【新唐人2014年01月11日訊】北京當局從今年1月1號開始實行的南海捕魚新規定，引起了國際社會的一些反彈。中共在這個有爭議的區域拋出這種規定，與國內的政治局勢、軍方利益，以及美國重返亞太的國際形勢，有甚麼關係呢？讓我們一起聽聽兩位專家的分析。
美國國務院發言人莎琪9號表示，在有爭議的地區施加這種限制是「挑釁和危險的行動」。越南捕魚協會通知漁民繼續在南海捕魚；菲律賓星期五譴責中共「加劇了緊張局勢，不必要的使南中國海局勢複雜化，威脅到地區的和平與穩定」。台灣陸委會8號表示，從未接受大陸海南省發佈的管理條例相關內容，台灣船舶在中華民國固有領土及水域進行活動，中國大陸及國際相關各方應予以尊重。
南海捕魚新規定，是去年11月底由海南省人大頒布的，要求外國漁民如果在350萬平方公里的南海上的200萬平方公里中捕魚的話，必須要先徵得中方准許，否則面臨沒收捕魚設備和罰款50萬元人民幣。
美國《中國事務》雜誌主編伍凡從國際形勢分析，美國重返亞太后，與東南亞、東北亞很多國家在政治、經濟、軍事上形成了對中共的包圍圈，因此中共此舉真實的用意是針對美國。
美國《中國事務》雜誌主編伍凡：「實際上這個針對的不僅僅是東南國家，事實上針對美國。現在美國要作為東南亞國家的後盾，那麼它現在跟美國來對抗，兩邊就針鋒相對了。儘管它的武器說不定還沒有打出去，被人家消滅都有可能，但是它認為它正在走這步棋。」
南海有全世界公認的最繁忙的航道，漁業資源也非常豐富，北京劃定的區域中包含實際由菲律賓和越南管治的一些島嶼。有中國問題專家擔心，這項新規定可能會引發新的爭端。
另一方面，北京時政觀察人士華頗認為，北京的這個新規定，主要是為了轉嫁國內的政治焦點。
北京時政觀察人士華頗：「這幾天中共高層的動作頻頻，先是軍方將領換銜，最矚目的是39軍的軍長潘良實，調任了北京衛戍區的司令員，說是習近平欽點。這一切就是給即將召開的中紀委第三次全體會議鋪墊，因為這次『超級大老虎』周永康可能會正式拋出了。」
美國《大紀元》新聞網評論指出，目前前中共中央政治局常委周永康所屬的派別，正在絕地反撲，如所謂「中國首善」陳光標美國之行，就是這一目地。華頗指出，陳光標收購《紐約時報》和染指中共禁區——法輪功問題，都是他們向現任中共高層叫板。
華頗：「這一切的一切，都是不可開交。所以中共為了轉嫁這些危局，有可能是突然轉變一下風向，宣佈加強南海管制。所以可能會引起周邊國家的一些激烈反彈，就會轉變世界與中國公眾的注意力。」
華頗分析，這種爭端恰好符合了目前中共軍界一些人的利益需求。因為日前國防部發言人否認了建立「聯合作戰司令部」、和重新劃分軍區等改革措施，因為這斷了軍方一些將領上升的空間。
華頗：「如果要在周邊地區緊張的話，這種改革肯定要推遲的，而且彰顯軍方的重要性，就是軍方的利益只能夠加強，不能夠減少；軍費不能減反而要加強，還有把更多的資源向我們這邊傾斜。」
北京拋出南海捕魚新規定後，國際輿論的批評主要集中於：「在這種有爭議區域，單方面的採取強硬態勢，不利於東南亞的和平與經濟發展。」
採訪編輯/唐音 後製/黎安安
The Hidden Agenda Behind China’s New Fisheries Rule in South China Sea
China’s new fisheries law in South China Sea effective
on Jan. 1 has many countries concerned.
Will the new law regarding this highly controversial area
affect domestic politics and the military as well as effect
the United States’ return to Asia?
The following is our experts’ analysis.
U.S. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki indicated
in the Jan.9 daily briefing that restrictions in disputed portions
of the South China Sea are seen as a “provocative
and potentially dangerous act".
Vietnam’s fishermen continue its normal fisheries, and
in a Jan. 10 (Friday) statement, the Philippine Department
of Foreign Affairs said that the new Chinese regulation
“escalates tensions, unnecessarily complicates the situation
in the South China Sea, and threatens the peace and stability
of the region."
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs has rejected China’s fishing rules
stating that Taiwanese fishermen are proceeding as usual
in Taiwanese waters which ought to be mutually
respected by international communities.
This new law promulgated by the Hainan Provincial People’s
Congress at the end of November last year says that boats
entering Chinese territory within 2 million square km
(770,000 square miles) of the South China Sea,
an area estimated 3.5 million square km
(1.4 million square miles) in size, must first obtain permission
or have their boats and fishing equipment confiscated
and face fines of up to 500,000 yuan ($82,600).
China Affairs magazine editor-in-chief Chris Wu analyzes
that the return of the U.S. to Asia has put pressure
on the Communist regime in politics, economy and military.
He believes China’s new law is meant to target
the United States.
Chris Wu, China Affairs magazine editor-in-chief: “It is
in fact targeting the U.S. more than the other countries.
As the backbone of the Southeast Asian countries,
the United States is the center of the conflict.
Regardless of its military strength, the regime is taking
this route to antagonize the United States."
South China Sea, the world’s busiest waterway,
harbors rich resources.
Beijing’s new law overlaps territory – relevant islands
and reefs – also claimed by the Philippines and Vietnam.
China affairs experts worry that the new law could instigate
fresh disputes.
Beijing politics observer Hua Po analyzes Beijing’s political
agenda behind this new rule is to divert attention away from
domestic political conflict.
Hua Po, Beijing politics observer: “There have been a number
of activities in the Communist central, including the
reorganization of the military generals.
Most notable is 39th Mechanized Group Army Commender
Pan Liangshi, who was transferred to the Beijing Garrison
Command.
It was said to be appointed by Xi Jinping.
In fact, this is to pave the way for the upcoming third
Plenary Session of the central disciplinary commission,
in which the ‘super tiger’ Zhou Yongkang
may be officially sacked."
The Epoch Times commentary has pointed out that
Zhou Yongkang’s cronies have engaged in a series
of retaliatory measures to challenge the current Communist
leadership including sending China’s number one
philanthropist Chen Guangbiao to New York in the name
of acquiring The New York Times and his rehashing
of the Tiananmen self-immolation incident to defame
Falun Gong once he arrived.
Hua Po: “All in all, the CCP is in a bitterly critical situation.
This announcement of the South China Sea, meant to increase
intension, is just to shift the focus.
It brings international criticisms but also takes the world’s
focus off of the Chinese."
Hua Po analyzes this international dispute was in line
with the current personal needs of the regime’s military.
Particularly, the Defense Ministry spokesman recently
denied reform measures such as the establishment of the
“Joint Operations Command" and the re-division of military,
which could lead to promotion cut off in the military.
Hua Po: “The increasing maritime tension will certainly
delay the reform and highlight the importance of the military.
The military budget can only be increased and strengthened,
and even tilted."
Beijing’s new fisheries rule in the South China Sea has drawn
criticism of one consensus internationally –
any unilateral action in a highly disputed area
threatens the peace and economy of Southeast Asia.
Interview & Edit/TangYin Post-Production/LiAnan