【新唐人2014年02月18日訊】中國的銀行在新年出現驚人的數據，面對政府遏制信貸增長的努力，1月份新增借貸達到四年來最高。經濟學家評論說，這個數據凸顯了金融系統違約和壞賬的風險。
1月份新增人民幣貸款達到1萬3200億元，將近12月份總數的三倍，比市場預期高出2000億元，是自從2010年一月份以來的最高月度總額。社會融資總量達到2萬5800億元，比外界預測高出25%。
借貸熱潮增添了中國越來越依賴債務的擔憂，儘管政府此前聲稱，正努力戒除銀行和企業這種依賴性。
英國《金融時報》日前引述「瑞士聯合銀行」經濟學家汪濤的話說，「我們可以看到（中共）當局從未像某些人擔憂的那樣意圖收緊。」而美國美林銀行分析師陸挺在報告中說，「現在你知道中國的銀行並沒有真正收緊」。
中共央行1月份警告﹕銀行信貸在快速增長，並呼籲借貸機構控制貸款飆升。央行在11月聲明，中國經濟可能面臨長期去槓桿化。但是貸款的飆升跟央行的警告背道而馳。北京「天則經濟研究所」副所長馮興元對此表示費解。
而「瑞銀」分析這種矛盾現象的原因，部分是因為決策層仍然希望保持穩健的投資和GDP增速、以及只願意容忍信貸增速小幅放緩，因此央行在一定程度上放鬆了對1月份信貸的控制。回頭來看，中國人民銀行在春節前收緊銀行間市場流動性，或許就是為了防止銀行貸款過快增長甚至失控，而不是像市場當時所擔憂的那樣要顯著收緊流動性。
馮興元懷疑，一月份飆升的信貸不是流入實體經濟，而是在空轉，因為當前經濟下滑，冬季又是投資淡季。
北京天則經濟研究所副所長馮興元：「貸款多就是看他用在哪。如果是用在還欠的民間債務或者企業之間的還債，那就是沒有投入到投資環節。實際上你說貸款大量用於買房子好像也不是這回事。然後說經濟迴轉也不是。所以很奇怪。有可能有一大筆錢在空轉。就是我剛才講的。國有企業它容易貸到錢，然後通過委託貸款貸給民營企業或地方政府。」
馮興元的分析跟一月份數據不謀而合。數據顯示，影子銀行中，僅委託貸款一枝獨秀，大增3965億元，同比多增1904億元。
「瑞銀」的報告也分析說，並非所有新增社會融資規模都直接投向實體經濟，其中一部分，僅僅反映了某些企業和非銀行金融機構，在金融中介過程中，所從事的額外鏈條和環節。
資金空轉的一個佐證是，信貸增長的經濟回報在快速遞減。根據美國《彭博社》的數據，在去年第一季度，每一美元的信貸增長，可以增加GDP17美分，而在2012年，可以增加29美分，在2007年，可以增加83美分。
馮興元分析說，大量資金空轉的後果就是延緩了債務問題爆發的時間，加劇金融風險和債務水平。
馮興元：「另外一個就是銀行的資產質量會下降。說明如果你貸出去是讓他還舊錢的話，用新錢來還舊貸。那實際上這個錢已經是有一定的壞賬的可能性。所以等於是銀行的不良資產率會提高。就是隱性的不良資產率會提高。」
《金融時報》報導說，更密切的觀察1月份信貸數字可以發現，影子銀行借貸在減少，而銀行的表內借貸在增加。信託公司的借貸下降到1040億元，只有一年前的一半。信託公司是中國最重要的非銀行金融機構，也是最近一系列違約恐慌的中心。
分析師說，這種改變如果持續的話，代表北京在試圖控制膨脹的影子金融行業，不給經濟帶來過大的傷害。
「瑞銀」分析報告說，展望整個2014年，他們並不十分擔心由政策收緊或利率上行導致的信貸增速下滑。相比之下，他們更擔心由流動性間歇性收緊、影子信貸監管趨嚴，或更重要的，潛在的影子信貸違約事件造成局部信貸收縮所引發的信貸波動。
採訪編輯/秦雪 後製/陳建銘
China Credit Explosion, Experts Warn of Idle Funds
Alarming data appeared in China’s banks during the Chinese
New Year, since the government effort to curb credit growth.
New lending in January reached the highest in four years.
Economists commented that this data highlights the
risk of default and bad debts of the financial system.
Upon learning that the Governor of Calif. was coming to visit,
In January RMB loans reached 1.32 trillion yuan, nearly three
times the total in December.
This is 200 billion yuan higher than the market expected, and
the highest monthly total since January 2010.
Total social financing reached 2.58 trillion yuan and
25% higher than the outside forecasts.
The lending boom adds worries that China is increasingly
dependent on debt, although the government had claimed that
banks and corporations are trying to get rid of this dependence.
The UK Financial Times recently quoted UBS economist
Wang Tao saying: “We can see the Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) have never intended to tighten like someone worried. ”
While Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Lu Ting said
in a report that, “Now you know China’s banks are not really
tightening. ”
The CCP Central Bank warned in January that bank credit is
increasing rapidly, and called for control of the loans.
In November the central bank in November announced that
the Chinese economy could face a long-term deleveraging.
But the surge in loans is against loans from the central bank.
Beijing “Heaven Institute of Economics”deputy director
Feng Yuyuan felt this was inexplicable.
UBS analyzed the reasons behind this paradox, which is
partly due to decision-makers still hoping to maintain a strong
investment and GDP growth.
They are only willing to tolerate a slight slowdown in credit
growth, so the central bank relaxed January’s credit control.
In retrospect, the People’s Bank of China tightened liquidity
in the interbank market before the Chinese New Year,.
Perhaps to prevent excessive growth of bank loans and even
lose control, rather than obviously tightening the liquidity
like the market fears.
Feng Xingyuan suspects that, January’s soaring credit is not
flowing into the real economy.
It is idle, because of the current economic downturn, and the
winter season is the investment off-season.
Beijing Tianze Institute of Economics Deputy Director Feng
Xingyuan: “It depends on where the loans are used.
If is used to repay the private or corporate debts, this is not
to put into the investment part.
Actually it is not correct to say that the loans are used to buy
houses, or that the economy is turning. So it is strange.
There might be a lot of money idle.
It is like I said, the state-owned enterprises can borrow
money more easily, and then through entrusted loans
lend to private enterprises or local governments.’
Feng Xingyuan’s analysis coincides with the January data.
The data shows that among the shadow banks, only entrusted
loans are thriving and increased to 396.5 billion yuan.
This is an additional 190.4 billion yuan compared
with the same period previously.
The UBS report also analyzed that, not all newly social
financing investments go directly to the real economy.
One part only reflects some enterprises and
non-bank financial institutions.
In the financial intermediation process, there are additional
chains and links.
One corroboration of idle funds is that the economic return of
credit growth is diminishing rapidly.
According to U.S. Bloomberg data, in the first quarter of last
year, every dollar credit growth increased 17 cents of GDP.
However, in 2012, this increase was 29 cents, and in 2007,
it was 83 cents.
Feng Xingyuan analyzed that, many consequences of idle
funds are to delay the outbreak of debt problems, which will
increase the financial risk and debt levels.
Feng Xingyuan: “In addition, the quality of bank assets will
decline.
If the money you lend is to return the old debts, to use new
money to repay old debts, there is actually the possibility
of bad debts.
The banks’ non-performing assets ratio will increase, as
well as the implicit rate of non-performing debts.’
The Financial Times reports that, closer observation of the
January credit figures reveal that, shadow bank borrowing is
decreasing, but the banks’ sheet lending is increasing.
Trust companies’ lending fell to 104 billion yuan, in half of
last year.
Trust companies are China’s most important non-bank
financial institutions, and the center of the latest series of
default panic.
Analysts said if such a change continues it means Beijing is
trying to control the expanding shadow financial industry,
not to bring too much economic damage.
UBS analyzes that, looking at the whole of 2014, they are not
worried that the government’s tightening or interest rate
increase will lead credit growth decline.
In contrast, they are more worried because of the tightening
of liquidity and tighter regulation of shadow credit.
Or more importantly, potential shadow credit breach of
contract incidents leading to a partial credit crunch which
causes credit fluctuations.
Interview & Edit/Qinxue Post-Production/Chen Jianming