【新唐人2013年10月04日訊】前中共中央政治局常委、中央政法委書記周永康，近日在母校校慶時露面，引起海內外輿論的關注。被外界盛傳處於調查階段的周永康來說，有分析指出，校慶露面不等於說他就安全了，反而說明他前景不妙。我們來看時政觀察人士的分析。
中國石油大學網站10月1號的消息，在該校60週年校慶的時候，周永康回到母校。此次露面沒有任何高官陪同， 也沒有其他官媒報導。近日，周永康的心腹接連落馬，家族醜聞不斷被曝光，自身也深陷被調查的傳聞中。
時事評論員史達：「這一次周永康露面，說明他的前景相當不妙。記得當年薄熙來在出事前，在18大上的露臉。 結果不久就出事了，直到最近被公開審判。」
北京獨立學者高瑜：「薄熙來不就是去年的樣子嘛，去年3月9號，你看他多狂，根本證明不了薄熙來以後的被判刑。」
美國《自由亞洲電臺》引述中國政治學者分析，周永康露面並不表明周永康安全了，種種跡象表明，周永康是箭在弦上。
中國問題研究專家趙遠明：「他這個露面我看是一種權宜性的，不能說他是著陸了，這能說是習近平已經完全掌控他了。」
周永康在校慶的發言中，曾經三次提及習近平，時事評論員史達認為，這很像是公開表示「服軟」，不過為時已晚。
史達：「他們計劃的讓薄熙來在法庭上的翻供、一直不向習近平低頭，還可能有一些我們不知道的一些動作，等到今天才服軟，顯然已經沒用了。習近平重判了薄熙來，抓了周永康黨羽，還把其兒子軟禁，到這個地步，周永康就是真的想『服軟』也沒用了。何況這可能還是一個緩兵之計。 」
事實上，中共近年來被抓的貪官，在被調查期間也都出席過公開的活動。
在2011年大陸返鄉運輸最緊張的時刻，鐵道部部長劉志軍被免職。然而中國媒體在20分鐘之前，還在報導有關劉志軍視察鐵路工作的新聞。
2012年12月6號上午，原國家能源局局長，國家發展和改革委員會副主任劉鐵男，被《財經》雜誌副主編羅昌平在博客上實名舉報。就在當天，國家能源局還發通報說，劉鐵男正隨同國務院副總理、中紀委書記王岐山出訪俄羅斯。
此外，有海外媒體引述消息透露，周永康在中共十八大交卸權力以後，實際上處於被軟禁狀態。周之後的幾次露面，包括回到石油大學母校參加校慶，所有這些活動，都是經過專案組特批的。
消息來源指稱，周永康還享有一定活動的自由，是因為他還處在中紀委調查階段。如何處理周，中共總書記習近平還在權衡中，一直沒有在「雙規」周永康的報告上簽字。此外，兩週前在新加坡被中共國家安全人員監控的周永康的兒子周斌，在一週以前已經被押解回北京接受調查。
美國哥倫比亞大學政治學博士王軍濤分析，中共有三大理由拿下周永康，首先，周永康勾結薄熙來參與謀逆，威脅到中共新政權；第二，他是習近平高調反腐，打到政治局常委級的最適合人選。
王軍濤：「第三，周永康開始進入政法系統，暴力維穩機制是他建立的，包括整法輪功，暴力拆遷，所有這些東西都是周永康一手弄的，現在共產黨要轉變社會治理模式，它需要一個人為過去的東西承擔責任，周永康是理所當然做這個。」
香港《前哨》雜誌10月號披露，據接近中南海核心消息人士說，8月27號，習近平主持的中央政治局委員會議通過一項並未公開，卻絕對震撼的決議：十七屆常委周永康涉嫌嚴重違紀，一致同意對其進行立案調查。
採訪編輯/常春 後製/蕭宇
Analysis:
Zhou Yongkang’s Sudden Public Appearance Implies His Bad Situation
Former Politburo Standing Committee, Zhou Yongkang,
secretary of the Central Politics and Law Commission, has
attracted the attention of the media domestically and globally
with his appearance at his alma mater’s anniversary.
Rumor has it that he is under investigation.
Analysts point out that his appearance at the anniversary
does not mean he is safe, but that his future doesn’t look bright.
Let’s look at the analysis of current political observers.
October 1st, China Petroleum University website news said
Zhou Yongkang went back to participate in his alma mater’s
60th anniversary celebration.
No senior officials accompanied him and no other
official media reported his appearance.
Recently, Zhou Yongkang’s henchman have fallen
ceaselessly horse, and his family scandals have been exposed.
It’s rumored that he himself is under investigation.
This time, Zhou Yongkang’s appearance means his future
doesn’t look bright.
Remember that Bo Xilai was in trouble and was recently
put on public trial after showing at the eighteenth national congress.
Beijing independent scholar Gao Yu: “Last year’s Bo Xilai
is an example.
On March 9th, 2013, how pretentious Bo Xilai was!
You can’t imagine he is sentenced after that."
US Radio Free Asia quoted Chinese a political science
analyst who said Zhou Yongkang’s appearance does not mean he is safe.
There are indications that Zhou Yongkang reached the point
of no return.
China issues expert Zhao Yuanming: “I think his appearance
is just an expedient and he is not safe.
It can be said that Xi Jiping totally controlled him and it was
premature to take any action."
Zhou Yongkang mentioned Xi Jinping three times
in his speech at the anniversary.
Commentator Shi Da believes that it’s more like
a public apology, even though it was too late.
Shi Da: “They had planned to let Bo Xilai retract in court
and not bow to Xi Jinping.
There might be some actions also we do not know about.
Obviously, Zhou Yongkang regrets today are useless.
At this point, even Zhou Yongkang’s true regret is useless,
and it may still be a stall tactic."
In fact, the CCP’s corrupt officials who were arrested
can also attend public events while under investigation.
In 2011, the busiest Chinese New Year travel season,
the railway minister Liu Zhijun was dismissed.
However, 20 minutes ago, Chinese media still reported
that Liu Zhijun is still inspecting railroads.
On the morning of December 6th, 2012, the former State
Energy Bureau, National Development and Reform
Commission director Liu Tienan was real name reported
by Finance magazine subeditor Luo Changping on the blog.
On the same day, the National Energy Board also informed
that Liu Tienan is accompanying Vice Premier and central
disciplinary committee secretary Wang Qishan to visit Russia.
In addition, some overseas media quoted sources and said
that Zhou Yongkang is under house arrest after relinquishing his power at the eighteenth national congress.
Zhou’s several appearances including back to University
of Petroleum to participate in its anniversary are all specially authorized by the special investment team.
The source alleged the reason that Zhou Yongkang still has
certain freedom of activity is because he is still under investigation by the Central Discipline Inspection Commission.
The CPC General Secretary Xi Jinping is still trying to deal
with Zhou in balance and has not signed the Shuanggui (detained and interrogated within the CCP) report.
In addition, Zhou Bin, Zhou Yongkang’s son, was sent
to Beijing to be investigated under escort and he was
monitored by the CPC national security in Singapore
two weeks ago.
Columbia University graduate of political science,
Dr. Wang Juntao, analyzed that there are three reasons to take Zhou Yongkang
down.
First of all, in collusion with Bo Xilai, Zhou Yongkang
threatened the new CCP regime.
Second, he is the best person in the Politburo-level
that Xi fights corruption to.
Wang Juntao: “Thirdly, since Zhou Yongkang was in charge
of the Politics and Law Committee, he established a brutal stability maintainance system.
It includes the persecution of Falun Gong
and forcible demolitions.
All these were set up by Zhou.
Now the CCP intends to change its model
of social management, and it needs someone to take the blame.
Zhou certainly is the one."
Hong Kong’s Front-Line magazine’s latest issue cited
sources close to Zhongnanhai that said on August 27,
Xi Jinping hosted a Politburo meeting and passed
an undisclosed but absolutely shocking resolution.
The member of the seventh session of the Standing
Committee, Zhou Yongkang, is suspected of seriously
violating discipline and agreed to do investigation.