【新唐人2014年04月30日訊】美國總統歐巴馬訪問亞洲四國，加強了與日本、菲律賓等國的軍事同盟關係，形成島鏈包圍中國。美軍還同時準備向亞太盟國派駐B-2隱形轟炸機、增加航空母艦演習等行動，壓制中共在東海及南海的「挑釁行動」。對此，中共軍方一些將領也提出「今夜準備打仗」的口號。那麼，美、中關係下一步會如何發展？請看報導。

美國在28號與菲律賓簽署一項協定，允許美軍在菲律賓部署軍隊、艦船和飛機等。這代表著更多的美軍將調往菲律賓。

菲國「賓德拉薩大學」美菲關係專家卡斯特羅說：此協議將改變南海形勢，向中國表明：「我們盯著你！」

近年來，中共與菲律賓等國，在南中國海因領土爭端多次對抗。在南海水域，中國船隻分別與美國艦船、印尼軍艦、越南勘測船發生過對峙。

但最嚴重的是在2012年4月份，中國海監船曾與菲律賓一艘軍艦和海岸警衛隊船隻，在黃岩島發生長達一個月的緊張對峙。

不僅是南中國海，在東海，中共近年來與日本在「釣魚島」問題上，也是糾纏不休。

不過，這次歐巴馬訪問日本時表示，美國在條約中對日本的安保承諾是「絕對的」。

其實，與歐巴馬行動相呼應的是，美國軍方也做好了準備。

美國《華爾街日報》引述美國官員的話表示，美國軍方已經準備了多種方案，將強有力的應對中共未來在南中國海和東海的任何「挑釁行動」。這些方案包括向鄰近中國地區派出B-2隱形轟炸機、和擴大美國戰機的偵察飛行規模、派遣航母進入中國沿海附近的有爭議水域，以及在接近中國沿海區域範圍內舉行航空母艦演習等。

這一新方案是美軍太平洋司令部(U.S. Pacific Command)在近幾個月制定的。

台灣政治大學國際關係研究中心教授嚴震生：「我認為，其實美國希望看到的是，不要讓這一些緊張的關係未來一旦觸發，不可收拾，像中東的情況一樣。所以是等於進行某種程度的嚇阻。」

台灣「政治大學國際關係研究中心」教授嚴震生認為，美國是希望通過加強盟國的軍事實力，達到區域內軍事實力平衡，從而降低戰爭風險。

美國聯合日本、菲律賓，在東海及南海對中國形成夾擊之勢，讓中共一些人很不爽。

中共軍隊南海艦隊政治指揮員湯谷生，在中共官媒《人民日報》上發表措詞強硬文章，要求以「今夜準備打仗」的姿態應對國際風雲。鷹派少將羅援也指出，歐巴馬對日本和菲律賓的表態，目地是恫嚇中國（中共）。他提醒中共軍隊隨時需要做好今天晚上就能作戰的準備，保持能打仗、打勝仗的姿態。

台灣政治大學教授丁樹範：「解放軍這些退休將領，他表達氣憤、不滿，要準備打仗，也不會覺得很意外。問題是真正這些政治領導人或者高層現役軍事領導人他們是怎麼想的，可能是另外一回事。」

中共海軍司令吳勝利，在山東青島最近舉行的「西太海軍論壇」第14次年會上說，當前東海形勢嚴峻，中、日海軍有擦槍走火的可能性，需要研究如何與日方「擦槍而不走火」。

香港《太陽報》對此表示質疑，報導說，如果中方連「走火」都沒有準備好，又如何應對毀滅性的戰火？如果連對日本都怕「走火」，又如何應對日本背後的美國呢？

文章分析，中共並非不想戰，是不能戰。因為目前中共軍方，連軍委副主席、總後勤部副部長都貪腐，誰能保證那些武器在關鍵時刻一定能發揮作用？

台灣「政治大學」教授丁樹範指出，雖然中共中央軍委主席習近平也說過「軍隊要準備打仗」之類的話，但他更大的用意是對內的需要，不僅是對付軍隊、或地方腐敗分子，更是鞏固自己權力的需要。

丁樹範表示，目前中共也沒有打仗的迫切性。

採訪/陳漢 編輯/宋風 後製/李勇

Obama’s Asia visit and the military alliance: what should the CCP do?

Anchor: The U.S. President Barack Obama visited four Asian

countries. He strengthened the military alliance with Japan

and the Philippines and formed a chain of islands to surround

China. The U.S. also deployed B-2 stealth bombers for the Asia-

Pacific allies and increased aircraft carrier exercises. These

actions are conducted to suppress the “provocative acts" of

the CCP in the East China Sea and South China Sea. In this

regard, the CCP military generals also made up slogans such as

“to fight tonight". Therefore, how to develop US-China

relations next?

Voice: On Apr. 28, the United States and the Philippines

signed an agreement which allows the U.S. to deploy troops,

ships and aircraft in the Philippines. It means that more U.S.

troops will be transferred to the Philippines.

The US-Philippine relations expert Castro from De La Salle

University Philippines said that this agreement will change

the situation in the South China Sea. It is a message to China:

“We stare at you!"

In recent years, there have been many repeated confrontations

between the CCP, the Philippines and other countries in the

South China Sea due to territorial disputes. In the South

China Sea, a confrontation occurred between Chinese

boats and the warships or survey vessels from the United

States, Indonesia and Vietnam.

The most serious event happened in April 2012, when a

month-long tense confrontation occurred in Huangyan

Island between a Chinese ocean surveillance ship, one

Philippine warship and the Coast Guard boats.

It’s not onlythe South China Sea, “the Diaoyu Islands"

problem has entangled the CCP and Japan in recent years in the

East China Sea.

However, when Obama visited Japan, he said that the U. S.

commitment for the protection of Japan is “absolutely" in the

treaty.

In fact, the U.S. military is ready for action in response to

Obama.

The Wall Street Journal quoted U.S. officials as saying that

the U.S. military has prepared a variety of programs, which

could be the strong responses to any “provocative actions" of

the CCP in the South China Sea and East China Sea in future.

These programs include dispatching B-2 stealth bombers in

the neighboring regions of China, increasing the reconnaissance

flights of U.S. warplanes, sending aircraft carriers into the

disputed waters close to China, and holding of aircraft

carrier exercises close to China, etc.

This new program was developed by the U.S. Pacific

Command (US Pacific Command) in recent months.

Yen, Chen-Shen, a professor at the Institute of International

Relations, National Chengchi University said: “I think, the

United States does not want to let these tense relations become

a trigger in the future, which could be as out of control as the

situation in the Middle East. It is equal to deterrence to some

extent."

Yen, Chen-Shen thought that the U.S. hopes to reach a

balance of military strength in the region by strengthening the

military strength of the allies. Therefore, the risk of war would

be reduced.

The pincer attack formation made by the U.S., Japan and the

Philippines makes some CCP people very unhappy.

Tang Gusheng, the political commander of the South China

Sea Fleet published a strongly worded article in People’s Daily

– the CCP official media and required “to fight tonight” to

deal with the international situation. The hawks Major General

Luo Yuan also pointed out that Obama wanted to intimidate

China (CCP) by showing his attitude to Japan and the

Philippines. He reminded the CCP military needs to be able to

fight tonight and keep up a fighting and victorious gesture.

Ding Shufan, the professor at National Chengchi University:

“These retired PLA generals expressed anger, resentment and

they mentioned to prepare a fight. These are not so very

unexpected. The problem is how the current political leaders

or senior military leaders think. It might be a different matter."

Wu Shengli, the CCP Navy Commander said in the 14th

Western Pacific Naval Symposium (Qingdao, Shandong) that

the current situation in the East China Sea is grim. There is

a possibility of misfires between the China and Japan navies.

There is a need to study how to “fight without fire".

The Sun in Hong Kong expressed their doubts. It was

reported that if the CCP is not ready for the “fire", how to deal

with the devastating war? If the CCP is afraid of “fire" with

Japan, then how to deal with the United States?

This article analyzed that the CCP wants to fight, but they can

not. In the current Chinese military, even the Central Military

Commission Vice Chairman and the deputy minister of the

General Logistics Department are corrupt, who can guarantee

that those weapons will be able to play a role at a critical

moment?

Ting Shufan pointed out that although the CCP Central

Military Commission Chairman Xi Jinping also said that the

military must prepare to fight, his intention was to the internal

needs – not only to deal with the military or local

corruption, but also to consolidate his power.

Ding Shufan said that there is no war urgency for the CCP at

present.

Interview/Chen Han Edit/Song Feng Post-Production/Li Yong