【新唐人2013年12月28日訊】日前中共召開農村工作會議，討論明年的所謂「一號文件」，核心問題是「如何保障糧食安全」。大陸媒體也不再提「十一連增」目標。中共「一號文件」為甚麼把解決三農問題的戰略目標，轉移到強調「糧食產量安全」上來呢？請看報導。
中共在12月23號和24號召開了農村工作會議，討論了明年「一號文件」內容。會議上，中共把糧食產量及質量安全列為重要任務之首。
「中央一號文件」原指中共中央每年發出的第一份文件。現在已經成為中共中央強調農村問題的專有名詞。
在這一大前提下，明年的「一號文件」將對小麥、水稻、玉米三大主糧的自給率做出調整，其中正在討論的三項主要資料是，口糧自給率基本達到100%，谷物自給率基本保持在90%以上，中國糧食總體自給率長期要保持在80%以上。
中共媒體也罕見的不再提糧食「十一年連增」，也不再提「中國能夠依靠自己的力量實現糧食基本自給」等宣傳口號。
根據《國家糧食安全中長期規劃綱要（2008-2020年）》，中國糧食自給率需維持在95%以上。但大陸《經濟觀察報》引用海關統計資料顯示，中國2012年的「糧食進口總量」已達7236萬噸，相當於中國全年糧食產量的12.2%。而2013年海關最新資料顯示，11月中國進口大豆達到603萬噸，創下歷年同月最高水準，前11個月纍計進口大豆5597萬噸，同比增長6.6%。
海關統計還顯示，今年10月份的小麥進口量，比上一年同期增長了273.27%，前10個月同比增長16.4%。
大陸《財經》雜誌引述研究部門的資料推算，以2010年糧棉油進口量計算，中國進口農產品數量，相當於使用了國外大概7億多畝耕地，等於整個黑龍江省的面積土地。
中國國家級農業專家吳先生：「這是個社會問題，沒有人種地、沒有人養牛、都跑到城裡打工去了。農村沒有人勞動、沒有人幹活了。」
中國國家級農業專家吳先生表示，中國作為農業大國還缺少糧食，一是因為官商圖便宜，大量從美國、巴西等國進口糧食，衝擊了糧食價格，打擊了農民的種田積極性﹔二是不用科技管理和科技人員把關。農業管理人員腐敗無能，他們只考慮鈔票，導致農業沒有人搞並且失衡。如現在中國傳統的特有主糧——小米都成了珍品，老百姓都吃不起了，就是因為管理問題。
吳先生還認為，農村會議不在農村開，也沒有農民參加，都是當官的人參加，這哪能保證糧食安全呢！
11月28號，巡迴考察山東的中共總書記習近平，在山東農科院座談會上發表講話時說，「手中有糧，心中不慌」。他還表示，一旦發生大饑荒，有錢也沒用。
而大陸網路盛傳，據說是中國「雜交水稻之父」袁隆平吐露真言的網文寫道：「中國最大劫難已無法避免」。文章列舉了中國糧食危機無法避免、隨時爆發的十個理由。
袁隆平指出，儘管中國社會面臨很多危機，如政治、經濟、信仰、領土、社會等危機，但在有飯吃的情況下，都可以解決﹔一旦老百姓沒有飯吃了，或者食物短缺了，那麼就會天下大亂，包括政府，都會在食物危機面前蕩然無存。
吳先生：「要是出現大饑荒，就要動亂，農民就要造反。歷史上農民起義、農民造反都是出現饑荒以後的事情。」
不過，對於「糧荒危機」也有不同的解讀。
大陸農業研究人員：「關鍵是我們是與世界同步還是與世界為敵，我們目前是與世界為敵。如果我們與世界同步、與世界潮流一致，我們可以正常的交易，只要世界整個糧食危機不出現，就不是問題。」
這位不願透漏姓名的大陸農業研究人員認為，如果中國能與世界接軌，糧荒並不是大問題。
但吳先生指出，「糧荒」對中國是個壞事情，也是個好事情。從好事情來看，就是會倒逼社會改革。
採訪/易如 編輯/宋風 後製/孫寧
China’s food supply a serious concern
Recently, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held a rural
social work conference to discuss the so-called
No. 1 Document for next year.
The key question is how ensure food security.
Mainland media did not mention the previous objective
of continuously increasing the food supply.
Why did the CCP’s strategic objective of its No. 1 Document
switch from a focus on the Three Agricultural Problems
to place emphasis on the grain production problem?
Let’s look at the reports.
On Dec. 23 and 24, the CCP held a rural social work
conference to discuss the No. 1 Document for next year.
During the meeting, the CCP chose grain output, quality
and safety as the most important tasks.
The No. 1 Central file originally referred
to the first document issued by the CCP each year.
Now the document has become a way for the CCP
to stress rural issues.
Under such a premise, next year’s No. 1 Document
will adjust the self-sufficient rate of wheat, rice and corn.
Three major pieces of data being discussed are basic rations,
which would have a self-sufficiency rate of 100 percent,
cereals, for which the self-sufficiency rate remains above 90
percent, and China’s grain, whereby the overall self-
sufficiency remained above 80 percent for the long-term.
CCP media rarely mentions slogans such as “continuously
increase the food supply in 11 years" nor mentions
“China can rely on itself to achieve food self-sufficiency.”
According to the “national food security and long-term
strategy (2008-2020)", China’s grain self-sufficiency rate
is required to be at least 95 percent.
But Mainland “Economic Observer" news media outlet
quoted customs statistics that claimed that in 2012 China’s
grain imports reached 72.36 million tons which
is equivalent to 12 percent of China’s annual grain output.
The latest customs statistics of 2013 show China’s soybean
imports reached 6 million tons in November,
a record high during the month of November over the years.
The total soybean imports in the first 11 months
were 56 million tons, an increase of 7 percent.
Statistics also show that wheat imports in October of this year
increased 273 percent, a 16 percent increase from last year.
Mainland “Finance" magazine quoted data from the research
department of China’s imported farm products which relayed
that the quantity of grain, cotton and oil imports in 2010
was equivalent to about 700 million mu’s of foreign
cultivated land, which is the size of the entire
Heilongjiang province.
Chinese national agricultural expert Mr. Wu: “This is a social
problem.
Nobody cultivates the land or raises cows;
they all go to work in city.
Nobody labors in the village.”
Chinese national agricultural expert Mr. Wu said there
are two reasons that China lacks in grain production.
The first is that officials and businessmen import from
the United States, Brazil and other countries
at a cheaper price, which has affected farmers’ enthusiasm
for farming.
The second reason according to Mr. Wu is that technology
management and technical personel are not used.
Agricultural managers are corrupt and only consider money,
which has resulted in an agriculture imbalance, he says.
If people can’t afford to eat the unique traditional Chinese
staple – millet – there might be management issues.
Mr. Wu also believes that rural meetings are not held in the
countryside; no farmers attend, only officials are present.
With this, how can food security be guaranteed!
On Nov. 28, general secretary of the CCP Xi Jinping said
during a speech at a forum at the Shandong Academy
of Agricultural Sciences that the “heart
doesn’t panic with food in hand.”
He also said that money is useless once a great famine
takes place.
It is rumored that the “father of hybrid rice" in China,
Yuan Longping, commented on the Internet that China’s
biggest disaster can’t be avoided.
The article cited ten reasons the Chinese food crisis would
not be avoided and could erupt at any time.
Yuan Longping pointed out that although China faces many
social crises, such as politics, economy, religion, and territory,
the food crisis is urgent.
Once people are out of food or short of food, everything will
vanish including government.
Mr Wu: “If any major famine takes place, there would
be unrest and farmers would revolt.
Throughout history, peasant uprisings and revolt all happened
after famine.”
However, the “famine crisis" has a different meaning.
Continental agricultural researcher: “The key is whether
we are with the world or against the world.
We are currently against the world.
If we are with the world, and in line with the global trend,
we can have normal transaction.
As long as there is no food crisis in the world, it is not
a problem for us.”
A Mainland agricultural researcher who wished to remain
anonymous believes that if China can adapt
the international standard, the food crisis won’t
be a big problem.
Mr Wu pointed out that a famine is bad for China, but can
also be used for the good, as it will force social reform.
Interview/YiRu Edit/SongFeng Post-Production/SunNing