declined sharply

year on year.

At present, many developers try to attract buyers with

promotions such as free remodeling and free parking space.

China’s largest private property developer, Greentown China,

launched a new round of promotion.

A total of 30 billion yuan of coupons good for the next purchase

will be distributed to existing customers.

Wang Lan, Xi’an citizen:There was a piece of open area

for affordable housing.

The construction will not be ready until next year.

But they have already started with a booth distributing flyers

stating any locals are qualified to purchase.

Proven documents are needed, of course, but, it’s just a

formality. They can help you to get approval.

Ms. Wang reveals that the affordable housing is part of the

state welfare.

In the past, even qualified buyers needed to go through

connections to apply.

This large promotion is to her an indication of falling prices.

Interview & Edit/LiYun Post-Production/Chen Jianming