【新唐人2014年02月28日訊】中國房地產市場最近可說是風雨飄搖，大型建案降價甩賣不斷湧現。最近還傳出，多家銀行為規避房地產風險，停止房地產貸款，股市受此影響也應聲暴跌。有專家分析，中國房地產市場的走勢，不是正常市場機制所運行出來的表現，而是一連串政策手段造成的結果。對於外界盛傳的「樓市崩盤論」，真的會發生嗎？請看本臺記者黃億美的分析報導。
隨著大陸1月份近9成一線城市成交量環比下跌的數據，以及最近香港、杭州、常州等部分樓盤大幅降價的消息不斷傳出，樓市降溫、房價回落的市場預期聲音越來越高。
但是，根據中共國家統計局網站24號發佈的消息，與2012年1月比較，在70個大中城市的新建商品住宅中，只有溫州價格下降，降幅4.3%。上漲的城市有69個，北京、廣州和深圳房價的年漲幅都超過18%，其中漲幅最大的是上海，一年漲了20.9%。
中國人民銀行日前也發佈數據表示，今年1月上海的本外幣個人住房貸款增加116.7億元人民幣，創下近3年來個人住房貸款每月成長量的新高記錄。
《央視》財經評論員：「我到長三角跑了幾個縣，跑了幾個市，包括杭州市、義烏市、金華市，這邊的房市都很差，這邊一塌糊塗根本沒人買房子，瞎扯。你看現在二手樓掉的一塌糊塗，上海，二手樓佔了20、30%還沒人買，還在那邊說甚麼上漲。」
據了解，中國新年一過，浙江杭州城北的「德信-北海公園」樓盤宣佈，新房將以每平方米1萬5800元價格銷售，與降價前1萬9000元的均價相比，大約下降了3200元。離這個樓盤不遠的「天鴻香榭裡」，均價直降3400元。緊接著，杭州又有8個樓盤做出不同程度的價格調整。
大陸經濟學者、金融專家楊斌：「其實降50%它也是泡沫，老百姓還是買不起房子，還是高於全世界，今年的房價，平均的房價都高於紐約了，同樣按美元比，按人民幣比，已經高的出奇了，這個是肯定沒問題的，降多少，看各方面的程度吧，我認為降20%的可能性比較大。」
最近一篇網路文章迅速被大量轉載，標題是《房價已經崩盤的５點證據》。作者認為，中國樓市已經開始崩盤，或者處於崩盤的前夜。文章舉出五點證據可以證明﹕一是，售房旺季樓市不旺﹔二是，三、四線城市的樓市已經有價無市﹔三是，銀行已經縮緊房產的銀根﹔四是，拋售房產的民間人士越來越多﹔五是，許多大亨紛紛撤資房地產。
對此，中共黨媒《新華社》名記者發表評論指出，姑且不論這五點證據是否真的值得推敲，一個不能迴避的事實是，2014年以來，看空房地產市場的言論與觀點已經是層出不窮。
文章還說，儘管上個月的統計局數據依舊顯示全國房價仍在普漲，但關於中國樓市在2014年的前途，很多人卻不看好。一系列看上去「利好」房地產行業的因素，在未來的某一天卻極有可能成為房地產崩盤的「製造者」。
在中國房地產市場風雨飄搖中，人民幣也出現罕見的急速下跌，而資本流出跡象明顯，香港樓盤降價30％，李嘉誠拋售大陸資產，種種跡象早已提醒大陸民眾要「小心樓市」，再加上樓市已連續上漲10多年，長期纍積的泡沫，不知道何時破滅。未來的房市如何，辛苦的勞動階級民眾，得小心看緊荷包。
採訪/常春 編輯/黃億美 後製/孫寧
Chinese Housing Market Cools Down
China’s real estate market has been on a stormy path recently
with price cuts on major real estate.
A number of banks curbed real estate loans to avoid risk.
Subsequently, the stock market has taken a tumble as well.
Experts analyze the real estate market trend in China is not
normal, but a result of a series of policy measures.
Will the real estate market collapse theory take place?
Let’s see our reporter Huang Yimei’s analysis.
With real estate sales in decline in nearly 90 percent
of first tier cities, as well as slashed property prices
in Hong Kong, Hangzhou, and Changzhou, the warning
of a property market decline is getting louder.
However, according to the data from National Bureau
of Statistics on Feb. 24, only Wenzhou real estate prices
declined by 4.3 percent out of 70 cities compared
to the January 2012 data.
Property values have risen in 69 cities.
The housing prices in Beijing, Guangzhou
and Shenzhen rose more than 18 percent.
The housing price in Shanghai has the largest rising
at 20.9 percent.
Recent data from People’s Bank of China also indicates that
this January, Shanghai’s foreign currency property loans have
added another 11.67 billion yuan, hitting a new record high
in the individual monthly property loan growth rate
over the past three years.
CCTV financial commentator: “I went to some counties
and cities in Yangtze River Delta, including Hangzhou, Yiwu,
and Jinhua.
The property market is really poor,
they are not wanted.
The second-hand property market is a mess too.
Second-hand property in Shanghai accounts for 20 to 30
percent of the market, and no one will purchase pre-owned.
They are still saying that prices are rising."
It is understood that after Chinese New Year,
DeXin-Beihai park real estate in north Hangzhou city
cut prices by 3,200 yuan.
A nearby estate in Tianhong Champs had a 3,400 yuan cut.
Subsequently, eight more properties in Hangzhou
made various price adjustments.
Yang Bin, economist: “In fact, a 50 percent price cut
is still a bubble.
People cannot afford it.
Average housing prices are still the highest
in the world, higher than even New York.
It is a sure figure in Dollar or RMB, it is just high.
As for how much they’ll cut prices, it depends.
I think a 20 percent cut is very likely."
A recent Internet post titled, “Five Pieces of Proof
of the Real Estate Collapse", has gained popularity.
The author believes the Chinese housing market has collapsed
or is on the verge of collapsing.
The five pieces of proof are that the high season for selling
is running low, there is no market for real estate
in third or fourth tier cities, Chinese banks have tightened
housing loans, more houses are for sale, and moguls
have withdrawn their investments in real estate.
The Communist mouthpiece Xinhua commented, “Regardless
if these five pieces of evidence are true, one fact
is that real estate market in 2014 has been
looked down upon by many."
People believe that even though the National Bureau
of Statistics showed an overall growth in real estate,
the 2014 prospects look bad.
The series of advantages the Chinese real estate market
is enjoying now could likely become the cause
of a later collapse.
While the real estate market in China is wobbling,
Renminbi also appears to have quickly depreciated
along with significant capital outflow.
Hong Kong real estate prices were down by 30 percent,
Li Ka-shing’s selling of his assets in China and other cases
have reminded the Chinese of the real estate risk.
For more than 10 years, the real estate bubble in China
has been large with increasing prices.
A burst is anticipated.
The hard working labor class should watch their wallets.
Interview/Chang Chun Edit/Huang Yimei Post-Production/Sun Ning