【新唐人2014年01月22日訊】中國糧食危機迫在眉睫了嗎﹖近期，從中共的經濟工作會議、到農村經濟工作會議，再到週日公布的「中央一號文件」，「糧食安全」都被列在重要任務之首。分析認為，中共強調糧食安全的背後，中國糧食進口總量正急劇上升，中國糧食危機已迫在眉睫。
1月19號，中共當局公布的「中央一號文件」，把「糧食安全」列入了首要地位，並強調「2014年及今後一個時期，要完善國家糧食安全保障體系」。
去年12月10號至13號，中共召開的中央經濟工作會議上，「切實保障糧食安全」被列為2014年經濟六大任務的首位，並提出「谷物基本自給、口糧絕對安全」的口號和目標。
美國託萊多大學退休教授冉伯恭：「中國一直是農業大國，中國過去都是以糧為鋼，以食物為天，以食為本，這種概念就是自給自足，有足夠的糧食對甚麼都重要，因此一定強調農業的重要性。」
不過，中共媒體一直宣稱「中國糧食產量十連增」、「中國能夠實現糧食基本自給」，在這樣的背景下，中共頻頻強調「糧食安全」問題，引發輿論關注。
中共農業部種植業司司長曾衍德表示，雖然糧食「十連增」，但每年中國新增的糧食需求也在100億斤以上，糧食供給偏緊狀態，將長期存在。
旅德材料學博士王傑遜指出，由於中共當局近年來大量徵地、生態退耕、農業結構調整和自然災害損毀，耕地污染等問題，中國耕地面積在不斷減少。
旅德材料學博士王傑遜：「很多農田被徵，過度開發，很多重污染企業都由大城市遷往農村，而且農村新一代務農人員也不斷減少，這同時帶來另一個問題，就是水污染的問題，像這些高污染的企業，大量工業廢水不經過處理就排放。」
王傑遜指出，這些廢水一方面威脅著民眾的飲用水安全，另一方面通過農業灌溉進入食物鏈，直接導致了這些年中國糧食產量大減，自給率不斷下降。
中國農業生物工程學者張先生：「這個土壤的污染，還有水的污染，這兩個條件不解決的話，糧食的問題永遠都不會解決，而土壤的污染和水的污染就必須需要國家環保部門的監督檢查，而國家環保部門的這方面的工作，中共當局從這幾十年來講根本就沒做。」
去年底，中共國土資源部調查顯示：中國大約有333萬公頃（約5000萬畝）農業用地，因遭受嚴重污染，無法種植農作物。
早在2011年，中共國務院發展研究中心就曾預測，中國糧食進口量將由1997年的416萬噸，增加到2020年的2224萬噸﹔不過，在2012年，中國糧食進口總量已超過7000萬噸。
大陸《財經》雜誌曾引述研究部門的推算指出，以2010年糧棉油進口量計算，中國進口農產品的數量，相當於使用了國外大概7億多畝耕地，等於整個黑龍江省的面積。
2010年10月，《中國食品科技網》記者在東北採訪時發現，不管是中儲糧直屬庫，還是國有糧庫、民營糧庫或者加工貿易企業的倉庫，目前基本上都已經空了。
中國「雜交水稻之父」，中國工程院院士袁隆平，他在一篇題為「中國最大劫難已無法避免」的文章中說，中國糧食危機無法避免，將隨時引爆中國社會危機。文章披露，中國糧食自給率只有80%出頭，80%以上食用油都依賴進口。
2012年，美國農業部說，乾旱將使美國的玉米和大豆大幅減產，這更讓2011年進口糧食超過6千萬噸的中國，承受大動盪、大衝擊﹔聯合國糧農組織警告，又一輪糧食危機可能爆發。
袁隆平表示：我眼前浮現的分明是一片混亂、人相食、餓孵遍地、流離失所的情景，隨時都可以發生，並且已經不可避免。
採訪編輯/李韻 後製/鍾元
Headline News: Food Security Crisis Is Imminent
Is China’s food crisis imminent?
Recently, food security has been listed as the first major
issue to be tackled at the CCP Economic Work Conference,
the Central Rural Work Conference as well as in the published
“No. 1 Central Document" on Sunday.
Analysts believe that behind the emphasis on food security
lies a sharp increase in food imports, signaling the imminence
of the Chinese food crisis.
On Jan. 19, Chinese authorities announced that the No.1
Central Document, the customary first official document
of the new year, listed food security as the top priority.
The improvement of the national food security system
in 2014 was also stressed in the document.
At the CCP Economic Work Conference which was held
between Dec. 10 and 13 of last year, effectively ensuring
food security was listed as the top task of six major tasks.
The CCP has come up with a slogan to illustrate its goals –
“grain self-sufficiency, absolute security of food rations".
Ran Bogong, University of Toledo professor Emeritus:
“In the past, China had a large agriculture industry.
Since food is China’s first necessity, self-sufficiency
and adequate amounts of food are most important,
emphasis is placed on the importance of agriculture."
But the CCP media has declared that “China’s grain
output has risen for the 10th consecutive year" and
“China can achieve grain self-sufficiency".
The CCP’s frequent emphasis on food security
has attracted the public’s attention.
Director of CCP Crop Cultivation Department Zeng Yande
said that although grain production has risen for the 10th
straight year, tight food supplies will persist with the grain
demand increase, which is now at 100 million tons per year.
Ph.D. in Materials Science and Engineering, Jason Wang,
a Chinese national in Germany, pointed out that China’s
farmland continues to diminish due to a large number
of land acquisitions, ecological restorations,
agricultural structural adjustments as well as
natural disasters, pollution and other issues.
Germany-based Dr. Jason Wang, Ph.D. of Materials Science:
“A significant amount of farmland was requisitioned
and overexploited.
There are increasingly less farmers, many heavily polluting
enterprises move to rural areas from big cities
and discharge a large amount of industrial
wastewater without treatment."
Jason Wang pointed out that not only does the waste threaten
the safety of the drinking water, it enters the food chain via
irrigation, resulting in a greatly diminished grain production
industry and a continually dropping self-sufficiency rate.
China Agricultural Bioengineering scholar Mr. Zhang:
“The food problem will never be solved
if soil and water pollution are not solved.
To resolve soil and water pollution, the state environmental
supervision and inspection departments have to inspect.
However, the CCP environmental protection department
hasn’t done anything in the past decade.
By the end of last year, an investigation by the CCP Ministry
of Land and Source showed that about 3.33 million
hectares (about 5,000 acres) of agricultural land are unusable
due to heavy pollution.
In 2011, the CCP State Council Development Research
Center had predicted that Chinese grain imports would
increase to 22.24 million tons in 2020,
up by 416 million tons since 1997.
However, China’s total food imports reached over
70 million tons in 2012.
Citing the estimates by the research department,
Finance magazine pointed out that based on 2010 cotton,
oil and grain imports, the number of China’s agricultural
imports is equal to the use of 700 million mu’s of foreign
cultivated land, or, the whole of Heilongjiang province.
In October 2010, a China Food Science and Technology
reporter found that not only have the CCP central granaries
been mostly emptied, the state-owned granaries and the
privately owned granaries in the Northeast are nearly empty.
In his article, “China’s Largest Catastrophe Cannot Be
Avoided" the father of hybrid rice, academician
Yuan Longping, said a food crisis can’t be avoided
and a social crisis could erupt at any time.
His article revealed that China’s grain self-sufficiency rate
is only 80 percent and China imports more than 80 percent
of its edible oil.
In 2012, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said that drought
would cause a decline in U.S. corn and soybean production.
China will be heavily impacted by this because its import
of this type was more than 6 million tons in 2011.
China’s Food and Agriculture warned that another
possible food crisis will break out.
Yuan Longping said cannibalism, starvation,
and homelessness may be inevitable.
It can occur at any time, anywhere.
Interview & Edit/LiYun Post-Production/ZhongYuan