【新唐人2013年07月03日訊】近日有媒體引述中共中央黨校主辦的《學習時報》副編審鄧聿文的觀點，認為中共總書記習近平任期內至少會有兩次劇烈的社會運動發生，還有可能倒逼高層開啟真正的民主化進程。但外界評論指出，中共能維繫10年是假命題，目前危機四伏的中共政權隨時可能倒臺。
鄧聿文認為，習近平的任期內雖不至於爆發類似「八九學潮」那樣的運動，但是至少會有兩次劇烈的危機發生：一次是在未來4到5年，會發生一次中等程度的社會危機。如果這次危機過後沒有任何改變，在習任期的末尾與下一屆領導人交接班時，還會有一次更大規模的社會動盪。他還認為，農民工和失業大學生將成為社會動盪的主要群體。
鄧聿文表示，爆發大規模社會運動的重要前提是中共黨內出現類似趙紫陽、胡耀邦這樣的反對派。在這種前提下，一種可能是反對派被當局壓制下去，短暫的和平可能換來未來更劇烈的動盪﹔另一種是在反對派的倒逼下，中共真正開啟民主化的進程。
紐約民主大學校長唐柏僑分析，中共目前危機重重，新疆、西藏以及大陸民眾維權抗暴此起彼伏，哪一件都危及中共政權。唐伯僑認為，說中共5年、10年才有危機，與事實不符。
民主大學校長唐柏僑：「中共的人，它的智囊其實已經知道可能他們熬不過3、5年了，但是它會假惺惺的說10年以後中共會有甚麼危機。人們接受它的觀點的話，說中共至少10年之內它不會倒臺，還會維持現有的這個體制，這種道理一定要警惕。因為無論從哪個角度講，中共都沒有10年的壽命，幾乎是毫無疑問的。」
唐柏僑指出，只有一些迂腐的中共學者會認為中共還能維持超過10年，但也有一些認識到中共時間不多了的學者，反而會故意給老百姓放煙幕彈，弱化中共危機。
中國知名歷史學者章立凡也不讚同鄧聿文對未來社會運動發生時間的預測，他認為在經濟崩潰時，任何一個偶發事件都會促生大的動盪。
章立凡向《德國之聲》指出，如果經濟出現滑坡，中共合法性的問題就會出來。現在已經開始出現『貨幣問題』、就業問題等。目前經濟增長已經找不到亮點了，如果強行推行城鎮化政策的話，有可能會出現對農民的新一輪掠奪，就會出現更大的問題。
旅美政治評論家陳破空表示，目前中國幾百個城市已經出現工業產能嚴重過剩、樓房大量空置、火車站、機場和購物中心閒置等問題，而新一輪的城市化建設會帶來像強行拆遷、賠償不公、耕地流失、糧食日益依賴進口、城市失業率猛增、民眾洶湧抗議等很多問題。
旅美政治評論家陳破空：「盲目和重復建設，在『城市化』的名義下，惡性循環，還積纍出日趨嚴重的債務危機。據中國國家審計署公布的審計結果（2013年6月）：36個地方政府，債務合計近3.85萬億人民幣，其中，16個地區債務率超100%，債務率最高達219%。地方政府瀕臨破產邊緣。」
陳破空認為，中國經濟積纍形成了三大泡沫：房市泡沫，債務泡沫，貿易泡沫，已經醞釀著嚴重的經濟危機。
時事評論員邢天行：「經濟現在已經到了崩潰的邊緣上。大規模的、劇烈的社會運動是不可避免是要發生的。在這樣一種中共不肯修正它既有的政治體制問題的時候，必然會發生這個問題。」
時事評論員刑天行表示，中國當前的全面社會危機和愈演愈烈的天災人禍，與歷史上每次改朝換代時是相似的，甚至有過之而無不及。只要中共惡政持續下去，就會不可避免的重蹈歷史覆轍。
採訪/陳漢 編輯/宋風 後製王明宇
Two Crises of Xi’s Administration
Recently, some media quoted the view of Deng Yuwen,
the deputy editor of Study Times, sponsored by Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) Central Party School,
that the CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping
will have at least two violent social movements,
which may ultimately force the high level
CCP to begin the process of democratization.
But outsiders commented that it is a false proposition
that the CCP will be able to maintain itself for 10 years,
and the current crisis-ridden Communist regime
might fall at any time.
Deng believes that during Xi’s term, although it is
unlikely a movement similar to ‘6-4’ event will erupt,
there will be two severe crises.
In the next four to five years, a moderate degree
of social crisis may happen.
If there is no change after this crisis,
at the end of Xi’s term,
there will be even more massive social unrest during
the succession of the next generation of leaders.
He also believes migrant workers and unemployed college
students will become the main groups of social unrest.
Deng Yuwen said that the important prerequisite
of a large-scale social movement outbreak is that
an opposing group appears within the CCP,
like Zhao Ziyang and Hu Yaobang.
In this context, a possibility is the opposing group
would be suppressed by authorities,
and be offered short-term peace in exchange
for more intense turbulence in the future;
another is under the threat of the opposition, the CCP
can truly open the process of democratization.
President Tang Baiqiao of New York Democracy University
analyzed that the CCP currently has many crises on their hands.
People rise up to protect their own rights one after another
in Xinjiang, Tibet, as well as in Mainland, any of which could threaten the regime.
Tang Boqiao believes that it is not true to say that
the CCP will only have crises in five or ten years.
Tang Boqiao: “The CCP, its think tank, actually has already known
that the CCP could not survive the next three to five years.
But they hypocritically talk about the CCP might
have crises in 10 years.
If people accept its view, the view that the CCP will exist
for at least 10 years, the existing system will be maintained.
We should be vigilant. No matter from any perspective,
there is no doubt that the CCP cannot last 10 more years.”
Tang Boqiao pointed out that only some pedantic scholars
would say that the CCP is able to maintain itself for more than 10 years.
Some scholars know the CCP is dying, but still deliberately
show a smoke screen to the people, weakening the CCP crisis.
Well known Chinese historian Zhang Lifan will not endorse
Deng’s predictive timeline of future social movements.
In his opinion, when economic collapse occurs,
any episodic event will cause great turbulence.
Zhang Lifan pointed out for Deutsche Welle that
if the CCP has an economic downturn,
questions of the legality of the CCP will emerge.
Now currency issues and employment issues are emerging.
In the current economic growth, no good news
has been heard.
If implementing urbanization policies are forced, there may
be a new round of looting on farmers, causing bigger problems.
Political commentator Chen Pokong in the US said that
at present, in hundreds of Chinese cities,
due to seriously excessive industrial production,
a large number of vacant buildings, railway stations,
airports and shopping malls are idle.
A new round of urban construction will bring many issues,
like forced demolition, unjust compensation,
arable land loss, increasing dependence on grain imports,
soaring urban unemployment, and public protests.
Chen Pokong: “Blind and redundant construction
in the name of urbanization has caused a vicious cycle,
and accumulated a worsening debt crisis.
According to the results published by China
National Audit Office in June 2013,
36 local governments have a total debt
of nearly 3.85 trillion yuan,
of which 16 regions have a debt ratio over 100%,
with the highest debt ratio up to 219%.
Local government is on the verge of bankruptcy.”
Chen Pokong said that China’s economic bubbles
had formed, including the housing bubble, debt bubble,
trade bubble, which has been brewing for a serious
economic crisis.
Commentator Xing Tianxing:
“The economy is now on the brink of collapse.
Massive and violent social movement is inevitable.
When the CCP refuses to fix its political system,
these problems are bound to appear."
Commentator Xing Tianxing said that
China’s current overall social crisis and intensified
natural disasters are similar to those in history when the regime changed, or even greater.
As long as the CCP bad governance continues,
it will inevitably repeat mistakes in history.