【新唐人2014年05月26日訊】最近，外界對大陸房地產市場健康狀況，發出的警示之聲越來越大，國外評估公司將中國房地產業的展望，從穩定調整到了負面。專家指出，當局霸佔了中國的土地，和開發商串通一氣，壟斷中國的房價和市場，高喊限制購房，讓民眾產生稀缺心理的同時，不斷的推高房價，如今能夠裝下超過全球一半人口的房子，已經成為引發中國經濟崩潰和動亂的火藥庫。
美國「穆迪」投資服務公司21號宣佈，將中國房地產業展望，從「穩定」調整為「負面」。「穆迪」預計，未來12個月，中國的房地產銷售將大幅放緩。
截至4月底，「穆迪」跟蹤的8個一、二線城市房地產銷售庫存，接近此前的高點。在展望期內，這些「高庫存」將削弱開發商的定價能力，對運營資本和利潤率也會產生壓力。「穆迪」注意到，房地產的建設支出、土地款項及境外債券到期，也在減少開發商持有的現金量。
美國《華爾街日報》報導說，房地產商從影子銀行高利率貸款，就連最大的開發商也受到了衝擊。中國收入第二的開發商——「恆大」地產集團，過去四年在海外債券市場募款幾乎毫不費力，但今年，「恆大」在影子銀行系統大舉借貸。美國「渣打」銀行估計，「恆大」地產通過影子銀行系統融資的利率為10%至12%。而「恆大」去年還發行了40億美元的永久債券，比現有債務成本還要高得多。除去永久債券，「恆大」地產債務去年增長81%，達到人民幣1,088億元。
北京清華大學經濟管理學院教授楊斌：「10%的本金貸出8、90%都有，後面融資的錢還前面的人，他(房地產商)就極力維持資金鏈不斷，怎麼辦呢，他就以更高的利息吸引資金，資金鏈不斷，他就撐著，斷了他就跑路了，國內這種融資手段，基本上是全面的旁氏騙局。」
2011年以來，各地頻頻出現房地產商跑路現象，去年下半年，光湖南長沙一地就出現6起一房多賣、捲款跑路事件。山東青島「君利豪集團」老闆扔下12億欠款，跑得無影無蹤，河北唐山一家房地產商扔下13億欠款跑了，害得投資者服毒自殺。今年4月，江蘇無錫樓盤沒有完工，開發商卻消失了，數百購房人血本無歸。
國家發改委「城市和小城鎮改革發展中心」的課題組，去年調查12個省、區的156個地級市，發現，90%以上的地級市正在規劃建設新城新區。有研究數據顯示，全國新城新區規劃人口達到34億。這等於規劃出來的新城區，能容納下全世界一半的人口。
大陸經濟評論家「牛刀」說，所有買房的人都上當了，民眾期待房子能保值，不過在中共濫發鈔票，為創造GDP造出來的房子，只是一堆泡沫化了的鋼筋水泥，不是稀罕之物。
楊斌：「土地是政府的，是國家壟斷的，土地價格壟斷的，建房權壟斷的，沒有好的政府關係做不了房地產商，房地產商和政府的壟斷價格，把老百姓的一生的積蓄一次性剝削完畢。」
去年地方本級財政收入6萬9000億，其中六項來自土地及房產相關的稅收。而中央財政對地方財政的轉移支付總額4萬8000億，其中土地轉讓金收入4萬2000億。
北京大學光華管理學院博士生導師王建國：「房價高，主要是政府抬起來的。本來政府負債就很厲害，如果土地出賣突然之間下降的話，那政府根本沒法運作。」
楊斌：「每次發一次政策，房價漲高一次，讓老百姓限購甚麼的，是它自己得病了，是它壟斷才把價格抬這麼高，越限購越買，本來只買一套，一看限購，再買一套吧。」
北京清華大學經濟管理學院教授楊斌指出，房地產崩盤會造成金融危機和社會危機，而政府卻是危機的繫鈴人和解鈴人，楊斌說，土地私有化才能解決房價問題。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/舒燦
The Party and Developers Gang Up to Build A Ponzi Scheme
Recently, the sirens are getting louder and louder regarding
the health of Chinese real estate industry.
Overseas rating company has lowered its outlook
for Chinese real estate to negative from stable.
Professionals pointed out that the government monopolizes the land
and gangs up with developers.
Thus, the home price and market has been monopolized.
When calling for the limitation on the number of homes purchased,
it keeps pushing up home prices.
The newly-built homes that can hold more than half of the global population
have become the powder magazine to trigger nationwide economic crash and chaos.
On May 21, Moody’s Investors Service lowered its outlook
for Chinese real estate to negative from stable.
Moody’s forecast that Chinese real estate market
would greatly slow down in the next 12 months.
Based on Moody’s tracking record, inventory homes
in medium and big-sized cities have reached record high since April.
Within the projection period, those inventory homes
will weaken developers’ asking prices and
will produce pressure on operational capital and revenue rate.
Moody’s also found out that developers’ working capital also got hit
by construction expenses, land regulations and foreign bonds maturities.
As reported by “The Wall Street Journal”,
investors are forcing Chinese property companies to pay more
to borrow and driving some to the country’s “shadow-banking” system.
Even the biggest developers are getting hit. Evergrande Real Estate Group,
China’s second-largest developer by revenue,
had little trouble borrowing at relatively low interest rates
in the offshore bond market over the past four years.
But this year it has borrowed heavily in the shadow-banking system,
where Standard Chartered estimates the cost of funding on trust products is 10% to 12%.
Evergrande Real Estate Group issued 4 billion U.S. dollars
perpetual bonds with a much higher cost.
Besides the perpetual bonds, the debt of Evergrande Real Estate Group
increased 81% last year to 108.8 billion Chinese Yuan.
Yang Bin, professor of School of Economics and Management Tsinghua University,
“with 10% principal, one can borrow 80 to 90% of that much.
Developers use the money borrowed later to pay off the debt earlier,
trying hard to keep the financing chain intact without being broken.
How can they manage to do that?
They actually attract investors by offering high interest.
As long as the financing chain is working, they’ll linger on.
Once the chain is broken, they’ll run away.
This type of financing is nothing but a Ponzi scheme.”
Since 2011, quite a few developers have run away from debts.
During the second half year in 2013, there were 6 developers
who sold homes to multiple buyers and then ran away with the money.
Owner of “Jun Li Hao Group” from Qingdao, Shandong
left behind 1.2 billion Chinese Yuan debts and ran away.
A developer in Tangshan, Hebei left behind 1.3 billion debts and ran away too.
Desperate investors committed suicide by taking poison.
This April, in Wuxi, Jiangsu, the developer disappeared
before construction work had been completed.
Hundreds of home buyers lost all the money invested“`.
Research group of City and Small Town Development and Innovation Center,
National Development and Innovation Committee did research
last year among 156 cities from 12 provinces.
They found that more than 90% medium-sized cities were planning
to build new city districts. The research data show that the population planned
to hold in new city districts amount to 3.4 billion.
It means that new city districts can hold half of the global population.
Niu Dao, economic commentator in China,
stated that all home buyers were fooled.
People hope that the home they bought can maintain its value.
However, in China, the party prints money recklessly.
In order to improve GDP, the homes that have been built
are just steel and concrete, not something valuable.
Yang Bin:“The land in China belongs to and is monopolized by the government.
Both land price and construction rights are monopolized by the party.
If you don’t have a good relationship with the government,
you can never be a developer.
The government and developers gang up and
exploit every penny of the ordinary people’s savings.”
Last year, the total income of local governments is 6,900 billion Chinese Yuan,
in which 6 items are land and property tax revenue.
The transfer payment from the central to the local financing system
is about 4,800 billion, of which 4,200 billion is land transferring fee.
Wang Jianguo, Ph.D. student mentor of Guanghua School of Management,
Beijing University, “The high home price has been bidden up by the government.
The government is under severe debt.
If the land price goes down, the government won’t operate normally.”
Yang Bin:”Whenever a new policy issued, home price will go up even further.
How can ordinary people afford it?
The government is so sick that its monopoly
has made the home price this prohibitive.
The limitation on purchase only stimulates people to buy more homes.
Someone is planning to buy only one house.
When they see the purchase limitation is released, they just buy two instead. ”
Yang Bin:”The crash of the real estate industry will cause financial and social crisis.
The government should undo what it has done.
Only land privatization can solve the issues on home price. ”
Interview & Edit/Liuhui Post-Production/Shucan