【新唐人2013年08月01日訊】最近，中國大陸的房地產市場出現一種混亂現象，一方面，房地產商大量低價拋售房屋套現，另一方面，房價出現報復性反彈，千人搶房潮在各地湧現。大陸社會前一段時間出現「錢荒」並伴隨股市大跌以後，外界認為接下來應當是房地產市場出現重大調整。那麼，現在出現這類與「錢荒」相背離的現象是甚麼原因呢？請看本臺記者的報導。

自6月下旬，中國社會出現錢荒之後，股市也發生了巨大波動，然而，統計局調查的數據顯示，中國房地產市場仍然處於上漲通道。指數報告顯示，6月份，房價相對於去年，上漲了一成，一線城市的房價上漲幅度更是領「漲」全國，達到了兩成。杭州、深圳、上海、南京等幾個具有樓市風向標意義的城市，卻再度出現住房搶購潮。

有業內人士認為，目前的搶房潮湧現，屬於「報復性反彈」。

《中華工商時報》對這種房價上漲的現象也曾撰文分析說，搶房潮背後都有「房託」身影。

美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田：「實際上他們在做最後一個賭博的時候，繼續僱傭一大批房託，來製造一種恐慌，一方面給中央政府一個下馬威，另一方面再度造成百姓的恐慌情緒，希望把房市繼續炒熱起來。」

廣州近郊一別墅樓盤上週五開盤，推出特價房發售，最低價別墅28萬起價，當天迎來超過3萬人的人流。另一廣州近郊公寓樓，推出一口價的幾十萬元起價的特價房，很多廣州買家表示撿到了「白菜價」。

謝田：「我認為價格崩盤已經開始，如果繼續下去，房地產泡沫整個破滅已經在進行之中。」

北京市在剛過去的週末，開售的3個樓盤，其中兩個成為即日閃電售罄的「日光盤」。

「我愛我家」置業顧問盧趙凱告訴《新唐人》，儘管控制房價的政策不斷出臺，稅收也已經很高，但是自08年以後，北京房價一直在上漲。

我愛我家置業顧問盧趙凱：「各個城市都往北京聚集，北京高官也比較多，都在北京買房子，房價自然會漲，再一點，北京三環四環哪有空地買房子，只能買二手房，但二手房好房子人家不賣，想買的話，那必須出高價錢才能買得著。」

據分析，這一方面是存在剛性需求的購房者及時出手，使得開發商資金鍊短缺局面得到了緩解，另一方面，大量的理財產品、民間資金以及銀行信貸深度介入了房地產市場，加上超過700億的海外融資，使得「錢荒」似乎沒有燒到房地產市場的「眉毛」，另外，中共超額發行鈔票也自然促使房價上漲。

經濟學者芧於軾：「我猜想，財富的分配集中在少數人手裡，他們怕通貨膨脹，錢要貶值，所以就買房。」

大陸房地產「大砲」任志強在「錢荒」當時，曾經提出「錢荒影響房價論」。任志強認為，長期錢荒一定影響地產行業，沒錢拿地，會惡化房市的供求關係，導致房價上漲。

不過北京「天則經濟研究所」副所長馮興元認為，中共正在試點繳收房產稅，房地產商囤積了很多住房，老闆們為了規避房產稅，或許提前打折賣出。

採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/李勇

China: Cash Shortage, Rising Housing Prices

Recently, China’s real estate market appeared chaotic.

On the one hand, sellers sell houses at a low price for cash;

on the other hand, thousands of buyers rush to buy houses.

Not long ago, a cash shortage in China was followed

by a stock market crash.

The public speculates that a major real estate market

adjustment should take place next.

What’s the reason behind it?

Let’s take a look.

In late June, China’s stock market underwent tremendous

fluctuations after the banks’ shortage of cash.

However, national statistics show that

housing prices still went up.

In June, housing prices increased 10% year-on-year.

In first-tier cities, new home prices went

up 20% year-on-year.

In several leading cities such as Hangzhou, Shanghai,

and Nanjing, people rush to purchase their homes.

Insiders said that the current phenomenon, with so many

people buying homes, is a “retaliatory rebound.”

Xie Tian, professor at Aiken Business School, University

of South Carolina: “This is the last gamble.

They hire fake buyers to create panic, so as to press

the government, and established a panic environment for home buyers.

Thus, they can continue to raise housing prices.”

Last Friday, apartments located in a suburb of Guangzhou

went on the market starting from 280,000 yuan (US$45,600).

On the same day, they received

more than 30,000 visitors.

In another area in Guangzhou, a special offer was given

on apartments, which started from several tens of thousands of yuan.

Many buyers expressed happiness for the cheap deal.

Xie Tian: “I believe the price crash has begun.

The entire real estate bubble burst is already underway.”

Last week in Beijing, three apartment buildings went up

for sale, and two of them sold on the listing day.

Lu Zhaokai, a property consultant, told NTD that although

the government continues to adopt a housing price control

policy and charge high taxes, since 2008, Beijing’s

home prices have been constantly increasing.

Lu Zhaokai: “People are gathering to Beijing.

Many senior officials live in Beijing.

They bought homes in Beijing,

and housing prices certainly went up.

In Beijing’s third and fourth ring areas,

people only have a chance to buy an old house.

If the old property is too good, it’s normally not for sale,

if you want to buy it, you need to pay a high price.”

Sources said that some home buyers rigid demand to buy

thus helping sellers to ease fund shortage problem.

A large amount of financial products, private funds and

banks loans were deeply infused into the housing market,

coupled with 70 billion yuan (US$11.4m)

of foreign financing.

A money shortage doesn’t seem to damage

the housing market.

The government’s release of large bank notes are also

pushing the housing prices up.

Economist Mao Yushi: “I suspect that the distribution

of the wealth is concentrated in a few hands.

They worry about inflation, the devaluation of money,

thus they bought properties.”

China’s entrepreneur Ren Zhiqiang has said that

“a cash shortage would effect housing prices.”

Ren believes that a long-term money shortage would

certainly influence the real estate industry.

Without money occupying the land, the housing market’s

supply and demand will worsen, causing housing prices to rise.

Feng Xingyuan, deputy director of Beijing

Unirule Institute of Economics, said that

since the Chinese Communist Party is piloting

a property tax plan,

real estate sellers who owned many homes over the years

may sell houses at a discount in order to avoid paying tax.